Contents
CONTENTS
04 THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND
06 RECAP OF 2020 PREDICTIONS
08 TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2021

10 PREDICTION 1

Education in the 21st century
12 PREDICTION 2

The new patient-doctor relationship
14 PREDICTION 3

I want it NOW e-commerce
16 EXPERT VIEW

Ruslan Fazlyev, Ecwid
18 PREDICTION 4

The next social network
20 PREDICTION 5

Consumers taking control of privacy
22 PREDICTION 6

Survival of the fittest
24 EXPERT VIEW

Lindsay Cook, FitOn
26 PREDICTION 7

Cash is no longer king
28 PREDICTION 8

The future of work
30 PREDICTION 9

Martech all-in on customer experience
32 EXPERT VIEW

Lindsay Willott, Customer Thermometer
34 PREDICTION 10

Epic’s ultimate battle royale…with Apple
36 A LOOK BACK AT PAST

PREDICTIONS
40 METHODOLOGY
45 DISCLAIMER

3
THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND
The view
FROM GP BULLHOUND
PER
ROMAN
MANAGING PARTNER
BRANDON
OVERMYER
OKAN
INALTAY
ALEC
DAFFERNER
VICE PRESIDENT
ASSOCIATE
PARTNER
ASSISTANT
OLIVIA
HORNSTEIN
DANIEL
ROBERTS
ANALYST
MINYA
SHIDHAYE
ANALYST
ANALYST
MATTHEW
YOUNG
4
THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND
In its fourteenth year, our Technology Predictions
report analyses how the latest trends and the leading
visionaries in these ecosystems are shaping our future. Our
methodology in selecting the coming year’s predictions
is shaped directly by our experience in working with
the world’s leading entrepreneurs and cutting-edge
technologies, balanced with unique market insight
gathered across our global network.
Perhaps different than in recent years, given that we have
not experienced this type of market volatility since 2008-
2009, we expect the predictions we feature for 2021 to
accelerate at an even more rapid pace due to the nature
of the drivers around public health risk and societal shifts
emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ultimate winner today is the consumer. From online
shopping, payments and fitness, to how companies are
fighting to understand and retain us, technology is keeping
companies alive and perhaps permanently changing
our behaviour patterns. We expect sustained and even
increasing demand in each of these spaces next year and
beyond as more consumers become comfortable with
operating online. Expect tough competition among those
aiming to provide easy-to-use platforms and services.
As consumers and software lovers, however, one big
question that many are trying to solve is how we can keep
our data safe. Rather than a differentiator for technology
companies, privacy controls will become standard in the
future. This issue is even more important given how many
work remotely today and our dependence on technology
to communicate and collaborate. The office is certainly
not a thing of the past, but it may look a little different in
the future. We expect employers to restructure their work
models to include more remote options or a hybrid of
remote and office.
While communication in general is ever-improving with
technology, how we socialise has seen the most radical
change. Enter the next social network: gaming. Think less
phone calls and instead more unique universes where
you can spend time with friends and family on an island in
Animal Crossing. Now enjoyed by the masses, with gaming
you only need one device to access the world.
Two previously stagnant sectors, education and healthcare,
are also undergoing much needed transformations as a
result of the world being forced to move further online.
Everyone in the world needs access to both, and tech
is finally modernising these systems. Again, companies
providing easy-to-use platforms will continue to redesign
these crucial services.
The last trend featured for 2021 is Epic’s battle with Apple.
Developers, who build the software we enjoy and rely on,
are challenging the leverage of tech giant ecosystems and
fighting for equal rights, such as payment rakes. Time will
tell what the future brings to maintain harmony between
the two, but needless to say that Apple will need to zero in
on a better middle ground.
Core to our mission at GP Bullhound, in this year’s report
we also feature three interviews with true trendsetters
using tech for good in their fields to help shape the future
of technology: Ruslan Fazlyev, CEO of Ecwid; Lindsay
Cook, Co-founder & CEO of FitOn; and Lindsay Willott,
Founder of Customer Thermometer.
The world has come to learn just how much we rely on
technology to help traverse one of the most difficult
periods in history. At GP Bullhound we are proud to work
with innovative, world-leading companies and their
visionaries transforming innovative ideas into reality. We
hope our 2021 tech predictions help you to navigate the
opportunities and challenges to come.
5
THE PREDICTIONS
RELATIONAL DATABASES MAKE WAY FOR
DATA LAKES
COMPANIES TURNING TO VERTICALISED
AI SOLUTIONS TO SOLVE REAL
BUSINESS CHALLENGES
AI/ML SHOWING QUANTIFIABLE
RESULTS IN MARKETING
Source: (1) Rayome, A. (2019, 20 June) Why 85% of AI projects fail. TechRepublic. Retrieved from www.techrepublic.com; (2) Maximize Market Research. (2020, 2 November)
Artificial intelligence (AI) in marketing market: Industry analysis & forecast (2019-2027). Bipartisan Millennial. Retrieved from www.bipartisanmillennial.com
Recap of GP Bullhound’s
2020 PREDICTIONS
The huge acceleration of digital transformation in the
global economy has meant that demand for sophisticated
data processes has skyrocketed. As organisations
increasingly seek differentiation through the utilisation
of existing and new data, accessibility and the way that
data is stored have become hugely important, with data
lakes clearly demonstrating supremacy over relational
databases and other legacy products. While there has
been significant uptake in working with unstructured data
sets, relational databases will yet remain an important
component for organisations the foreseeable future.
This trend has been proven in 2020, as businesses
continue to struggle with their enterprise-wide AI
strategies. Instead, point solutions and AI integrated into
vendor software is where it is having the most impact
on companies. According to Pactera Technologies,
85% of AI projects fail to deliver the intended results to
enterprises (1), with many failing due to the inability to
integrate AI models into existing systems/architecture.
Until this skills gap is bridged, most businesses will
continue to use purpose-built AI tools to solve specific
business needs.
As all things in our lives become increasingly digital,
consumer spending is increasingly happening on digital
channels. E-commerce has grown rapidly during COVID-19
and as a result, marketers are turning to data-driven,
highly personalised campaigns and content. According
to a recent study of 600 executives, 9 out of 10
companies use AI to improve customer journeys (2). With
increasingly accessible and analysable data, this adoption
of technology to more accurately target consumers and
improve ROI is set to continue.
THE WAR IN STREAMING FILM AND
VIDEO ESCALATING TO A FRENZY
Content consumption in the age of COVID has
skyrocketed, impacting the media industry and society in
an even bigger way than we could have predicted. While
Netflix remains the anchor streaming platform for most
people, we have witnessed the meteoric rise of other
major contenders such as Disney, Apple and HBO. And
importantly, while it seems as though a multi-platform
approach is being widely adopted by consumers willing to
pay for multiple services to access the premium content
they want to consume, we continue to see increased
offers to bundle premium services from the likes of Apple,
Amazon, and AT&T, among others.
6
THE PREDICTIONS
Sources: (1) Kaplan, O. (2019, 22 August) Mobile gaming is a $68.5 billion global business, and investors are buying in. TechCrunch. Retrieved from www.techcrunch.com; (2)
Hamilton, J. (2020, 21 September) Xbox Game Pass Subscriptions Have Shot Up By 50% Over The Past 6 Months. Screen Rant. Retrieved from www.screenrant.com; (3) Pratt, M.
(2020, 9 October) 4 edge computing trends to watch in 2020 and future. TechTarget, SearchCIO. Retrieved from www.searchcio.techtarget.com
GAMING EMBRACES THE ERA OF
SUBSCRIPTION AND STREAMING
CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
TAKES CENTRE STAGE
5G LANDGRAB: THE RACE FOR
COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENT OF 5G
THE EDGE OF TOMORROW
APPLE A13 BIONIC SETS THE
PRECEDENT FOR ON-DEVICE AI/
MACHINE LEARNING TECHNOLOGY
EVERYTHING AS A SERVICE
While there are still some technical limitations preventing
the mass adoption of game streaming, particularly on
mobile (now close to half of the $152bn global gaming
market (1)), console gaming and PC gaming has fully
embraced streaming and subscription models. Xbox
Game Pass reached 15m subscribers as of September
2020, ahead of Sony, Nvidia and other competitors,
helped by the addition of new games and expansion onto
multiple platforms (2). As these trends continue (boosted
by COVID) we expect streaming and subscriptions to
become the default way games are consumed and
purchased.
Customers of B2B and B2C brands are demanding
corporate social responsibility. Technology is empowering
organisations to unify their CSR efforts and simplify these
initiatives, leading to greater transparency and a more
efficient supply chain. We are seeing fast growth in the
market for CSR software, and we believe this will be
boosted by increasing awareness and greater adoption of
CSR initiatives and technology in the APAC region.
5G touches virtually every aspect of the communication
ecosystem and is still in its infancy with regards to
adoption. However, the rollout continues apace with
increasingly more devices enabled for 5G and the
networks expanding their 5G capabilities as quickly as
possible to as much of the population as they can to
establish leadership in the space. Huawei’s global 5G
hardware dominance has been dented by geopolitical
priorities, yet tower companies are forging ahead with
their chosen partners to upgrade our current telecoms
infrastructure. It remains to be seen who will be the
winners in each category, but there is no doubt the race
for 5G is in full swing.
The edge computing software market is growing very
rapidly, and it is no surprise as to why. By 2025, 55.9bn
connected devices will generate more than 79 ZB of
data (up from 13 ZB in 2019) (3), signifying the increasing
importance of running data-intensive processes on
devices and how that can have significant business
outcomes. With edge computing receiving a significant
boost from widespread availability of 5G networks, we are
seeing existing and new businesses increasingly building
solutions to serve this growing need and adoption.
Apple’s A13-Bionic chip represented an unprecedented
incremental leap in on-device mobile compute capability,
allowing the tech giant to shape the feature set of the
next-gen smartphone with machine learning. Not only
has Apple followed up with an even more powerful A14
Bionic using an industry-first 5nm manufacturing process,
but 2020 also saw the release of Samsung’s substantially
upgraded Exynos 990 chip, Huawei’s latest Kirin 820,
and Qualcomm’s powerful Snapdragon 865 Plus variant,
which is found in a variety of Android devices. While
Apple continues to rule the roost in terms of compute
power and graphical capabilities, the competitive gap has
somewhat narrowed for 2021.
There is no greater proof that this prediction has become
reality than the fact that pet owners can now buy grass
for pets to relieve themselves, as-a-service. While this
is one of the more amusing examples, it is true that the
benefits of an as-a-service model are clear and becoming
widely adopted. Dell recently announced it is moving
all products to as-a-service models, in recognition that
IT spending is transitioning from CAPEX to OPEX and
businesses ever changing needs are better addressed by
agile solution delivery and packages.
7
Note: (1) 2020, July. Education Technology Market Size Report, 2020-2027. Grand View Research. Retrieved from www.grandviewresearch.com
Technology Predictions
2021
EDUCATION IN THE 21ST CENTURY
I WANT IT NOW E-COMMERCE
THE NEW PATIENT-DOCTOR
RELATIONSHIP
THE NEXT SOCIAL NETWORK
Over the course of more than a decade, GP Bullhound’s Technology Predictions report has established
a reputation as an industry-leading analysis of the trends and innovations shaping the global technology
sector. What follows are the 10 trends we believe will define tech in 2021.
The pandemic has revealed the escalating need
for smarter education, everywhere, as well as how
students, teachers and parents can benefit from
the solutions technology can provide. With the
tech education market slated to surge by 18%
each year (1), there will be endless advancements
and adoption of education tech worldwide.
There is a paradigm shift in e-commerce, despite
today’s macroeconomic challenges, with more
diverse demographics embracing the ease of
shopping online. We expect sustained demand
into the future as more diverse demographics and
geographies are increasingly accustomed to easy
buying and faster delivery or pickup for everything
from groceries, medication, and consumer staples,
to discretionary products.
Healthcare is undergoing a much needed
revolution the world over. As patients continue
to shift away from traditional in-person medical
visits to telemedicine and virtual care, we will
see increased investments in health systems
that utilise telehealth tools and rapid growth for
companies providing easy-to-use platforms for
patients and doctors.
Video games have significantly evolved since
PAC-MAN graced our screens, as has the social
dynamic of gaming. The multitude of platforms
means better access, connecting the masses.
worldwide. Visiting and speaking with friends can
all be done through gaming – all that is needed is
one console, PC or phone, to access the world.
1
3
2
4
THE PREDICTIONS
8
SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST
MARTECH ALL-IN ON CUSTOMER
EXPERIENCE
CONSUMERS TAKING CONTROL OF
PRIVACY
EPIC’S ULTIMATE BATTLE
ROYALE… WITH APPLE
Digital fitness is a new star in the global consumer
subscription software ecosystem. Traditional gyms
and fitness centres had to move online to survive
when the pandemic hit, and while some may see
this as a temporary business glitch, online fitness
will be a permanent diversification as individuals
have quickly adapted to at-home fitness.
The personalised digital customer experience
is setting brands apart globally, and customer
data is key. This is a rapidly transforming space,
with increasing demand and likely future
consolidation, as the convergence of marketing,
customer experience and cloud communications
gains momentum.
As consumers we have enjoyed our personalised
experiences from software tools for some
time, but is our data safe? Many are asking this
question and some are even opting out of the
personalisation benefits in favour of more privacy.
Not only will products offering privacy controls be
a differentiator for tech companies, they will be
the new standard for consumers in the future.
App developers have taken a stand against Apple
and its payment rake, one of its more significant
revenue streams, and the list of developers
fighting for equal opportunity is growing. While
Apple has slashed its fee by 50% for its small-
developer base – a move we expected for some
time – will it be enough? Is this more fuel for Epic’s
fire? We expect the tech giant to further change
its app developer approach as more companies
challenge its immense ecosystem leverage.
5
9
6
10
THE PREDICTIONS
CASH IS NO LONGER KING
THE FUTURE OF WORK
No longer just for techies, digital wallets and
payments are now mainstream. Moreover, it
is no longer a space just for start-ups. Major
tech players are entering the race for the
rapid advancement in digital banking across
geographies in developed and emerging markets.
Expect more countries to join Sweden on its path
to be the world’s first cashless nation.
Employers are rethinking the future of the office
with the ever-increasing reliance on collaboration
tools as well as rapid, successful adoption of
communication and collaboration tools within their
organisations for optimal productivity. The future
of work is bright, and we expect more remote and
hybrid models post-pandemic.
7
8
9
PREDICTION 1
10
Source: HolonIQ (as of 8 October 2020) Note: (1) 2020, August. COVID-19: Are children able to continue learning during school closures? A global analysis of the potential reach of
remote learning policies. Unicef. Retrieved from www.data.unicef.org; (2) 2020, July. Education Technology Market Size Report, 2020-2027. Grand View Research. Retrieved from www.
grandviewresearch.com; (3) Bursztynsky, J. (2020, 31 July) The coronavirus pandemic helped boost Apple’s iPad and Mac sales. CNBC. Retrieved from www.cnbc.com.
PREDICTION 1
Education in the 21st century
ONLINE EDUCATION / E-LEARNING RAPIDLY EVOLVING
Over 90% of countries have implemented remote learning policies due to the pandemic, but at least 463m students worldwide
remain cut off from education, mainly due to a lack of such policies or equipment (1). Online education and e-learning platforms
aim to provide stable groundwork for students, teachers and parents to be taught and teach outside of the traditional classroom.
As each generation becomes more technologically savvy, adapting to technology-based learning platforms has come at an
opportune time as different countries globally grapple with the correct way to bring students back in person, while continuing
online education.
Many students learn at different paces, and companies such as BYJU, based in India, create personalised learning programmes
for children, based on their proficiency. For younger students, Boddle Learning and Vooks integrate gaming and education,
motivating academics through online entertainment while teaching critical skills. In 2019, the global education technology market
was valued at $76.4bn, with a CAGR of 18.1% from 2020 to 2027 (2).
Google Classroom facilitates and streamlines student and teacher organisation with an easy-to-use application, accessible
from all devices. ‘The dog ate my homework!’ is no longer an excuse, as this service also mitigates the risk of students losing
assignments or readings. As students benefit from online education platforms, companies such as Seesaw assist teachers and
parents in integrating and becoming more helpful in the transitional process. Similarly, Miro is an online whiteboard platform
that enables accessibility for students to collaborate virtually. Online education and e-learning platforms are made possible by
the hardware they are used with. Apple iPad sales dramatically increased as students were forced to learn at home beginning
in 2020, and analysts note that Apple’s Mac and iPad units are ‘actually benefiting nicely’ from the pandemic due to increased
remote work and learning trends (3).
The pandemic has shown that many education systems were stagnant and that technology can provide many benefits, such
as allowing streamlined and creatively managed sophisticated systems for all. We expect to see continued adoption of remote
learning and general technological advancements in the classroom when the pandemic recedes.
GLOBAL EDUCATION VC FUNDING,
2010-Q3 2020 ($BN)
$8.3BN OF GLOBAL EDTECH VC 2020
AFTER Q3 ($BN)
4.2
0.7
3.2
0.9
4.4
1.3
8.2
1.8
7.0
8.3
2010
2015
2011
2016
2012
2017
2013
2018
2014
2019
2020
0.5
20.3
12.5
3.8
2.0
2.1
CHINA
USA
INDIA
EUROPE
ROW
11
PREDICTION 2
12
Source: Butcher, L. (2020, 17 June) Telemedicine’s tipping point. Knowable Magazine. Retrieved from www.knowablemagazine.com. Note: (1) 2020, May. Telehealth—A Technology-Based
Weapon in the War Against the Coronavirus, 2020. Frost & Sullivan. Retrieved from www.go.frost.com; (2) Jercich, K. (2020, 6 May) Telehealth has staying power, should benefit from lasting
regulatory changes. Healthcare IT News. Retrieved from www.healthcareitnews.com; (3) Bainbridge, R. (2020, 7 Jul) Telemedicine - breaking down the barriers to change. International Travel &
Health Insurance Journal, Issue 234. Retrieved from www.itij.com.
The new patient-doctor
relationship
TELEHEALTH / HEALTHTECH BRINGING BACK THE HOUSE CALL
There has been a relatively recent shift away from in-person medical visits in favour of telemedicine. Patients are increasingly opting
into using video and photo images to describe their symptoms to physicians instead of the now cumbersome task of scheduling an
in-person visit. Patients are also realising that they can receive certain types of high-quality care more safely and efficiently through
telehealth tools. Frost and Sullivan estimates a sevenfold growth in telehealth by 2025 – a five-year CAGR of 38.2% (1).
This forecast is further supported by a recent study in the Journal of the American Informatics Association, which illustrated how
virtual urgent care visits at NYU Langone Health grew by 683% and non-urgent virtual-care visits grew by a staggering 4,345%
between 2 March and 14 April this year (2). Cigna, the large insurance conglomerate, disclosed that the number downloads of its
telehealth app rose by 130% and logins increased by 134% between February and March 2020, while telehealth customer usage
increased by 514% globally during the same period (3). As a result of the pandemic, we expect the patient-doctor relationship to
permanently change as different technological tools come to replace or enhance many of tasks carried out by physicians today.
Conversational AI will likewise be increasingly utilised to answer patient questions and scheduling without much need for staff
support. As more routine check-ups are carried out over video or phone, telehealth will become a more integral part of the patient-
doctor relationship. Moreover, ancillary components of technology, such as video camera and video platform streaming latency, are
set to benefit from widespread 5G adoption as more sensitive healthcare conversations that require high-quality imagery are carried
out over video. These changes in habits are likely to lead to increased investment in digital and diagnostic tools to make medical
care more readily available in areas where conventional healthcare infrastructure cannot currently reach. We expect increased
enrolments for health systems that embrace telehealth tools and rapid growth for the companies that provide an easy-to-use
platform for patients and doctors.
PREDICTION 2
TELEMEDICINE ADOPTION DURING COVID-19
HAS USED
INTENDS TO USE
DOES NOT PLAN TO USE/UNAWARE
72%
19%
8%
47%
24%
29%
70%
19%
11%
71%
18%
11%
53%
30%
17%
49%
28%
23%
DECEMBER-19
JANUARY-20
FEBRUARY-20
MARCH-20
APRIL-20
MAY-20
13
PREDICTION 3
14
Source: YCharts (as of 5 November 2020) Note: (1) Statista (as of 5 November 2020); (2) Koetsier, J. (2020, 12 June) COVID-19 Accelerated E-Commerce Growth ‘4-6 Years’. Forbes.
Retrieved from www.forbes.com; (3) Moore, C. (2020, 22 June) Coronavirus drives e-commerce…. Fox Business. Retrieved from www.foxbusiness.com; (4) Dr Wulff, C. Lockdown, Shake Up:
The New Normal for Shopping in Europe. PWC Germany. Retrieved from www.pwc.de; (5) Berthene, A. (2020, 1 October) Online merchants gain an extra $107bn in 2020 thanks to pandemic.
Digital Commerce 360. Retrieved from www.digitalcommerce360.com; (6) Maheshwari et al. (2020, 9 October) Customers Still Like to Shop in Person…. The New York Times. Retrieved from
www.nytimes.com.
I want it NOW e-commerce
E-COMMERCE, CURBSIDE PICKUP, 2-DAY DELIVERY IS
NO LONGER FAST ENOUGH
The need for social distancing and increased penetration of the Internet has pushed people across age groups and professions
to work, learn, communicate and shop online. US online retail sales saw a 4.3 point jump between Q1 and Q2 2020 (1), reflecting
the paradigm shift to e-commerce. Despite the GDP and macroeconomic challenges, e-commerce growth has essentially
accelerated by 4-6 years (2).
Only 5.1% of US e-commerce shoppers were 45 years or older pre-pandemic, and this group is expected to increase to 5.8%
in 2020 (3) as they are especially vulnerable to severe illness from COVID-19 and often require contactless shopping. Given
the paradigm shift in consumption patterns across the globe, we expect to see older demographics to increasingly embrace
e-commerce. We also expect to see increased demand for the Buy Online Pick-up In Store (BOPIS) channel. PWC published a
report on European shopping and found that 28% of European consumers who live in urban areas used online shopping as the
main channel for buying groceries during the lockdown, which is an increase of 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels (4). BOPIS
offers an effective alternative to deliveries - the conventional model for online transactions - while eliminating delays due to
disrupted supply chains.
While total US online sales grew 42% YoY as of August 2020, BOPIS sales grew 259% (5), driven by the change in behaviour of
the shoppers who now want to shop online but still receive products right away. Three-fourths of the top 50 retailers in the US
now offer curbside pickup, with Target and Best Buy as prime examples (6). Target’s curbside sales grew more than 700% in Q2
2020, while Best Buy reported nearly $5bn in online revenue, of which 41% originated from in-store pick-ups (6).
As more diverse groups of people begin to recognise the ease of searching, customising and paying online, we expect the
demographic change in e-commerce to continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Moreover, in the post-pandemic economy,
we expect sustained demand for BOPIS as consumers become comfortable with this hybrid model of online purchases with in-
store pick-ups, especially for groceries, medication and consumer staples, as well as some discretionary products.
PREDICTION 3
US E-COMMERCE SALES ($BN)
$131
$153
$134
$157
$140
$160
$146
$212
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Q2 2020
COVID-driven jump
in e-commerce
growth started in
Q2 2020
15
EXPERT VIEW
16
Expert view:
Ecwid
RUSLAN FAZLYEV
CEO OF ECWID
Ecwid is an e-commerce platform serving small businesses
worldwide. This remains an underserved niche, and because
of all the complexity of e-commerce, we need to find a simple
way to address this market and make it accessible. It is not
enough just to be available, it also needs to be easy, as these
businesses do not have an IT department or large budgets.
We empower SMB’s to sell online on their websites, social
media and marketplaces, with a true omni-channel approach.
And through this, we see a vast amount of market data in
geographies across the world and different channels from
social media, such as Facebook or Snapchat, to country-
specific marketplaces, such as Yandex in Russia.
I believe true ‘disruption’ actually starts from the lower end
of the market. The dynamics of public markets may push
companies to go up market eventually, which ultimately makes
them less suitable for the SMBs. We are a company that is
passionately and specifically focused on those small revenue
per user customers. According to BuiltWith, which provides
data from a variety of e-commerce channels, Ecwid was
ranked no. 10 globally last year and no. 4 this year.
This increase in market share is a result of our unit economics,
ease of use, and freemium business model. Shopify and our
other competitors are actually competing with most players
in the market, while at Ecwid we are instead integrating with
them. What is unique about our approach is our partner
business. We enable other players to provide a strong
e-commerce option as part of their broader portfolio of
offerings – for us it is about collaboration, not competition.
And that is a very asymmetrical approach versus almost any
other company in our market. While our growth is powered
by enabling our partners to compete better, we also want to
win the head-to-head competition from players like Shopify
and BigCommerce, so that our partners can use Ecwid as a
weapon in their portfolio.
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced late e-commerce adopters
to learn new patterns of consumption. The reality is that even
post-lockdown, once customers figure out how easy this way
of consumption is, it will stick long-term. This will inevitably
expand the economy, because when it becomes so much
easier to consume, you tend to consume more. Even countries
with little e-commerce pre-pandemic, Italy for example, have
seen adoption rapidly accelerate. Ecwid is now the leading
e-commerce solution based on number of sites represented in
Italy, as well as France and Germany.
In today’s world, everything has to be simple and one-click.
It has to be available right there where the customer and
consumption are; in other words, it has to be omni-channel. All
of these existing marketplaces, such as Instagram, Facebook,
Pinterest, Amazon Marketplace and the web, are likewise
experiencing transformational growth – as a merchant, you
need to be exposed to all of these channels or you are losing
some amount of revenue. At Ecwid, we package all of this for
small businesses to deploy simply and quickly.
Total online sales in the US grew by 42% YoY as of August and
BOPIS sales grew 259%. Ecwid, over a similar period of time,
actually saw BOPIS grow by 446%. I believe US consumers
just tend to more easily adopt new approaches to buying,
and possibly the stricter lockdowns during this pandemic
contributed to this as well.
We know that 30% of small businesses shut down this year will
never reopen. Because we are well-funded and have healthy
unit economics, we believe that it is important to give back to
small businesses so that they can make it through this year. We
have moved paid-plan features to free throughout 2020 to help
provide relief, such as curbside pickup, gift vouchers that help
customers support their local stores, tipping for food delivery,
etc. Post-pandemic, I believe the good behavioural changes
are going to stay, such as the reliance on online commerce,
local delivery, pre-order and BOPIS.
RUSLAN FAZLYEV
17
PREDICTION 4
18
Sources: (1) Anderton, K. (2019, 21 March) Research Report Shows How Much Time We Spend Gaming. Forbes. Retrieved from www.forbes.com; (2) Piscatella, M. (2020, 12 October) U.S.
Video Game Spending This Holiday Projected to Reach a Record $13.4 Billion. NPD. Retrieved from www.npd.com; (3) Jaeger, L; Zarb, N.; David, A. (2020, 26 August) Global Gaming Study:
More Gamers Spending More Money in COVID lockdowns – Which Publishers Will Benefit? Simon-Kucher & Partners. Retrieved from www.simon-kucher.com (also graph source).
The next social network
SOCIAL GAMING AN INTEGRAL PART OF SOCIETY
Video games have evolved dramatically over the past 40 years from individuals being siloed into their own Atari-produced Pong
terminals at the arcade to chatting with each other across the world in Fortnite. The reach of gaming has expanded greatly since
Pac-Man ruled the roost and has been growing steadily with gamers in the US playing on average seven hours and seven minutes
per week in 2019, an increase of 20% from 2018 (1).
This figure is likely to increase this year due to the influx of gamers and game time stemming from the pandemic. The NPD Group
alone is projecting US consumer spending on video games to reach $13.4bn in the November-December 2020 holiday period,
an increase of 24% YoY (2). However, gaming is a global affair and growth is not limited to the US. A recent study by Simon-
Kucher found that there was an 11% increase in time spent gaming across the world due to COVID-19, a figure it expects to remain
elevated in the future (3).
The social dynamic of gaming has also changed with increased access, and games are now enjoyed by the masses. Due to this
large shift, we expect games to ultimately become truly synchronous with social networks of the world. The pandemic has only
helped to accelerate this shift. Individuals are starting to choose to squad up in Call of Duty: Warzone or visit their friend’s island
in Animal Crossing: New Horizons in favour of a phone call. Fortnite has recently added in-game video chat, and more often
friends are now discussing their favourite Twitch streamers’ recent streams rather than what television show aired the previous
day. This change in video games, becoming the next form of social networks, will be further spurred by the interoperability of
video game hardware.
Many games today are available across numerous platforms such as mobile, Microsoft’s Xbox, Sony’s PlayStation, and Nintendo’s
Switch. Gone are the days of purchasing a console to be able to play one game. All that is needed is one console, PC or phone,
to access the world.
PREDICTION 4
MONTHLY SPEND INCREASE IN GAMING, MAY-JUNE 2020 VS. PRE-COVID-19
PRE-COVID-19
AFTER COVID-19
160%
80%
140%
60%
120%
40%
100%
20%
0%
OVERALLINDONESIAAUSTRALIAMEXICOBRAZILNETHERLANDSCHILESINGAPORECHINASPAINGERMANYCANADAUNITED KINGDOMFRANCETURKEYINDIAUNITED STATES19
PREDICTION 5
20
Source: Levine, B. (2020, 14 January) How retailers struggle between data privacy and personalization. ClickZ. Retrieved from www.clickz.com. Note: (1) Bohn, D. (2020, 14 January) Google to
‘phase out’ third-party cookies in Chrome, but not for two years. The Verge. Retrieved from www.theverge.com.
Consumers taking control
of privacy
PRIVACY GOES HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST ADVERTISING
The combination of remote work, new privacy regulation and an increase in consumer adoption of subscription software for
completion of tasks has brought privacy and data security concerns to the forefront of consumers’ minds. For many years,
consumers have enjoyed the personalised experiences from multiple software tools. However, many are now questioning what
they are giving up for such personalisation, namely data privacy.
Privacy regulations such as GDPR and CCPA have attempted to protect consumers by forcing technology companies to obtain
explicit consent prior to obtaining personal data, but these policies have not completely eliminated data privacy violations as
evidenced by the large fines that have already been levied on numerous technology companies such as Google and Facebook.
As a result of these violations and data security concerns, consumers are now beginning to take a more proactive approach
to forgo the unique experiences that have been provided to them through various technology tools in order to secure more
personal privacy.
This shift in consumer preferences for a more privacy-centric offering has been aided by large technology companies optimising
their offerings to be privacy-centric, such as Google’s ban on third-party cookie tracking advertisers by 2022 (1). On the other
hand, Apple also plans to allow consumers to take control of their privacy by allowing them to opt out of app tracking in iOS 14.
This change in approach from big tech will likely help smaller technology companies that have put privacy first, such as the
search engine DuckDuckGo. Moreover, big tech’s embrace of privacy will also likely help the burgeoning privacy ecosystem.
We expect to see more product offerings integrating privacy controls to meet the new consumer standard, and legacy
technology companies following the lead of Apple and Google to create more private platforms. Rather than a differentiator for
technology companies, we believe privacy controls will be the rule for consumers in the future.
PREDICTION 5
HOW CONSUMERS VIEW GREATEST BENEFITS FROM PASSING THEIR DATA OVER
55%
33%
44%
23%
39%
15%
37%
PERSONALISED EXPERIENCE
CONVENIENCE
EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
OFFERS AND DISCOUNTS
LOYALTY SCHEMES
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
EASIER PAYMENTS
21
PREDICTION 6
22
Source: Ang, C. (2020, 15 September) Fitness apps grew by nearly 50% during the first half of 2020, study finds. World Economic Forum. Retrieved from www.weforum.org. Note: (1) COVID-19
Digital Engagement Report. Twilio. Retrieved from www.twilio.com; (2) Howell, M. (2020, 19 October) Apple Fitness+ vs. Peloton vs. Fiit: which at-home fitness subscription is best for you.
The Telegraph. Retrieved from www.telegraph.co.uk; (3) Thomas, L. (2020, 6 May) Peloton sales surge 66%, as more people buy bikes during coronavirus pandemic; shares jump. CNBC.
Retrieved from www.cnbc.com; (4) Henderson, A. (2020, 10 May) 13 best fitness apps and online training programmes. Independent. Retrieved from www.independent.co.uk.
Survival of the fittest
THE RISE OF DIGITAL FITNESS / CONSUMER SUBSCRIPTION
Fitness studios and gyms had two options when the pandemic hit: go digital or go under. Gyms and workout studios typically
require extensive in-person interaction, and consequently were the first to shut down during the pandemic. Traditional gyms,
trainers and fitness of all kinds had to transform their platforms digitally to remain profitable. According to Twilio, 92% of
companies surveyed around the globe say transforming to digital communication is now extremely critical to address current
business challenges (1). Likewise, investors are paying up for technology fitness companies able to replicate or approximate the
gym experience at-home. The Telegraph, a London published newspaper, mentions the global fitness app market is expected to
grow at a rate of 21% from 2019 to 2026; the future of fitness is here, and it is digital (2).
ClassPass, who previously partnered with local in-person fitness boutiques, has since launched live workouts where more than
500 studios have added livestreamed, bookable classes to the platform, allowing studios to personalise their own experiences.
Peloton, a stationary bike with livestream cycling classes, saw a massive surge in paid users across the globe, growing revenue
by 66% YoY to $524.6m (3). Peloton offers cycling bikes, treadmills, and a $39 monthly subscription to livestream fitness classes.
California-based Zwift also provides an engaging and social element, simulating competitive cycling races, such as the Tour de
France with trainers, in the comfort of your own home. Fiit, a UK fitness startup goes for £10 a month and allows accessibility
anywhere and for everyone with its variety of cardio, strength and rebalance classes all online (4). Alongside advancements in at-
home tools and devices, Strava and Whoop integrate performance metrics and feature cross-compatibility for users.
As companies offer monthly subscriptions, it is clear digital fitness is a thriving sector in the global consumer subscription
software ecosystem. Many industries view the pandemic as a temporary change in business, yet the fitness industry proves at-
home fitness could be a permanent diversification from the traditional in-person gym with its unlimited availability and competitive
prices. We expect online fitness will continue to flourish as companies address the fast-growing exercise-at-home-market in the
post-pandemic world.
PREDICTION 6
INDIA
MENA
EUROPE
ASIA-PACIFIC
US
REST OF THE WORLD
Q1-Q2 2020 FITNESS APP DOWNLOADS GLOBALLY (GROWTH BY NUMBER OF DOWNLOADS)
45.1%
13.5%
12.4%
15.8%
7.2%
6.0%
Between Q1 and
Q2 2020, fitness
app downloads
grew by 46%
worldwide due
to COVID-19
lockdowns
23
EXPERT VIEW
24
Expert view:
FitOn
LINDSAY COOK
CO-FOUNDER & CEO OF FITON
I joined Fitbit as one of the first marketers and left as the Head
of the Consumer Devices group where I was responsible for
the hardware and software product launches. Running Fitbit’s
competitive intelligence, I became immersed in the health and
fitness category and after analysing all of the digital fitness
products, I found myself extremely disappointed with what was
available on the App Store.
So many apps commanded high prices for what were basic and
uninspiring products that included only GIFs of someone doing
a push up. It became clear that the market was being woefully
underserved and there was a huge opportunity to build a better
product for people like me, whose school or work schedules
and busy family life make it almost impossible for them to find
time for the gym.
In developing FitOn, I teamed up with the founder of AllTrails,
who had 20+ years of consumer subscription experience. Our
vision was to design a premium app that empowered anyone,
anywhere to get fit and find time for self-care. We believed the
most effective avenue to reach people was using the ubiquity
of the smartphone. With today’s technology at our fingertips,
there is no longer a need to define fitness as just an hour at the
gym. It is the 10 minutes you have in the morning, 5 minutes in
the middle of the workday or 30 minutes before dinner.
FitOn was also created to address a fundamental failure of
the fitness industry, which is that no one seemed particularly
focused on the user experience after someone joins. We
decided to offer a freemium experience with unlimited
high-quality workouts on your phone. We then layered on
additional, value-added features as part of a premium service,
which included downloading workouts, premium music, and
integration with wearables. We continue to focus on driving
innovation beyond just the core workout experience and have
introduced digital coaching, personalised meal plans and live
video calls with friends.
One of the keys to our success has been the substantial
organic growth we have achieved by offering an incredible
experience that people cannot help but share with friends.
Our business model is built on converting this excitement
into subscriptions to help support our mission to help people
get fit. We knew that women aged 25-45 years were a crucial
community to win in digital fitness and spent our first year laser
focused on addressing their needs.
While we have seen our members become increasingly more
international, we were ecstatic to have driven more downloads
of FitOn in the US in the first half of 2020, than Peloton Digital
and Nike Training Club. We have also been able to achieve four
times the industry average retention over the first 30 days
because of the quality of our fitness content, our product and
our focus on the social experience.
We have also seen huge growth in our business, by over
200%, during COVID-19. The pandemic has acted as a forcing
function for some, but I believe digital fitness was already at a
tipping point and headed towards exponential growth. Digital
fitness has become a compelling alternative to traditional
means of exercise and wellness. The pandemic only served
to propel this trend forward with so many people growing
accustomed to working out at home.
Our future will see software and hardware continuing to coexist
as people use both for their health and fitness. Our focus is
to serve the mass market of customers who cannot afford to
spend thousands on equipment and to instead make use of the
hardware already in their pocket or in their home. We are also
excited to be working with a broad range of gyms to provide
their members with a synergistic digital experience. We look
forward to continuing to leverage the smartphone to provide
everyone with a gym in their pocket and an engaging social
fitness experience they just cannot find anywhere else.
LINDSAY COOK
25
PREDICTION 7
26
Source: Statista (as of 5 November 2020) Note: (1) 2020, August. Big Tech In Payments. CB Insights, Research Briefs. Retrieved from www.cbinsights.com; (2) The Payments Industry
Landscape: What Does It Look Like Today? Cardknox. Retrieved from www.cardknox.com; (3) Ahmed, A. (2020, 15 July) Digital Payments Industry Surpassed the $4.1 Trillion Mark, Origin and
Future of Digital Payments. Digital Information World. Retrieved from www.digitalinformationworld.com (also graph data).
Cash is no longer king
THE ACCELERATION OF DIGITAL PAYMENTS
Once only a niche solution for the most tech-savvy consumers, digital wallets have grown considerably in recent years to
become truly mainstream. An ever-expanding list of digital wallet solutions have been adopted as the pandemic causes us to
rethink the safety of something previously routine like handling currency.
With the digital payment industry representing a $3.6tn opportunity, at a 13.5% CAGR between 2020 and 2025, we are
witnessing a tectonic shift in consumer behaviour towards NFC payments and digital banking more broadly (1). Up to 60% of
payments were made using contactless methods in 2019, and today more than half of Gen Z consumers use their digital wallets
at least once a month and a remarkable 75% use a digital payment app (2).
A growing number of major tech players have also begun to enter the digital banking market, placing major bets in the space. In
addition to start-ups in recent years, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Samsung are entering the fray full force.
Innovative point-of-sale financing solutions such as Klarna and Affirm have offered an entirely new way for consumers to transact
directly with a growing list of brands and even ‘buy now, pay later’.
In the past year, we have noticed many big fintech players adopting consolidation as one of their key strategies to gain
competitive advantage and enter new markets. For example, PayPal invested in Tink, a Sweden-based developer of an open
banking platform, and Fiserv acquired Bypass, an enterprise POS system earlier this year. This strategy helps companies
in expanding their product offering by adding the personalisation component and on the same hand provides up-selling
opportunities, thus boosting their top-line revenues.
Leading the global charge with an average of 529 cashless payments per capita annually, Sweden is already on a path to become
the first cashless nation in the world as early as 2023 (3). As regulatory barriers are overcome, infrastructure further develops and
convenience of functionality increases within society, we expect rapid advancement in digital banking across geographies in
developed and emerging markets.
PREDICTION 7
VALUE OF GLOBAL DIGITAL PAYMENT TRANSACTIONS ($TN)
DIGITAL COMMERCE
MOBILE POS PAYMENTS
$3.2
$5.4
$3.6
$6.1
$6.7
$4.1
$4.8
2017
2018
2021E
2022E
2023E
2019
2020E
27
PREDICTION 8
28
Source: Curry, D. (2020, 30 October) Slack Revenue and Usage Statistics (2020). Business of Apps. Retrieved from www.businessofapps.com; Hilberath et al. (2020, 22 September) Hybrid
Work Is the New Remote Work. BCG. Retrieved from www.bcg.com. Note: (1) Brynjolfsson et al. (2020, June) COVID-19 and Remote Work…. National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved
from www.nber.org ; (2) Kaufman et al. (2020, 30 June). Remote Work Works—Where Do We Go from Here? BCG. Retrieved from www.bcg.com; (3) Slack FQ1 2021 report; (4) Zaveri, P. (2020,
30 April) Microsoft Teams now has 75m daily active users…. Business Insider. Retrieved from www.businessinsider.com; (5) Conger, K. (2020, 12 May). Facebook starts planning…. The New
York Times. Retrieved from www.nytimes.com.
The future of work
THE EVOLUTION OF COLLABORATION AND REMOTE WORK
At the beginning of 2020, companies slowly began to implement work from home policies to slow the spread of COVID-19, giving
employees the ability to trade in their office desks for home offices or living room workstations. By April, 31% of those in the US
that were employed in March had made the switch to remote work (1), causing employers to exclusively rely on communication
and collaboration software to create optimised remote work models and remain connected.
Many companies with efficient remote work models around the world saw a 15% to 40% increase in productivity from
employees (2), primarily due to some of the current tools that focus on internal team communication, project management,
video conferencing and collaboration that were not fully utilised previously. Asana, Zoom, Slack, Google (G-suite) and Microsoft
(Teams) all saw a significant uptick in usage. Slack added a record of 12,000 net new paid customers in Q1 (3), while Microsoft
Teams added 12m active daily users in just one week in early March (4).
With this adoption of tools within organisations, employees from less technical backgrounds are leveraging these solutions that
would otherwise have not been necessary. This growing reliance on communication and collaboration tools has forced employers
to rethink how the future of work will look given the rapid, successful adoption. Large tech companies such as Facebook, Google
and Twitter are proving that these models can be successful long-term and have changed their current work policies, announcing
that their employees can work from home indefinitely (5). However, companies with fully remote models are few and far between
and most employers still see the value that in-person collaboration and interaction adds to team performance and productivity.
While we do not expect the concept of the office to go by the wayside, employers are rethinking the concept and purpose of
the office environment. The future of work is unknown as employers will need to reconfigure work models to best fit the needs
of employees while also delivering optimal levels of productivity, which will invariably include a remote or hybrid model and
increased reliance on communication and collaboration tools.
PREDICTION 8
SLACK VS. MICROSOFT TEAMS DAILY ACTIVE USERS
SLACK
MICROSOFT
50m
30m
10m
45m
25m
5m
20m
0m
40m
35m
15m
SEP-17JAN-19MAY-18SEP-19JAN-18MAY-19SEP-18JAN-20JUL-20NOV-17MAR-19JUL-18NOV-19MAY-20MAR-18JUL-19NOV-18MAR-2029
PREDICTION 9
30
Source: 2020, April. Digital Marketing Software Market Size Worth $151.8 Billion By 2027. Grand View Research. Retrieved from www.grandviewresearch.com. Note: (1) 2020, March. Customer
Data Platform Market Report. ID: 5006120. Research and Markets. Retrieved from www.researchandmarkets.com; (2) Levine, B. (2019, 4 March) MarTech Today research: Guide to picking an
identity resolution platform. Martech Today. Retrieved from www.martechtoday.com.
Martech all-in on customer
experience
CONVERGENCE OF MARTECH, CX AND THE CUSTOMER JOURNEY
As COVID-19 accelerates the shift towards digital channels and experiences, digital customer experience (CX) has become
an important differentiator and the ultimate battleground for brands globally. A growing proportion of customers now expect
personalised experiences across the entire digital journey, which drives customer loyalty and top-line growth. The need to go
beyond marketing by adding context to sales and customer service experiences is leading companies to rethink their martech
stack to enable enterprise-wide CX.
Understanding customer data is key to achieving this vision, and many companies are harnessing zero and first-party data and
analytics to power unique experiences across a range of use cases and channels. Companies retooling their CX are looking
to build a complete picture of their customers by unifying data from a variety of customer touchpoints and sources including
transactions, CRM, social media, mobile apps and website behaviour. The market has responded and the major Marketing
and Experience Cloud vendors including Adobe, Oracle, Salesforce and SAP all released Customer Data Platforms (CDP) this
year, entering a market projected to reach in excess of $10bn in the next five years (1). When combined with other technologies
including identity resolution, decisioning, automation and machine learning, CDPs enable companies to deliver hyper-
personalised experiences across all channels at every stage of the customer journey. The acquisitions of Twilio by Segment,
Emarsys by SAP and Evergage by Salesforce are all examples of this trend.
The demise of third-party cookies and proliferation of devices further highlight the importance of direct-to-consumer interactions
and first-party data, and is a key growth driver for the identity resolution software market (led by companies including Throttle and
Signal), which is poised to grow to $2.6bn by 2022 (2). The growing importance of social channels within customer services, and
platforms such as Instagram and Pinterest increasingly offering one-click transitions to e-commerce, is driving the convergence
of customer engagement and Voice of the Customer platforms with social media marketing and analytics. Recent examples of
this trend include the acquisitions of Nielsen Social by Talkwalker and Socialbakers by Astute.
We expect to see increasing demand for Customer Experience Platforms powered by first-party data and automated decisioning,
with a focus on AI-enabled customer insights. We forecast continued consolidation among marketing automation, CX and cloud
communication players as the convergence of marketing, customer experience and cloud communications gains momentum.
PREDICTION 9
US DIGITAL MARKETING SOFTWARE MARKET ($BN)
$49
$152
2020
2027
17.
4%
CAG
R
31
EXPERT VIEW
32
Expert view:
Customer Thermometer
LINDSAY WILLOTT
CEO OF CUSTOMER THERMOMETER
I first became interested in the confluence of marketing and
CX in my graduate job in a CRM company. I was fortunate to
grow my career as the nascent concept of multi-channel,
seamless relationships with customers was finding its voice.
Four years later the dot com bubble burst and I saw an
opportunity to start a tech marketing agency that was very
different, focused on revenue generation and CX throughout
the sales and marketing funnel.
I started The Marketing Practice in 2002, one of the largest
independent B2B tech agencies in the world. Instead of
marketing being at the top of the funnel and sales at the
bottom, where marketing has a database, generates leads
and drops those leads to sales, we focused on demand
and revenue generation, but through the lens of what truly
influenced and motivated the customer.
Born from the idea of understanding the ongoing
relationship with end-client satisfaction, I went on to found
Customer Thermometer. In this business we have built a
SaaS company where the customer experience is as good
as the product quality – they are equally important to our
success. Customer experience is so critical for business
now, to both drive lifetime value and reputation. Customer
Thermometer allows people to regularly check how people
are feeling without wrecking the customer experience they
are trying so hard to craft.
Many survey tools hark from the market research space,
and were never intended to gauge customer feedback.
Research and feedback are two very different things.
People have frankly gotten excited about the possibility of
asking hundreds of questions, and support, service, CX and
brand teams are all throwing questions into the mix, but the
resulting surveys are terrible for customers to use.
Setting us apart from our competitors, Customer
Thermometer starts with your existing customer touchpoints
and, as seamlessly as possible, drops in the opportunity
for customers to give feedback in a way that is on-brand,
engaging and fun.
You cannot market ahead of reality anymore, and you
cannot sell a great thing and then support it poorly. With
online reviews, feedback and social media, customers
are the arbiter of your future reputation. It is no longer
just about the product. The service around the product,
the subscription and the lifetime value all come into this,
and these myriad touchpoints now determine your brand.
Customer support used to be a back-end function but now
is stepping firmly into the world of marketing and reputation.
Companies are starting to understand that customers have a
journey, a lifetime, and they want to map it.
The two important steps to be successful using our platform
are acting on the data to close the loop – contacting
customers – and measuring a range of touchpoints instead
of just one. The distinction between product and resolution
satisfaction is particularly challenging in the Service Desk
market. We put the ability within our flow for the survey
responder to say ‘this is why I gave the feedback I did’.
With the pandemic, three in five consumers have changed
who they buy from and money is pouring into retention
marketing. People will not spend time on difficult-to-use
websites or AI chatbots. For B2Bs that relied on expensive
salespeople flying around, their glossy brochures and
websites have been left to languish and will not cut it next
year. Moreover, lightweight systems are the watchword
for 2021. Whether people are rolling out big Martech or CX
platforms, businesses with traditional in-person delivery
models need to change quite significantly.
I see interesting opportunities in proactive customer
service. One-to-one marketing, utilising the information
from the back of the business to the front, can energise
and engage your market. I expect future CX to be real time,
where product development sits with customer support
teams and uses that information to connect with markets,
rather than relying on disjointed research.
LINDSAY WILLOTT
33
PREDICTION 10
34
Source: Sensor Tower Store Intelligence, 2020; Chitkara, H. (2020, 5 October) Apple and Google are embroiled in legal battles…. Business Insider. Retrieved from www.businessinsider.com.
Note: (1) Perez, S. (2020, 22 July) Apple digs in heels over its App Store commission structure with release of new study and (2) Perez, S. (2020, 24 September) App makers band together
to fight for App Store changes with new ‘Coalition for App Fairness’. Tech Crunch. Retrieved from www.techcrunch.com; (3) Apple press release (2020, 18 November).
Epic’s ultimate battle royale…
with Apple
APPLE FACES INCREASED PRESSURE FROM DEVELOPERS
On 10 July 2008, the world received one of the most innovative digital distribution platforms to date – the Apple App Store.
Providing developers the ability to create and distribute their software in a safe environment, the App Store is the bedrock for
some of the most iconic applications that have changed the way people live and interact. However, these relationships with
Apple have drastically changed over the past few years as Apple’s 30% commission on app sales and in-app purchases (1) has
been met with retaliation and frustration from some of the largest developers in the ecosystem.
Epic Games, creator of Fortnite and one of the largest app developers in the space, is leading the charge against Apple, filing a
high-profile lawsuit over its supposed anti-competitive practices for app distribution and related payment rake (2).
Since making its position known, Epic Games has received public backing from other large developers who have had similar
experiences with the App Store creator – namely Spotify, Microsoft and Match Group. With the support of these larger
developers, smaller players are seeing this battle as an opportunity to make their voices heard. Other app makers such as
Basecamp, Deezer, European Publishers Council, Tile and five others have formed the Coalition for App Fairness, a non-profit
organisation that seeks to create a level playing field for app makers (2). In an effort to combat these advances, Apple reduced its
commission by half, to 15%, but only for small developers (3).
Faced with waves of resistance, Apple will need to defend its position on its commission structure to maintain one of its most
significant revenue streams. Having followed the decentralisation of app distribution over the past several years and the recent
actions taken by Apple, we believe that Apple will need to further reduce its fees on some or all apps to avoid regulatory action
and keep its rapport with developers as other distribution platforms start to claim their part of Apple’s market share. We expect
that Apple’s historic one-size-fits-all app developer approach will increasingly evolve as more companies push to counter Apple’s
immense ecosystem leverage by creating experiences their users crave.
PREDICTION 10
GLOBAL CONSUMER SPEND ON APPLE APP STORE & GOOGLE PLAY STORE ($BN)
APPLE APP STORE
GOOGLE PLAY STORE
$9.7
$14.5
$12.0
$19.0
$5.1
$7.7
$6.2
$10.3
Q3 2017
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q3 2020
35
HISTORICAL PREDICTIONS
The past, present and future
A LOOK BACK AT OUR CRYSTAL BALL OF PREDICTIONS
2014
2015
EYE TRACKING REACHES CONSUMER MASSES
CURVED SMARTPHONES TO FLOP IN 2014
SMART MACHINES MARKET TAKING-OFF
MAJOR LANDSCAPE CHANGES IN THE
WORLD OF PAYMENTS
SOCIAL MESSAGING MARKETS
TO CONSOLIDATE
NEW MEDIA OUTLETS TAKING-OFF
MARKETPLACES TO GO VERTICAL
BREAKTHROUGH IN INDOOR LOCATION,
COMMUNICATION AND MARKETING
INTERNET OF THINGS TO MOVE FROM
SMART TO INTELLIGENT
SHOPPING GOES ‘CLICK & MORTAR’
THE BATTLE OF ‘WHERE’ TO UNFOLD
ADVANCED DATA ANALYTICS CLIMBS TO TOP
OF CORPORATE AGENDA
SAAS ADOPTION PERMEATES THROUGHOUT
THE ENTERPRISE
CLOUD STORAGE PLATFORMS GO MAINSTREAM
Mass consumer applications of eye-tracking technology
to hit the market in 2014; e.g. Pizza Hut to provide
subconscious menu that tracks eye movement to
understand what customers are craving.
Curved smartphone market to grow as big players tackle
consumer pain points of high price points and lack of
perceived value of the curved design.
SmartThings and IoT to penetrate the market; innovations,
investments and acquisitions in the market to continue.
Changes in the Fintech landscape to include new cleaner
cryptocurrencies and digital blockchain technology to be
applied to other industries for transparency.
Consolidation in social messaging industry; high number
of users make these apps attractive to strategic partners
searching for growth.
New media brands producing engaging content in various
delivery formats to attract masses of audiences.
Vertical marketplaces to become more prominent than
horizontal marketplaces, given increased investment
in the space.
Indoor location communication and marketing to break
through and a number of large retailers leading the way for
beacon technology implementation.
IoT to turn intelligent by harnessing insights from actionable
data uploaded to the cloud.
E-commerce retailers such as Birchbox, Bononos and
Amazon opened retail stores, proving that bricks-and-mortar
has a place in the retail market.
Map applications to proliferate and develop features such as
detailed lane navigation, restaurant reservation, estimated
travel time, etc.
Big data and data analytics applications to become
attractive to businesses with increasing investments flowing
to this industry.
Adoption of cloud SaaS enterprise applications to increase
across companies to increase productivity and efficiency.
Adoption of cloud storage to increase significantly due to
time and money saved in IT management and fewer internal
resources deployed. Adoption to pan across enterprises
and consumers.
36
HISTORICAL PREDICTIONS
2016
END-TO-END SERVICE DISRUPTION GOES
BEYOND UBER AND AIRBNB
RETURNED FOCUS ON CUSTOMER LONG-TERM
VALUE IN MOBILE GAMING
COMPREHENSIVE CYBERSECURITY PROTECTION
TO BECOME THE NORM
VIRTUAL REALITY BECOMES REALITY
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY RIPE FOR INNOVATION
ALTERNATIVE LENDING CONTINUES TO SHINE
BRIGHTLY IN FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
DIGITAL VIDEO BECOMES MORE
MEASURED TO KEEP GROWING UP
3D PRINTING MOVES FROM PROTOTYPING
TO END-PRODUCTS
CONTINUED EMERGENCE OF ONE-
STOP SHOPS IN AD-TECH
THE WAVE OF TECHNOLOGY & PRODUCT
EXITS TO BE STRONG IN 2015
‘QUANTIFIED SELF’ TRANSITIONS FROM
NICHE TO MAINSTREAM
GAMING GIANTS FORTIFY POSITIONS IN TOP
GROSSING CHARTS, GOBBLING UP CHALLENGERS
‘DESKLESS’ WORKERS COME TO FOREFRONT
IN ENTERPRISE MOBILITY SHIFT
Companies offering end-to-end consumer experience using
a fusion of software and labour, such as Uber and Airbnb, to
penetrate consumption spend.
Customer retention is the focus of gaming companies
with realistic graphics, culturalisation and gaming
community management.
Increased adoption of big data security options and multi-
factor authentication, as well as biometric authentication for
consumer apps to permeate user landscape.
The rise in the popularity of virtual reality to revolutionise a
wide variety of industries such as media, sports, gaming,
entertainment and education.
New innovative operating systems geared towards the car
will spur growth, which will be dominated by third-party
software and technology players.
While much of the early innovation within the Fintech sector
has occurred in mobile payments and cryptocurrencies,
alternative lending to emerge as one of the
leading innovations.
With digital video on a trajectory to be the largest
video format in the future, major tech/media-focused
platforms to adjust their capabilities to capture their
share of the video audience.
3D printed products to emerge in end-product
applications, such as dental implants, etc., and in larger
but less price-sensitive industries where products are
lighter, versatile and durable.
Ad-tech space to see consolidation as larger players
diversify into digital advertising segments and acquire pure-
play ad-tech companies and agencies.
As tech companies grow and cash accumulates, there
will be market consolidation across sectors led by Apple,
Amazon, Facebook, Google and Twitter, targeting consumer
experience, electronics and one-stop-shop digital tools.
With the rise of mobile devices, big data, and social media,
waves of innovation to follow in the form of hardware and
software start-ups creating various products and services
tracking activities such as exercise, diet, sleep patterns and
vital signs.
As gaming remains as one of the most lucrative forms
of digital content, consolidation to continue and smaller
independent developers to look to build their user base
until acquired.
The enterprise has experienced some seismic technology
paradigm shifts in recent years, leading to growth in
enterprise mobile app companies.
CYBERSECURITY CONTINUES SOUL SEARCHING
Advanced cybersecurity solutions for the enterprise
will become ubiquitous and a ‘must have’ for
business operations.
DRONES TO FLY INTO
HEADWINDS OF UNCERTAINTY
The promise of drones is undeniable, but drones functioning
responsibly at mass scale to remain unproven.
37
2017
2018
UNICORN HUNTING NOW IN SEASON
E-SPORTS TAKES CENTRE STAGE
THE DAWN OF VR/AR CONTENT
SAAS SOFTWARE REIGNING SUPREME
TECH IPOS SET FOR TAKE OFF
MOBILE TRUMPS TV IN CHINA
TRANSLATION TECHNOLOGY TAKES HOLD
THE UNLIKELY COMEBACK OF THE
SOFTWARE SUITE
YEAR OF THE EUROPEAN DECACORN
INTERNATIONAL LABOUR
ARBITRAGE FLOURISHES
THE NEXT GENERATION OF
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
AN UNEASY FUTURE FOR POLITICS
AND TECHNOLOGY
CORDLESS CONTENT ANYWHERE
AND EVERYWHERE
FINTECH SHIFTING TECTONIC PLATES
DRIVERLESS CARS STILL REQUIRE
HUMAN DIRECTION
SOCIAL MEDIA TRANSFORMATION
A number of tech unicorns to lose their ‘mythical’ status as
they become hunted by the reality of slowing growth, weak
fundamentals, high cash burns and unrealistic expectations.
The rapid growth of e-sports to continue and become a
billion-dollar industry primarily driven by its huge fan base.
The VR/AR industry is at the peak of its hype cycle,
with hardware currently progressing ahead of content.
Developers will need to produce software to drive what is
set to be the next major platform.
An increasingly mobile workforce has led to mass adoption
of SaaS. The market, however, remains very fragmented and
will see some consolidation.
Global uncertainties have contributed to sluggish
performance for IPO markets, but these to see rebound in
the upcoming year.
Mobile phone usage to overtake TV consumption in China.
Translation technology to enjoy widespread consumer
adoption due to advances in machine learning.
Companies to turn back to spending large amounts
of money on IT platforms to aid their digital
transformation efforts.
European unicorns continue to demonstrate resilience in
comparison to their Asian and US counterparts, with the
expectation that they will continue to do so going forward.
Companies to abandon traditional tech hubs in favour of
smaller and up-and-coming places.
‘AI’ has been making waves since Alpha Go toppled the
18-time world Go Champion, Lee Sedol. As 2016 saw a
record level of investment in AI, it is clear the technology
is here to stay.
Tech firms to come under scrutiny for the content they
allow on their platforms with specific regard for politics.
Millennials are leading the movement against cable
networks, radically changing the way we consume
media, causing networks to challenge the rise of
over-the-top services.
Traditional financial institutions to fight back as they try
to disrupt themselves in an attempt to stem the impact
of ‘banks 2.0’.
As cars become more connected and less industrial, the
market to open to tech players such as Google, Baidu,
Apple and Uber.
As users are exposed to both domestic and foreign
platforms in an increasingly flat world of consumer
technologies, Western and Asian social media giants to
begin offering vastly similar features.
HISTORICAL PREDICTIONS
38
2019
OVER AND OUT EMAIL
AUGMENTED REALITY ADAPTS FOR
EARLY ADOPTION
DIGITAL BANKING CONTINUES TO RISE
RETAIL TECHNOLOGY GETS SMARTER
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS THE END OF
REPETITION, NOT THE END OF LIFE
A BREAK-UP OF AN ADVERTISING DUOPOLY
END OF THE BOYS CLUB
CYBER SECURITY EXPOSURE AND ADOPTION
CRYPTOCURRENCY WILL GROW UP
INDUSTRY 4.0
REGULATORS RULE ON BOOM AND
BUST OF ICOS
APP DISTRIBUTION MOVING AWAY FROM
APPLE AND GOOGLE
EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT GOES HIGH TECH
CONSUMER SUBSCRIPTION SET
TO ECLIPSE ADVERTISING
LAST MILE DELIVERY GOING THE DISTANCE
Email to be overtaken by more information workplace
communication tools and YoY growth in corporate
email to cease.
AR to enjoy a rapid increase in consumer adoption due to
improvements in technology.
Consumer adoption of digital banking tools to increase
as digital transactions continue to increase YoY.
Traditional retail to embrace innovative technologies to
usher in the new age of retail.
AI will not be the end of the white-collar workforce, but will
be embraced to improve working conditions and create
more flexible ways of working.
Brands to break up the large advertising hold of Google
and Facebook with the development of their own end-
to-end services.
Corporate initiatives to bring about gender balance through
improvements in accessibility to female entrants.
There will be widespread consumer adoption of digital
security in light of hackings in 2017.
Institutional capital to flow to cryptocurrencies as
blockchain activity continues to increase.
Factories to embrace artificial intelligence and robotics,
spurring the fourth industrial revolution.
Regulators to begin regulating the booming ICO market and
create definitive guidelines and regulations for the space.
Apple and Google to see widespread backlash from
developers fed up with their commission fees.
HR to embrace AI and data analytics to make capital
management more efficient.
Consumers to accept subscription models over traditional
advertising as concerns of data misuse continue to mount.
More retailers to focus on how to improve last mile delivery
solutions to keep pace with vendors such as Amazon.
HISTORICAL PREDICTIONS
39
This report is based on the expert insights of GP Bullhound’s worldwide team alongside detailed
analysis of investment trends across the global technology landscape. It is intended to provide our
predictions for growth, investment, and impact in the digital economy in 2021.
Each year, we present a transparent assessment of our predictions from the previous report to maintain
a high level of scrutiny on our own research. Conceptually predicting tech of the distant future is in
many ways simpler than predicting near-term advancements, but our challenge is identifying which
technologies will see the greatest progress and market adoption in 12 months. Historically, we have
highlighted significant trends standing the test of time; e.g. our predictions for IOT, wearables and
collaboration tech, as well as critical trends in cybersecurity, cloud and edge computing. Many will
continue to evolve, eventually forming the foundation for future tech in years to come.
METHODOLOGY
Methodology
Our recent marquee credentials
ECOVADIS
INVESTMENT BY
CVC GROWTH
PARTNERS
$200M
SENDINBLUE
INVESTMENT BY
BRIDGEPOINT
DEVELOPMENT
CAPITAL & BPI
$160M
MARIADB
INVESTMENT BY
GP BULLHOUND
FUND V
BUSUU
INVESTMENT BY
GP BULLHOUND
FUND IV
TALKWALKER
ACQUISITION OF
NIELSEN
SOCIAL
ORCA PACIFIC
ACQUIRED BY
MIGHTYHIVE/
S4 CAPITAL
ALLYO
ACQUIRED BY
HIREVUE
REVOLUT
INVESTMENT BY
GP BULLHOUND
FUND IV
MOTIF
ACQUIRED BY
CHARLES
SCHWAB
MENIGA
INVESTMENT BY
GROUPE BPCE
UNOMALY
ACQUIRED BY
VISTA EQUITY
LOGICMONITOR
7NXT
ACQUIRED BY
OAKLEY
CAPITAL
CHALLENGERMODE
INVESTMENT BY
GP BULLHOUND
FUND IV
EDITED
INVESTMENT BY
WAVECREST
GROWTH &
BERINGEA
$29M
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AUTHORS
(1) League table data represents selected transaction advisors. Time period is 2016-Q4 2019. Global M&A transactions between $10m and $300m
ABOUT US
About us
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