BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES
Powering the Era of Clean Electrification
BY CHARLIE BLOCH, JAMES NEWCOMB, SAMHITA SHILEDAR, AND MADELINE TYSON
ROCKY
MOUNTAIN
INSTIT UT
E
“This year’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry
rewards the development of lithium-
ion batteries. We have gained access
to a technical revolution. The laureates
developed lightweight batteries of high
enough potential to be useful in many
applications: truly portable electronics,
mobile phones, pacemakers, but also
long-distance electric cars. The ability to
store energy from renewable resources—
the sun, the wind—opens up for
sustainable energy consumption.”
—Sara Snogerup Linse, Nobel committee for chemistry
Authors & Acknowledgments
AUTHORS
Charlie Bloch, James Newcomb, Samhita Shiledar, and Madeline Tyson
* Authors listed alphabetically. All authors from
Rocky Mountain Institute unless otherwise noted.

ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS
Aman Chitkara, World Business Council for Sustainable Development
CONTACTS
Charlie Bloch, cbloch@rmi.org
Madeline Tyson, mtyson@rmi.org
SUGGESTED CITATION
Tyson, Madeline, Charlie Bloch. Breakthrough Batteries: Powering the Era
of Clean Electrification. Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019.
http://www.rmi.org/breakthrough-batteries
All images from iStock unless otherwise noted.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors thank the following individuals/organizations for offering their
insights and perspectives on this work:
Ebun Ayandele, Rocky Mountain Institute
Gene Berdichevsky, Sila Nanotechnologies
Adam Briggs, Ambri
Joshua Brooks, Rocky Mountain Institute
Michael Burz, EnZinc
Philip Comberg, Vionx Energy
Jan van Dokkum, Ionic Materials
Garrett Fitzgerald, Rocky Mountain Institute
Dean Frankel, Solid Power
Jay Goldin, Munich Re
Yi Ke, Rocky Mountain Institute
Aditya Khandekar, Berkeley Lab
Cyril Lee, Rocky Mountain Institute
Alicia Noriega, NYSERDA
Charles Teplin, Rocky Mountain Institute
Ethan Wampler, Rocky Mountain Institute
About Us
ABOUT ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI)—an independent nonprofit founded in 1982—transforms global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure
low-carbon future. It engages businesses, communities, institutions, and entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions that cost-
effectively shift from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; the San Francisco Bay Area;
Washington, D.C.; and Beijing.
ROCKY
MOUNTAIN
INSTIT UT
E
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 6
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................10
Batteries To 2025: Li-Ion Dominates the Market ...................................................................................... 17
Beyond 2025: The Transformational Potential of Next-Generation Battery Technologies .....30
Implications for Regulators, Policymakers, and Investors ....................................................................45
Recommendations ..............................................................................................................................................55
Appendix A: Emerging Technology Assessment & Scenario Development ................................58
Appendix B: Use Case Analyses ...................................................................................................................75
Endnotes ................................................................................................................................................................79

Executive Summary
1
Executive Summary
Advanced battery technologies are poised to
dramatically change our lives, sooner than many
market actors realize.
Recent rapid improvements in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery costs and
performance, coupled with growing demand for electric vehicles
(EVs) and increased renewable energy generation, have unleashed
massive investments in the advanced battery technology ecosystem.
These investments will push both Li-ion and new battery technologies
across competitive thresholds for new applications more quickly than
anticipated. This, in turn, will reduce the costs of decarbonization in key
sectors and speed the global energy transition beyond the expectations
of mainstream global energy models. Self-reinforcing feedback loops
linking favorable public policies, additional research and development
(R&D) funding, new manufacturing capacity, and subsequent learning-
curve and economy-of-scale effects will lead to continued cost declines
and exponential demand growth.
Through 2025, advances in technology and
manufacturing will keep Li-ion batteries at the forefront
of electrochemical energy storage markets.
Emerging innovations will improve all aspects of Li-ion battery
performance, with costs projected to approach $87/kWh by 2025.1 These
rapid improvements and cost declines will make battery-based applications
cost competitive with both stationary and mobile applications in the near
term (Exhibit ES1). For example, these changes are already contributing to
cancellations of planned natural gas power generation. The need for these
new natural gas plants can be offset through clean energy portfolios (CEPs)
of energy storage, efficiency, renewable energy, and demand response.2
Natural gas plants that move forward are at high risk of becoming stranded
assets, and as early as 2021, some existing power plants could be
more expensive to continue operating than least-cost CEP alternatives,
depending on gas prices. On the electric mobility front, low-cost Li-ion
batteries will contribute to a rapid scale-up of demand for smaller (e.g.,
two- and three-wheeled) EVs in fast-growing markets like India by 2023,
as upfront capital costs drop below those for internal combustion engine
vehicles. A similar shift, due to capital cost competitiveness, will occur for
personal and commercial EVs in the US market after 2025.

Diversifying applications will create opportunities for
new battery chemistries to compete with Li-ion.
• Solid-state batteries such as rechargeable zinc alkaline, Li-metal, and Li-
sulfur will help electrify heavier mobility applications.
• Low-cost and long-duration batteries such as zinc-based, flow, and high-
temperature technologies will be well suited to provide grid balancing in a
high-renewable and EV future.
• High-power batteries, which are best compared on a $/kW basis, are well
positioned to enable high penetration and fast charging of EVs.


Total manufacturing investment, both previous and planned until
2023, represents around $150 billion dollars, or close to $20 for
every person in the world.i
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 7
i Based on BNEF battery manufacturing capacity data.
EVs in India: Capital cost of electric
two-, three-, and four-wheelers in India
is cheaper than internal combustion
engines (ICEs)
Existing Natural Gas Plants:
CEPs batteries compete with
existing gas turbines in the South,
West, and Northeast of the United States.
EVs in US: Larger-bodied
electric vehicles, popularin the United
States, become competitive with ICE
vehicles on a capital cost basis
Competitive Thresholds for Advanced Battery Technologies
to Displace Incumbent Technologies
Li+ ion
Li-metal
Li-S
Zinc based
Flow
High Temperature
Micro-mobility
(e-bikes and
scooters) business
models become
competitive
Electric Vehicles (EVs) become more cost-eective
on a lifetime basis: Total cost per mile of four-wheel
electric vehicles becomes less than internal
combustion engine vehicles
New Natural Gas Plants:
Clean Energy Portfolios (CEPs) with
batteries will become cheaper than
new natural gas generation (CC & CT)
EXHIBIT ES1
8 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
But markets for advanced battery technology will not be
a winner-take-all opportunity for Li-ion batteries.
Despite the anticipated trajectory for Li-ion cost and performance, technology
limitations and tradeoffs will likely persist. Unlike the market development
pathway for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, battery R&D and manufacturing
investment continue to pursue a wide range of chemistries, configurations, and
battery types with performance attributes that are better suited to specific use
cases. Solid-state technology, in particular, is poised to massively disrupt the
storage industry by unlocking new opportunities for cheap, safe, and high-
performing batteries, including non-lithium-based chemistries.

Emerging, large market opportunities for such alternative
battery technologies that are at or are nearing
commercial readiness will reinforce diversification of the
increasing investment, regulatory, and policy support for
transportation electrification and stationary energy storage.
As early as 2025, and no later than 2030, RMI expects non-Li-ion battery
technologies to have made significant commercialization steps through
demonstration and early-stage deployments in long-duration energy storage,
electrification of heavy transport (e.g., heavy freight and short-duration
aviation), and battery-integrated approaches to EV fast-charging infrastructure.
Battery technology ecosystem actors should think
comprehensively and strategically about a near-
term future in which diverse technologies support an
increasingly wide range of battery applications.
Capturing the massive economic opportunity underlying the shift to controls-
and battery-based energy systems requires that planners, policymakers,
regulators, and investors take an ecosystem approach to developing these
markets. Regions that fail to develop such ecosystems will sacrifice economic
gains to their global trading partners. As Li-ion battery costs and performance
continue steadily improving, ecosystem actors may be tempted to assume the
long-term dominance of Li-ion batteries across applications. However, market
actors should consider how to capitalize on near-term economic opportunities
from Li-ion without sacrificing progress or truncating opportunities for nascent
applications where new technologies are better suited.
Regulators and policymakers must look ahead to
understand just how quickly lower-cost batteries will
accelerate the transition to zero-carbon grids and open
new pathways for mobility electrification.
The rate of change in the battery space, measured in terms of both falling
prices and diversifying performance attributes of new technologies, is
outpacing the adaptive capacity of the electricity sector to integrate
new solutions. Dramatically lower storage costs will disrupt conventional
assumptions about optimal grid architectures and open a rapidly widening
array of opportunities for delivering energy services. Utilities and their
regulators must build scenarios based on forward price curves to assess the
possible implications of falling prices for batteries and renewable power in
order to minimize the risks of investing in assets that could soon be stranded.
The synergies now emerging from the smart combination of renewable
supply, storage, and demand flexibility will require new methods of planning
and analysis as well as revamping traditional utility business models.
In the mobility sector, alternative battery technologies will open up new
market opportunities for longer-range EVs and electric heavy transport,
as well as provide new options for the cost-effective build-out of DC fast-
charging infrastructure.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 9
Massive investments in battery manufacturing and
steady advances in technology have set in motion a
seismic shift in how we will power our lives and organize
energy systems as early as 2030.
Over the past 10 years, a global ecosystem has emerged to provide a
foundation for rapid innovation and scaling of these new technologies
(Exhibit 1). This ecosystem includes:
• Large and Diverse Private Investments: Venture capital investments in
energy storage technology companies exceeded $1.4 billion in the first half of
2019 alone and have continued to increase.3 This money flows increasingly
from acquisitions as well as non-traditional sources, including venture capital
funds targeting risky and early-stage technologies (e.g., Breakthrough
Energy Ventures), consortia of utilities targeting later-stage commercialization
(e.g., Energy Impact Partners), and a growing number of incubators and
accelerators.4
• Ambitious Government Support: Government support for early-stage
research and development (R&D) continues to drive new innovations. As
countries and major cities set ambitious goals for electric vehicle (EV) adoption,
programs to support domestic battery manufacturing have followed.5
• Strategic Alliances: A diverse array of players—vehicle OEMs, oil and gas
majors, and battery manufacturers—are forming strategic alliances with
companies working on alternative battery technologies in efforts to gain a
competitive edge.
• Diversifying Global Manufacturing Investment: These incentives and
the anticipated exponential growth in EV adoption have led to massive
investments in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery manufacturing capacity, which is
expected to more than triple to 1.3 TWh by 2023.6 More than half of this
capacity is in China, but countries in Europe and other parts of Asia have
announced their own investments in an effort to compete, many with new
lithium battery chemistries.
Introduction
1
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 11
China’s state council
proposed the first set of
goals for NEV production
and deployment
United States implements
federal tax credit
for EV purchases
China New Energy Vehicle (NEV)
subsidy expanded to private vehicles
Li+ ion price (historic and projected)
European Battery
Alliance is launched
India announces goal
of 100% EV sales by 2030
Volkswagen settlement provides
$2 billion for North American
EV charging infrastructure
The Japanese
government created
a new research entity:
Consortium for Lithium
Ion Battery Technology
and Evaluation Center
China venture capital
EV investment exceeds
$6 billion
California sets goal
of 5 million zero emission
vehicles by 2030
France, Germany
seek approval for
state-backed battery
cell consortium
Lithium-ion battery suppliers are poised
to reach at least 1,330 GWh of
combined annual manufacturing
capacity by 2023
Daimler and VW commit
to not developing any more
ICE cars
India approves National Mission on
Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage
Cumulative Li-ion Battery Demand (Actual and Predicted)
Summary Timeline of Li-ion Battery Market Development for EVs
2009 2010
2017
2018
2019
2023
Cumulative Li-ion Battery Demand (GWh)EXHIBIT 1
12 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
INTRODUCTION
Investment in research and development (R&D) will
continue to unlock better performance, while faster
adoption in both mobile and stationary applications
will create self-reinforcing feedback loops for demand
growth and price decreases.
The combined outputs of these ecosystem elements have compounding
effects, leading to a far faster rate of innovation and disruption than most
analysts have expected. The resulting nonlinear increase in the value
proposition of battery technology across multiple applications reinforces
the cycle of demand creation and investment.
Performance Multipliers
Historic and continuing investments in Li-ion technologies are leading to
batteries that perform better against multiple attributes, especially energy
density and cycle life (Exhibit 2).7 The resulting improvements in EV range,
price, and model availability will foster rapid, near-term acceleration of
consumer adoption. As illustrated in Exhibit 3, such improvements have
multiplicative and self-reinforcing effects—as the prices decrease, batteries
are simultaneously becoming longer lasting, lighter, and safer, leading
to rapid increases in value for customers. As early adoption shifts to
exponential growth, additional investment and enabling policies reinforce
the cycle of innovation. Newer innovations approaching commercialization,
such as solid-state technology, could unlock even more dramatic cost
reductions and step changes in performance.
EXHIBIT 2
Energy Density Is One Example of a Continual Performance Improvement
That Has Compounding Effects on the Value Proposition of Advanced
Battery Technologies
Source: Data from BNEF
2x4
Cheaper Cost
Cost and Performance Improvements Drive Investment
and Innovation Feedback Loops
Better Value Proposition
Energy
Density
2x
4x
8x
Investment in
Research and
Development
Investment in
Manufacturing
Increased
Demand
EXHIBIT 3
14 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
Dramatic scaling effects: Ambitious governmental EV adoption targets
and significant growth in adoption rates have sent signals to manufacturers
and capital markets that have encouraged investments in the Li-ion supply
chain. In early 2019, updates to announced battery manufacturing capacity
increased substantially on a monthly basis, suggesting that investors
were responding to perceived market growth opportunities (Exhibit 4).8,9
As this new production capacity comes online, price declines driven by
economies of scale, manufacturing technology and process improvements,
and industrial and unit design will continue. Battery pack prices have fallen
by an average annual rate of 21% since 2010, or at an 18% learning rate with
every doubling in production (Exhibit 5).10 Analysts expect the capital cost
for new planned manufacturing capacity (on a per-gigawatt hour [GWh]
basis) to drop by more than half from 2018 to 2023.11
INTRODUCTION
EXHIBIT 4
2019 Q1 Growth in Global Battery Factory Capacity Pipeline (GWh)
Source: Data from BNEF
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Battery Factory Capacity Pipeline (GWh)2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Jan 2019 (Global)
Feb 2019 (Global)
March 2019 (Global)
289
1,054
1,714
1
10
100
1,000
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Li-ion Pack Price ($/kWh)Li-ion Battery Demand (GWh)
Observed
Predicted
Li-ion pack price declines have undergone exponential
cost declines as production scales up
18% Learning Rate
EXHIBIT 5
Historic and Projected Li-ion Pack Price Declines against Production
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 15
These investments will push both Li-ion and new battery
technologies to cross competitive thresholds for new
applications more quickly than anticipated.
Li-ion battery chemistries began to scale, differentiate, and proliferate
with cell phones and laptops. Now, as the battery market continues to
grow, the number of competitive use cases will similarly expand beyond
light-duty EVs. As illustrated in Exhibit 6, energy storage will contribute
to the replacement of natural gas plants and gain a foothold in other new
market segments, including heavy trucking and short-range aviation. As
this transition occurs, legacy infrastructure across the fossil fuel value chain
risks becoming stranded, including gas pipelines and internal combustion
engine (ICE) manufacturing plants.12
Diversifying applications will create opportunities for new battery
chemistries to compete with Li-ion.
• Solid-state batteries such as rechargeable zinc alkaline, Li-metal, and Li-
sulfur will help electrify heavier mobility applications.
• Low-cost and long-duration batteries such as zinc-based, flow, and high-
temperature technologies will be well suited to provide grid balancing in a
high-renewable and EV future.
• High-power batteries, which are best compared on a $/kW basis, are well
positioned to enable high penetration and fast charging of EVs.
INTRODUCTION
16 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
EVs in India: Capital cost of electric
two-, three-, and four-wheelers in India
is cheaper than internal combustion
engines (ICEs)
Existing Natural Gas Plants:
CEPs batteries compete with
existing gas turbines in the South,
West, and Northeast of the United States.
EVs in US: Larger-bodied
electric vehicles, popularin the United
States, become competitive with ICE
vehicles on a capital cost basis
Competitive Thresholds for Advanced Battery Technologies
to Displace Incumbent Technologies
Li+ ion
Li-metal
Li-S
Zinc based
Flow
High Temperature
Micro-mobility
(e-bikes and
scooters) business
models become
competitive
Electric Vehicles (EVs) become more cost-eective
on a lifetime basis: Total cost per mile of four-wheel
electric vehicles becomes less than internal
combustion engine vehicles
New Natural Gas Plants:
Clean Energy Portfolios (CEPs) with
batteries will become cheaper than
new natural gas generation (CC & CT)
EXHIBIT 6
Batteries to 2025 LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
2
18 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BATTERIES TO 2025 LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
CONTINUED DIVERSIFICATION OF LI-ION
TECHNOLOGIES
Li-ion batteries’ scaling pathway is unlike that for silicon
photovoltaic cells; investment continues to differentiate
among chemistries with performance attributes that are
best suited to specific use cases.
As investment in Li-ion grows, companies are pursuing different battery
chemistry compositions with widely varying performance attributes (Exhibit
7). The number of battery types will likely continue to diverge in terms of
the types of anodes, cathodes, separators, and electrolytes used. These
various approaches are pursuing improvements across several areas:
• Specific Energy: Competition between EV manufacturers will continue
to fuel the search for more space- and weight-efficient batteries. Li-nickel
manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and Li-nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA)
chemistries have the most effort directed toward increasing energy
density at an affordable cost.
• Cycle Life: Fast charging and temperature strain have big impacts on Li-ion
battery cycle life. Li-iron phosphate (LFP) and Li-titanate (LTO) have good
cycle life but are not the main focus of current manufacturing additions, as
this cycle life comes at the expense of specific energy and cost.13 These
two chemistries will retain market share and may grow in the future.
• Safety: Todays Li-ion batteries are vulnerable to cooling and controls
failures due to their use of highly flammable electrolytes. The required
thermal management systems and controls add around 1%–5% to total
pack costs, and decrease round trip efficiency. Project developers,
investors, policymakers, and regulators should gain familiarity with
differences in manufacturer quality to minimize risk.
• Cost: Battery packaging costs represent around 19%–34% of the total pack
price.14 Continual manufacturing improvements are expected to reduce
packaging costs by 10%–15%.15 Cathode improvements represent one key
area for cost reduction, especially decreasing cobalt content
(e.g., moving from NMC 111 to NMC 811.)ii This requires significant R&D and
carries similar technological risks to other new battery chemistries.
ii NMC 111 refers to the ratio of nickel, manganese, and cobalt. 811 has 8 parts nickel for every part manganese and cobalt. Other combinations, like NMC 532, have also been
successful.
Existing Li-ion Chemistries
NMC
NCA
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
LTO
LMO
LFP
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
How each battery type currently performs
on each metric is represented
by the dark green outline.
The highest theoretically achievable
level for each metric of the Li-ion
chemistries here is represented by the
green-shaded area.
EXHIBIT 7
Relative Performance Characteristics of Selected Li-ion Chemistries
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 19
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
Resulting innovations could improve all aspects of Li-ion
battery performance, but tradeoffs persist.
Automotive companies, start-ups, national research labs, and universities
are heavily invested in improving Li-ion batteries. Exhibit 8 illustrates
common target applications of these technologies along with several
companies manufacturing them. Exhibit 9 shows some of the key
opportunities for improving Li-ion batteries against each performance
attribute that a host of companies are pursuing. While a future Li-ion
chemistry may perform better across all metrics, battery research into
different compositions historically results in tradeoffs between performance
characteristics. As a result, different batteries will be better suited to
diverging applications based on their unique performance qualities.
For example, NMC innovators are trying to realize a low-cobalt cathode
(NMC 811); however, since cobalt acts as a battery stabilizer, low-cobalt
chemistries tend to sacrifice stability and cycle life in exchange for cost and
range improvements.
Primary Use Cases
Representative
Manufacturers
NMC
Power tools, electric
vehicles
CATL, Sanyo, Panasonic,
Samsung, LG Chem, SK
Innovation
NCA
Electric vehicles
Tesla/Panasonic
LFP
Electric buses, grid
storage
BYD, K2, Lishen, Saft, GS
Yuasa, A123, Valence, BAK
LTO
Personal electronics, UPS,
some electric vehicles
Altairnano, Toshiba, Yabo
LMO
(Li-manganese
oxide)
Power tools, some electric
vehicles (often combined
with NMC)
Hitachi, Samsung, LG
Chem, Toshiba, NEC
EXHIBIT 8
The Varying Characteristics of Li-ion Chemistries Contribute to the
Diversification and Specialization of Use Cases and Integrators
20 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 21
Existing Li-ion Chemistries
NMC
NCA
Energy Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Specific
Energy
(Wh/kg)
Power Cost
Cycle Life
Fast
Charge
Safety
Temperature
Range
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Temperature
Range
LTO
LMO
LFP
Energy Cost
Energy
Density
(Wh/L)
Energy Cost
Temperature
Range
ttery type currently performs
ic is represented
reen outline.
est theoretically achievable
each metric of the Li-ion
ies here is represented by the
aded area.
ENERGY COST
Lower material costs will come primarily
from reducing cobalt and systems costs in
solid-state batteries
FAST CHARGE
Improved electrolytes (solid state and liquid),
cathodes, and anodes are needed to realize
affordable and safe fast charging
SAFETY
Solid-state electrolytes could significantly
improve safety by replacing flammable
electrolytes
TEMPERATURE RANGE
Solid-state electrolytes represent one of the
most likely solutions to improve performance
in hot and cold environments
POWER COST:
Most product improvement plans are focused on
increasing cell voltage, which often comes at the
expense of cycle life
CYCLE LIFE
Cycle life has some of the most difficult trade-
offs with other improvement traits, although
progress continues
SPECIFIC ENERGY (WH/L) / ENERGY
DENSITY (WH/KG)
Silicon anodes are one of the main innovation
pathways for improving energy density
EXHIBIT 9
Future Advancement Pathways for Li-ion Battery Performance
22 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
DISRUPTIVE IMPACTS OF FALLING COSTS AND
IMPROVING PERFORMANCE
Falling battery costs will change the economics
of wholesale power markets, potentially stranding
investments in new natural gas-fired power generation
plants across the globe, even in cold climates.
In the United States alone, utilities have proposed $70 billion of natural
gas plants in the next decade. Increasingly, however, new natural gas
power plants are being outbid by competitive solar- or wind-plus-storage
projects. Recent analysis by RMI on clean energy portfolios (CEPs) shows
that this trend is likely to accelerate (Exhibit 10).16 CEPs are optimized,
least-cost combinations of wind and solar generation, energy efficiency,
demand response, and energy storage that provide services matching
those provided by natural gas plants. While battery storage is a higher-cost
flexibility resource relative to demand flexibility (e.g., energy efficiency and
demand response), a level playing field for those resources to compete on
the grid can create an overall more efficient and less expensive system.
The projected cost of CEPs has fallen 80% over the last ten years, driving
expectations of rapid ongoing growth in grid-tied storage installations in
the United States. Current trends show that battery installations will double
from 2018 to 2019, with more than 600 MW of storage in development.17
While most of these low-cost procurements have occurred in resource-
rich (solar or wind) environments, the falling cost of storage is driving
competitiveness of CEPs in more markets. RMI modeled CEPs optimized to
directly replace planned gas combined cycle (CC) and combustion turbines
(CT) in the United States. This study included follow-on analysis to test two
different battery scenarios—incremental and disruptive—to understand how
battery innovations and improvements would affect the competitiveness of
EXHIBIT 10
Modeled Savings From a Clean Energy Portfolio Versus Currently Planned Natural Gas Plants (Grid-Storage Scenarios)
Incremental Scenario Savings
Disruptive Scenario Savings
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 23
CEPs. The incremental scenario represents the price trajectory for Li-ion
batteries inclusive of continuous cathode and anode improvements. The
disruptive scenario represents a price trajectory in which low-cost materials
for grid storage, such as zinc- or sulfur-based batteries, gain greater market
share due to improvements and scaling.
The disruptive scenario results suggest that CEPs with significantly better
batteries could unlock substantially larger lifetime savings compared with
those achieved in the incremental scenario when compared to currently
planned gas plants. These battery improvements are especially critical in
colder climates, which face significant variability in renewable supply that
cannot be met with demand response and energy efficiency alone. Keeping
procurement open to the most cost-effective solution, including non-lithium
alternatives, will be critical for realizing the value of these innovations and
saving rate-payers money.
Falling costs of batteries and renewable power supply
will make CEPs cheap enough to strand existing natural
gas plants.
Under the disruptive battery scenario, continuing cost declines will make
CEPs competitive with the operating costs (OpEx) of existing combined
cycle gas plants within ten years over a range of natural gas prices (Exhibit
11). This has important implications for plant owners and operators as well
as the upstream gas industry. Modeling these solutions suggests that such
CEPs will begin to compete after 2025, depending on gas prices. In reality,
however, they will likely compete earlier for portions of those gas plants’
loads, since batteries at multiple scales can contribute to managing and
flattening demand and generation profiles. While this approach provides a
useful illustration of breakthrough batteries’ disruption potential, precisely
replicating a gas turbine’s profile captures only one aspect of batteries’
value, as they can participate in multiple, stacked markets, and may take on
different operational profiles than a gas turbine.
EXHIBIT 11
Comparison of CCGT OpEx Versus Clean Portfolio LCOE in Disruptive Battery Scenario
24 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
By 2023, lower capital costs will contribute to a
scale-up of EV adoption in markets like India that
utilize smaller EVs.
Many EVs are already cost-effective on a total cost of ownership
(TCO) basis, but the higher capital costs of EVs compared with internal
combustion engine vehicles remain a major adoption barrier.18 Markets like
India that use smaller and lighter EVs are expected to become competitive
well before markets where larger vehicles dominate. Exhibit 12 shows
that four-wheeled EVs will become competitive on a capital cost basis in
India around 2023 (due in part to increasing emissions regulations on ICE
vehicles). Electric vehicles using advanced Li-ion batteries in the United
States may not cross capital cost thresholds until 2030 (Exhibit 13).
Investors, policymakers, and market players should consider that:
• Urban and smaller-vehicle markets are important first markets for scaling
electric mobility.
• Alternative business models and strategies like mobility as a service
that can leverage disruptive innovations related to autonomous driving
may be needed to rapidly electrify markets that have a strong consumer
preference for large vehicles.
• Battery innovations and improvements, including beyond Li-ion
chemistries, will be important for personally owned, heavier EVs.
EXHIBIT 12
Capital Cost (INR) of Private Cars in India
EXHIBIT 13
Capital Cost ($) of Vehicles in the United States
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 25
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
Battery cost and performance improvement trajectories
could help two- and three-wheeler markets in India and
other emerging market countries reach sales penetration
levels of 80% by 2030.
These markets, dominated by lighter vehicles, represent an enormous
investment opportunity for vehicle and battery manufacturers. Given
increases in GDP per capita, vehicle ownership in India is expected to grow
7% annually until 2035. From 1991 to 2012, the number of cars, motorcycles,
and scooters in India increased 7X against a 5X GDP-per-capita increase.
In 2019, four million cars, 12 million auto-rickshaws, and 12 million two-
wheelers are expected to be sold nationwide. From 2019 to 2035, vehicle
stock of cars is expected to increase from 35 million to 96 million, while
vehicle stock of three-wheelers is expected to grow from 7 million to
28 million.
Electric two- and three-wheelers are expected to become competitive on a
capital cost basis by 2023, and will account for over 80% of such passenger
vehicles sold by 2030 (Exhibit 14).iii While cars are also estimated to have
a lower upfront cost by 2023, they constitute only about 30% of India’s
total vehicle miles traveled. Surrounding economies like Indonesia and the
Philippines are likely to see similar light EV growth in the near term.19 Policy
efforts to support battery manufacturing and EV ecosystem development
may enable other nations in the region to take advantage of this rapid
market growth.20
EXHIBIT 14
India: Expected EV Sales Penetration with Significantly Cheaper and Long-
Lasting Battery Technologies
iii Segment-wise penetration of EVs in new vehicle sales in this scenario are 30% for private cars, 70% for commercial cars, 40% for buses, and 80% for two- and three-wheelers
by 2030. This scenario assumes that FAME II and other policy measures initiated by central and state governments will help trigger rapid adoption of EVs in the country.
Three-wheelers
Two-wheelers
Cars (Private)
Buses
Cars (Commercial)
26 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
KEY NEAR-TERM CHALLENGES
Despite this trajectory and huge market opportunities,
Li-ion will not be a winner-take-all solution.
Rapid performance improvements coupled with dramatic cost reductions
have made Li-ion the seemingly ubiquitous battery technology. Its
characteristic high energy density (relative to its predecessors) has made it
ideal for personal electronics and mobility applications, as most consumers
are content to recharge these devices once or twice a day. As Li-ion
production has scaled to meet growing EV demand, manufacturing and soft
costs have declined precipitously, making longer-duration applications seem
almost within reach. Unfortunately, analysts and investors widely agree that
the costs and characteristics of Li-ion (i.e., high-power, short-duration, shallow
depth of discharge, or limited life cycle) make it less suitable for longer-
duration grid-tied or longer-range or weight-sensitive mobile applications
(e.g., aviation). Exhibit 15 shows that the levelized cost for grid applications of
Li-ion depends significantly on achieving scientific improvements associated
with advanced lithium ion, in addition to cost decreases from economies of
scale (see Appendix for modeling assumptions).

Li-ion technologies may be outcompeted by other
technologies based on:
1. Plateauing Performance Improvements:
a. Safety: Li-ion requires costly thermal management systems, and fire
risks continue to impede more rapid deployment.
b. Energy Density: High-energy and high-power applications such as
heavy transport and aviation will require technology breakthroughs
beyond the pace of current incremental improvements in Li-ion batteries.iv
c. Deep Discharge and Long Life Cycle: Long life cycles are especially
important for grid applications. Li-ion batteries will need to attain
2X cycle life improvements at 100% depth of discharge to remain
iv Current energy densities are <300 Wh/kg (gasoline = 12,000 Wh/kg).
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 27
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
competitive for today’s most common grid applications on a levelized
cost basis (Exhibit 15). Future markets such as integrating fast charging
and long duration storage are likely better suited to other technologies.
2. Constraints on Further Cost Decreases:
a. Cobalt Supply Constraints: Preferred Li-ion chemistries rely heavily
on cobalt for stability and safety; cobalt supply, however, is limited and
mostly supplied from unstable regions.
b. Limited Economies of Scale Gains: As manufacturing and balance-
of-system costs continue to decline, Li-ion pack costs will approach the
underlying cost of raw materials, limiting the potential for further soft cost
reductions.
EXHIBIT 15
Modeled Levelized Cost of Storage for Battery Technologies for Various
Grid Services
In the context of grid storage, the market needs to
move past making decisions on a capital cost basis, but
there are challenges to using a cost-of-service-provided
approach.
Transparency into levelized cost of storage (LCOS) across different grid
services is crucial for making efficient decisions on battery system selection
and affordable ratemaking. Unfortunately, a lack of meaningful or verifiable
data threatens to slow progress on grid-tied battery adoption.
Alternatives to Li-ion could be well suited to multiple grid-tied
use cases.
These technologies vary widely in their levelized cost to provide
different grid services, due largely to their respective depth of discharge
capabilities, degradation rates, and lifetimes. Battery technologies that offer
lower degradation rates (e.g., flow, high temperature, or Li-ion LFP) could be
less risky options for value-stacking use cases. Exhibit 16 shows modeled
LCOS outputs for Li-ion and flow batteries under an assumed set of stacked
value grid-support applications. See Appendix for details. Exhibit 17
summarizes the key performance characteristics and suitability of different
battery technologies for various grid use cases.
LCOS needs to account for these value-stacking capabilities,
but cumulative degradation and cycling costs for stacked value
propositions are nascent.
Unfortunately, the long-term impacts of providing different grid services
on a battery’s cycling and degradation are poorly understood, with limited
aggregated public data and significant variation between manufacturers.
The US Department of Energy has created a Protocol for Uniformly
Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage Systems
that outlines standard parameters to compare different solutions for
specific use cases.21 Such standardization is important, but the complexity
(e.g., number of use cases, amount of information needed, difficulty and
effort of obtaining that data) will remain a significant barrier to meaningful
comparison that will only be reduced over time as storage markets mature.
EXHIBIT 16
Modeled LCOS for Flow and Li-ion Batteries For Various Grid Services,
including Degradation Costs
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
28 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 29
EXHIBIT 17
Battery Technology Suitability for Grid Use Cases22,v
v Primary response includes applications such as frequency regulation and control. Secondary response includes applications such as following reserve, spinning and non-
spinning reserve, and renewables integration. Peaker replacement refers to a system capacity mechanism to meet peak demand.

Energy Arbitrage
Primary response
Peaker
Replacement
Secondary
Response
Distribution
and Transmission
Deferral
Bill Management

ISO/RTO
Utility
Customer
Duration (hours)
1–24
0.02–1
2–6
0.25–24
2–8
1–6
Size (MW)
0.001–2,000
1–2,000
1–500
10–2,000
1–500
0.001–10
Cycles/year
50–400
50–15,000
5–100
20–10,500
10–500
50–500
Technology suitability for different use cases based on parameters above
Current Li-ion
Advanced Li-ion
Flow
Zinc
High Temperature
High Suitability
Medium Suitability
Low Suitability
BATTERIES TO 2025: LI-ION DOMINATES THE MARKET
Beyond 2025
THE TRANSFORMATIONAL
POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION
BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
3
DIVERSE PATHWAYS TO MARKET

An increasingly electrified, Li-ion battery-dominated world
in the near term will open, in the longer term, significant
new market opportunities for other emerging battery
technologies that are nearing commercial readiness.
RMI’s analysis of emerging battery technologies identified six categories
(in addition to advanced Li-ion) with significant potential for achieving
commercial production by 2025 (Exhibit 18). Potential commercialization
pathways for each category are described in greater depth in the
Appendix. Company commercialization timelines are examples, not
endorsements, for each of the larger categories.
Examples of Emerging Battery Technology Commercialization Timelines
MARKET
ENTRY
Low barrier to
entry allows for
early-stage
prototyping
2018
2020
2025
MARKET
GROWTH
High willingness
to pay enables
iterative product
improvement
cycles
MASS-MARKET
CAPTURE
Mature product
available. Invest-
ments in scaling
and customer
acquisition
Lithium Metal
Liquid electrolyte
Solid State Electrolyte
Drones and
UAVs
Longer
Range EVs
High Power
Applications
Lithium Sulfur
Lithium Sulfur
Buses and
Trucks
Aviation and
Military
Longer Range
EVs
Zinc
Zinc Air
Low-Cost Backup
and Microgrids
Defer Grid
Upgrades
Ultra-Low-Cost
Mobility
High Temperature High Temperature
Grid
Balancing
Industrial
Microgrids
Long Duration
Grid Storage
Flow Batteries
Redox
Consumer
Electronics
Hybrid-Battery
Mobility
Fast EV Charging
Zinc Solid State Electrolyte
Zinc Aqueous
EXHIBIT 18
Potential Commercialization Pathway
Industry/
Microgrids
Long
Duration Grid
Storage
EV Charging Grid
Deferral
High Power
Advanced supercapacitors
Sodium Ion
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 31
32 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
THE PROMISE OF SOLID-STATE TECHNOLOGY
Solid-state technology is poised to massively disrupt
the storage industry by unlocking new opportunities for
cheap, safe, and high-performing batteries.
1. Solid state will be adopted first by OEMs that are currently pursuing
advanced Li-ion for its safety and temperature characteristics
• Current Li-ion batteries have flammable liquid electrolytes. Thermal
runaway is a persistent risk across all applications, and Li-ion will face
increased scrutiny as the market continues its exponential growth.
• Solid-state batteries are nonflammable, and could reduce dendrite growth,
improve battery life, and improve performance in cold and hot climates.
• Safety regulations will preclude the use of Li-ion batteries in
applications like air travel; they also face shipping constraints.

• Mobility and storage applications require costly temperature controls,
which are increasingly targeted for cost reductions.
2. Solid state will enable higher energy density, opening additional
market opportunities
• Solid-state research has been driven by the desire for more energy-dense
batteries, with the potential to quadruple specific energy (Exhibit 19vi).23
• Solid state has the potential to make materials like Li-metal rechargeable.
• Li-air has been long sought after but will depend on significant cathode
improvements. Heavy R&D investments and continued improvements
in zinc-air and Li-plating will make beneficial contributions.
EXHIBIT 19
Specific Energy (Wh/kg) of Different Battery Chemistries
“Once we move to solid state, you will see a
whole other innovation curve.”

– Dr. Gerbrand Ceder, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
vi Possible represents possible for R&D to achieve, not theoretically possible based on personal interviews and research (Zn-air theoretical specific energy density =1,350
Wh/kg, Li-air theoretical = 11,430 Wh/kg. See Appendix for details)
Li-Ion Chemistries
Other Chemistries
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 33
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
3. Solid state will enable the use of much cheaper materials
• Solid state could help researchers overcome rechargeability
challenges in less expensive materials like zinc, aluminum, and sulfur,
which could enable $30–$40/kWh batteries. (see Exhibit 20)
• Some solid-state materials, such as Ionics’ organic polymer, could
be commercialized in Li-ion but then subsequently enable very
inexpensive rechargeable alkaline batteries.


4. Manufacturing integration is crucial to long-term success
• Some companies and research initiatives are focused on how to integrate
solid state into existing Li-ion battery manufacturing processes, but some
solid-state gigafactories are being planned that use different processes.
• Li-metal investment must focus on low-lithium and thin film Li-foil
manufacturing
• Several solid-state companies are targeting 2024–2025 for initial EV
commercial lines, but demonstrations would likely happen before then.
EXHIBIT 20
Estimated Cost of Raw Materials for Different Battery Chemistries24
Li-Ion Chemistries
Other Chemistries
34 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING MARKETS: LONG-DURATION STORAGE,
HEAVY TRANSPORT, AND FAST-CHARGING
INFRASTRUCTURE
The potential size of and nascent demand in newly accessible
battery application markets will reinforce increasing investment in
R&D, demonstration, and early-stage deployment for both next-
generation Li-ion and other battery technologies that are
nearing commercialization.
Batteries will play a foundational role in scaling EV and related markets
over the next decade. The large-scale investments in renewable energy
and Li-ion batteries that support this ecosystem will also open up entirely
new markets. The next sections consider each of three emerging market
opportunities for advanced batteries: long-duration energy storage
systems, heavy transportation, and EV charging system integration. They
illustrate both the nascent market opportunity and some likely technology
solutions that market actors should follow closely as they design policy,
incentive, manufacturing, and investment strategies.
Long-Duration Storage
The long-duration stationary energy storage market will be large
enough to commercialize new technologies.
Demand for stationary storage reached 20 GWh in 2018, and is projected
to almost double every year in the next decade. This will play a large role
in integrating renewable energy penetrations of 16%–20% by 2025.25
Balancing the grid and replacing fossil fuels are expected to increase grid-
connected battery support to 750 GWh over the next decade, with China
and the United States projected to be the largest market segments.26
However, meeting electricity goals for <2C° global temperature increase
may require deploying batteries much faster than Li-ion price decreases
are predicted to enable (unless demand flexibility can be increased).
BNEF modeled the estimated amount of batteries needed to integrate the
renewable energy generation required for a <2 degrees Celsius warming
scenario and found that Germany, California, and North Central China
required between 4 and 13 times more energy storage than is expected
based on Li-ion cost decreases (Exhibit 21).27 Aggregating this estimate
would require 270 GW of additional storage by 2040 just for these three
regions, on top of the 900 GW already expected globally based on price
curves. A large portion of this capacity is expected to consist of storage
durations in excess of four hours.
A simplified top-down analysis provides a complementary perspective.
High renewable penetration modeling scenarios generally assume that
3%–7% of the total installed renewable capacity is required as additional
interday energy storage to account for forecast and demand uncertainty.28
If 60% of the 6,500 GW of current global electricity generation capacity
were met with variable renewable energy, it would require between 120
and 280 GW of long duration storage, or enough capacity to power France
plus Germany.29
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 35
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
EXHIBIT 21
Estimated Grid-Scale Battery Additions (MW) by 2040
Predicted Battery Deployment Due
to Li-ion Cost Decrease
Storage Deployment Needed
for <2 Degrees Warming
Source: Jeff Callens, “Can Wind, PV and Batteries Keep Us Within 2
Degrees?” BNEF, 2018
36 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Longer duration storage needs will be best addressed with low-cost
batteries that are less exposed to degradation and duty-cycle limitations.
As renewable energy penetration increases, batteries will need to
discharge over longer periods of time at extremely low cost points.
Short-duration, high-priced storage applications like peak-demand
shaving and ancillary services are well suited to the performance and cost
characteristics of Li-ion batteries. Grid economics for longer duration storage,
however, require that storage technologies compete favorably on a levelized
cost basis with least-cost generation alternatives (Exhibit 22). As storage
requirements move beyond the four-hour threshold, technologies with lower
duty-cycle degradation at full depth of discharge, lower material costs, and
longer lifetimes will be better suited to provide those lower costs than what
most analysts believe Li-ion can achieve. Market designs for specific battery
durations, such as four-hours, often have unintended consequences, and can
act as a disincentive for long-duration storage technologies.30
0%
100%
Renewable Energy Penetration
A “Duration Portfolio” sees useful storage durations increasing to match
renewable variability as more renewables are deployed
<5 Minutes: Spinning and Load Following
5–20 Minutes: Short-term Reserve
20 Minutes–2 Hours: Ramping Reserve
2–12 Hours: Intraday Balancing
12–24 Hours: Interday Balancing
Day–Months: Seasonal Balancing
EXHIBIT 22
Duration Portfolio Thinking Suggests That Intraday Storage Will Be an Important Market Segment as Renewable Energy Penetrations Increase
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 37
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Low-cost, long-duration technologies continue to improve with research,
demonstration, and deployment.
The expected scaling markets for long-duration storage technologies
focus on the value of energy over power, as is common in some resilience
and deferral applications. Exhibit 23 illustrates the relative performance
attributes of battery technologies that will likely be better suited for long-
duration storage.
Zinc Batteries
Zinc-based anodes, coupled with low-cost cathodes, like air, are used to
create an inexpensive battery, with improving cycle life. These could also
include zinc alkaline batteries in the future, enabled by solid-state electrolytes.
Flow Batteries
Flow batteries use externally stored fluids to generate energy as they flow
past each other. They have reached a point of maturity and some can
outcompete Li-ion for energy-focused, long lifetime use cases.
High-Temperature Batteries
Liquid-metal batteries could provide low-cost, long-duration grid balancing
based on their safety and long life cycles and preference for active cycling,
similar to traditional generators.
EXHIBIT 23
Relative Properties of Potential Long Duration Battery Technologies
Zinc
High Temperature
Safety
Safety
Cost
Cost
Energy Density
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Cycle Life
Current zinc
Future zinc
Current high temperature
Future high temperature
Flow Batteries
Safety
Cost
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Current flow batteries
Future flow batteries
38 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Heavy Transportation
Battery technology advances are critical for expanding
electrification to heavy mobility markets, which will gain increasing
traction beyond China over the next decade.
Road Transport
Multiple large corporations have announced fleet electrification goals by
2030, and as of late 2018, more than a dozen countries have agreed to
phase out internal combustion engines.31 The combination of declining
battery costs, mobility-as-a-service business models, increased
urbanization, and carbon emission goals are encouraging the rapid
electrification of:
• E-buses: Electric buses are already cost comparable with diesel buses on
a total cost of ownership basis.32 They are expected to represent 60% of
the global municipal bus market by 2030 and 80% by 2040 (Exhibit 24).33
EXHIBIT 24
Annual Incremental Electric Bus Adoption Forecast
• Trucking and Other Commercial Vehicles: Industry analysts estimate that
by 2030, EVs will make up 8%, 12%, and 27% of the heavy, medium, and
light commercial fleets respectively.34
Aviation
Emissions from aviation are expected to triple by 2050.35 Some countries
are leading early efforts to shift the industry toward electrification. Norway,
for example, has committed to electrifying all short-haul flights by 2040.
These flights of less than three hours of travel time represent more than
75% of all flights taken globally.36 In fact, of the more than 39,000 new
aircraft the industry expects to deliver over the next 20 years, 76% fall
into this “small” size and range category (3,000-nautical mile range). At
an assumed average unit price of $100 million, this represents a $3 trillion
investment over that time period, or roughly $150 billion/year on a simple
average annual basis.37
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 39
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
The Required Technology Advances are Achievable
Battery technology advances, especially in safety and energy density, are
crucial to scaling heavy mobility markets. But the rate of battery improvement
and innovation, and the subsequent opportunities to redesign transport
through systems engineering, suggests that such massive transformation is
possible. In the last 10 years, for example, electric drones have ballooned into
a $14 billion annual market, indicative of the possibilities when whole-systems
design can help optimize cost and performance.38
Electric heavy transport will be enabled by advances in
high energy-density and high power-density batteries.
The higher safety, energy density, and performance characteristics
of advanced storage technologies will unlock whole-systems design
pathways (e.g., lightweighting) to reduce total system cost.
The effect of lightweighting can be understood by considering a 10-ton
bus in which the original battery is 50% of the bus’s total weight (Exhibit
25). Doubling the energy density would reduce the battery weight from
5 tons to 2.5 tons. This unlocks a compounding effect as the much
lighter vehicle would require a significantly smaller battery to achieve
the same range. This means that the cost of additional range for heavy
transport is much smaller for high energy-density batteries (Exhibit 26).39
EXHIBIT 25
Lightweighting Design Feedback Loop

EXHIBIT 26
High Energy Density Chemistries Are Crucial for Enabling Long-Distance
Heavy Mobility
Bus total
weight
2X energy density
in battery
Battery weight
decreases by half
Bus weight =
0.75 * initial
weight
Smaller battery needed to meet
range targets will decrease bus
total weight further
Cost of additional range (US$ km-1)Driving range (km)
Cost of Additional Range by Battery Chemistry
Ni–MH
Li–ion
Pb–acid
Li–air
Zn–air
Li–S
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Cano et al 2018
40 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Additionally, lightweighting with battery materials that are safe enough to
be incorporated into the structural elements of the vehicle will generate
additional system efficiencies (Exhibit 28). High-power batteries (e.g.,
supercapacitors) will be especially important for regeneratively capturing
and leveraging inertia, and can be used to get vehicles up to speed without
depleting the energy stored in primary batteries.
Exhibit 27 illustrates the relative performance attributes of battery
technologies that may help unlock larger-scale adoption of electric
heavy transport.
Li-Metal Batteries
Li-metal batteries with improved electrolytes, such as solid state, can have
higher energy density.

Li-Sulfur Batteries
Li-S batteries are enabled by solid-state and hybrid electrolytes to take
advantage of high energy density and low material costs.
High-Power Supercapacitors
Electrochemical supercapacitors using graphene and sodium-ion batteries
are a low-cost, high-power opportunity with significant energy density
improvements from previous supercapacitors.
EXHIBIT 27
Relative Properties of Battery Technologies That Could Accelerate Electric Heavy Transport
Li-metal
Li-S
High Power
Safety
Safety
Safety
Cost
Cost
Cost
Energy Density
Energy Density
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Specific Energy
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Cycle Life
Cycle Life
Current Li-metal
Future Li-metal
Current Li-S
Future Li-S
Current high power
Future high power
EXHIBIT 28
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 41
42 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
Electric Vehicle Fast-charging Infrastructure
Fast-charging infrastructure requires massive expansion to meet the
needs of a rapidly growing EV market.
In 2025, more EVs will be sold than are currently in use in 2019. Today,
more than 630,000 charging stations around the world support around
5 million EVs. By 2025, analysts estimate that there will be 30 million EVs
on the road, necessitating an increase in the amount of charging needed.
Without significant investment in accessible charging infrastructure,40 that
exponential growth in EV adoption may slow by 2040, despite continued
battery cost declines. Assuming one DC fast charger for every 10 EVs in
2030 would mean a necessary 10 million DC fast charging stations globally
by 2030.
Batteries as EV support infrastructure
Charging stations, and specifically DC fast chargers, can add significant
costs for the owner and customers using that equipment. This results from
both the significant electrical and other infrastructure upgrades required
and the expected costs of increased demand charges against the owners’
electric utility account. Strategically siting energy storage at or near fast-
charging infrastructure could help smooth demand spikes and strain on the
grid, thereby lowering overall system costs and enhancing reliability.
Fast-charging infrastructure costs can be minimized with batteries
that couple high-power fast charging with long lifetimes and low
cycle costs, even with multiple complete discharges per day.
Direct current (DC) fast charging installations currently span a wide range of
capital costs—between $4,000 and $51,000 per charger—due primarily to
electrical upgrades, trenching, and boring.41 The aforementioned increases
in demand charges may also create an economic barrier to their adoption.
These system costs could be significantly reduced by co-designing fast
chargers with batteries that could serve in a demand buffering capacity.
The emissions reduction impact of this approach could be enhanced
through grid intelligence software that optimizes the recharging of those
batteries based on the real-time penetration of renewables on the grid.
Flow batteries could also provide an opportunity to repurpose urban
gas stations with lower upgrade costs, since liquid electrolyte could be
refilled by exchanging or adding electrolyte that is recharged from nearby
renewable energy production facilities (Exhibit 29).
Research and development for batteries that can reduce grid upgrade
and management costs is providing a suite of solutions that could help
reimagine optimal approaches to grid infrastructure and vehicle-to-grid
interactions to support the electric mobility transition. Flow batteries and
high-power batteries (discussed above under Long Duration Storage and
Heavy Transportation, respectively) are two such technologies. Their
relative performance attributes are shown again for comparison in Exhibit 30.
URBAN
Urban locations can leverage existing gas station infrastructure
to provide DC fast charging at gas stations. Electrolyte can be
recharged at nearby renewable energy power plants.
Rural locations co-located with energy production can use high-power
batteries for fast charging that can provide more than 100,000 cycles.
RURAL
Flow-battery electrolyte
EXHIBIT 29
Battery-Based Strategies for Integrating DC Fast Charging
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 43
44 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
BEYOND 2025: THE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF NEXT-GENERATION BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
EXHIBIT 30
Relative Properties of Battery Technologies That Could Accelerate or Enhance DC Fast-charging Infrastructure Build-out
High Power
Safety
Cost
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Current high power
Future high power
Flow Batteries
Safety
Cost
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Current flow batteries
Future flow batteries
Implications for Regulators,
Policymakers, and Investors
4
Implications for Regulators, Policymakers, and Investors
46 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
Capturing the massive economic opportunity underlying the shift to
battery-based energy systems requires an ecosystem approach.
The increasing and divergent mobility and grid-tied storage applications that
breakthrough battery technologies can address hold incredible potential
to reduce carbon and other polluting emissions while unlocking enormous
new sources of economic value. The growing scale of public and private
investment, as well as the accelerating momentum in the EV and renewable
energy markets, make it clear that these energy storage technologies will
play a crucial role in our energy future.
As cost and performance improvements continue to outpace analyst
forecasts, investors, vehicle OEMs, and other value chain players are racing
to meet expected Li-ion battery demand while competitively pursuing
incremental and step-change improvements that can reduce costs or
open up entirely new end-use markets. Similarly, national governments are
scrambling to incentivize battery and component manufacturing and ongoing
research, development, and deployment as they recognize the massive scale
of lost economic potential and the inherent national security risks of relying
on foreign suppliers. Supporting this type of innovation and energy system
transformation, however, requires an ecosystem approach that combines and
aligns these private and public sector commitments.42
Regions that fail to develop such an ecosystem will sacrifice those
economic gains to their global trading partners, as has been the
case with China’s dominance over solar photovoltaic manufacturing.
China has rapidly ascended to the position of global renewable energy
superpower. This has particularly been the case with solar PV manufacturing,
where early and significant investments in large-scale manufacturing
eventually led to overproduction and subsequent price drops that forced
many competitors out of business (Exhibit 31).43
EXHIBIT 31
Global Annual PV Industry Production by Region (GW)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Data: Up to 2009: Navigant Consulting; since 2010: IHS. Graph: PSE GmbH 2018
© Fraunhofer ISE
Global Annual Production (GWp)2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Middle East & Africa
Latin America & Caribbean
India
Japan
Europe
North America
Rest of Asia-Pacific & Central Asia
China
1 2
2
3
3
4
15
68
In contrast, Chinese turbine manufacturers supply almost exclusively in-
country installations.44 As shown in Exhibit 32, early offshore wind power
market development support in Denmark and other European countries
and a robust US onshore wind market have contributed to a diverse and
competitive supplier landscape.45
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 47
EXHIBIT 32
2018 Onshore Wind Power Manufacturing Output, Top 10 Global
Suppliers (GW)
Vestas
Goldwind
GE
SGRE
Envision
Enercon
Ming Yang
Nordex
Guodian UP
Windey
Europe, the
Middle East,

& Africa
Americas
Asia &
Pacific
0.94
1.29
2.43
2.44
2.53
3.28
4.08
4.96
6.66
10.09
(Gigawatts)“No country has put itself in a better position
to become the world’s renewable energy
superpower than China. In aggregate, it is now
the world’s largest producer, exporter, and
installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries,
and electric vehicles, placing it at the forefront
of the global energy transition.”
–IRENA, A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation
Source: BNEF
Region Where Capacity was Installed:
Notes: Only includes onshore wind capacity.
SGRE is Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy.
48 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
Without coordinated action to bolster other regional ecosystems,
the trajectory for Li-ion battery manufacturing could follow solar
PV’s path.
In the electric mobility sector, China has a glaring lead in both battery
manufacturing and EV deployment over the rest of the world. China is
already the world’s largest EV market (Exhibit 33) and can currently claim
more than 60% of installed battery manufacturing capacity.46 This has
largely been driven by China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) program, which
set the country’s first EV production and deployment goals in 2009,
including subsidies offered exclusively to domestic suppliers.47 Several
extensions and enhancements to the program created a level of policy
certainty that resulted in an explosion of EV models and vehicle and battery
manufacturing capacity.
Next-generation Li-ion and alternative battery technologies,
however, represent a diverse set of opportunities for continued
investment, innovation, and value capture in the battery-based
economy.
The pathway for non-Li-ion grid-tied storage technologies and some
of the more innovative battery technologies currently approaching
commercialization is less evident. Analysts forecast a relatively distributed
profile of stationary energy storage deployments globally, suggesting that
learning rates and economies of scale are less likely to be captured by any
one global player (Exhibit 34).
In the case of nascent end-use applications enabled by expected battery
technology advancements, a diverse and complementary ecosystem
of suppliers, integrators, and OEMs is likely to emerge. Developing an
innovation ecosystem that can effectively support so many divergent
opportunities is challenging, but the cost of inaction may outweigh the risk
of some investments failing to pan out. This puts regional governments
and their public- and private-sector stakeholders at a critical crossroads for
determining their respective roles in the future battery economy.
EXHIBIT 33
Comparison of EV Sales and Penetration by Leading Ten Countries, 2017
Source: IHS Markit “Reinventing the Wheet: Mobility and Energy Future” Service
In 2017, the U.S. was the second largest purchaser of EVs, after China. However, six
countries, including China, had greater EV sales as a percentage of their domestic
market.
EVs sold (thousands)EV uptakes ranking (EVs as percent of LV sales)
Size of circle reflects total
number of EVs sold
China
2.3% – Share of
total EV sales
Norway
31.2%
Netherlands
2.0%
UK
1.7% France
1.7%
Germany
1.6%
USA
1.2%
Spain
0.6%
Denmark
0.5%
Italy
0.2%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
795
695
595
495
395
295
195
95
-0
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 49
EXHIBIT 34
Global Cumulative Energy Storage Installations
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: BNEF
(GW)2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Other
South Korea
Japan
United Kingdom
Australia
France
Southeast Asia
Latin America
Germany
India
United States
China
50 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
The current state of support ecosystems for battery storage
technology focuses heavily on mobility applications and
encouraging domestic manufacturing capacity, with emerging
efforts tailored to grid-tied storage applications.
The exhibits on the following pages provide a comparative overview of
battery technology support ecosystems in the four largest greenhouse
gas-emitting countries (China, the United States, the European Union, and
India).vi Major policy and investment actions are categorized across each
of four categories of ecosystem supports, all of which play a key role in
driving new technology adoption. The elements shown are intended to
illustrate different approaches to supporting market development and are
not comprehensive.
Two major trends are evident across each ecosystem:
• Mobility markets are driving demand and cost declines. The anticipated
exponential growth in EV adoption has driven each of these nations’ focus
primarily toward mobile applications for advanced battery technologies.
End-use demand support in the form of EV targets or incentives (or
outright bans on ICE vehicles) are the most common shared elements.
More recently, several countries have announced investments to support
advanced R&D or to bolster the development of domestic battery
manufacturing capacity.
• The nascent grid storage market is about to take off. Manufacturing-
and supply chain-focused support specifically for grid-focused storage
are harder to find. More effort is currently focused on ongoing R&D,
demonstration projects, and, in particular, regulations to better enable
storage to compete on level terms with primary power sources. In the
past two years, the United States, China, and the European Commission
have all taken steps to allow energy storage better access to power
markets. As utilities, grid operators, and integrators gain more experience
with Li-ion and other advanced (and longer-duration) batteries, cost
and regulatory barriers will quickly diminish, unlocking a flood of new
storage capacity demand to balance the variability of renewable energy
generation with zero emissions.
vi The European Union is included as a single governing body given its shared policy approach to addressing economic and climate-related issues.
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 51
EXHIBIT 35
Key Elements of China’s Battery Technology Support Ecosystem
CHINA
Research & Development
Demonstration & Commercialization
Scaled Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Demand Generation
(2019) Siemens and Tianmu Lake Institute of
Advanced Energy Storage to open battery
research center. First center to co-locate third-
party testing, R&D verification, and technology
services. Located near large manufacturers.
(2009–2019) New Energy Vehicles Program: Subsidy program targeting 7 million battery electric,
plug-in hybrid, or fuel cell vehicles sold by 2025; includes private vehicles and buses.
(2019) China Tower commits to purchase 5
GWh of second-life Li-ion batteries to provide
telecom tower backup power; the largest such
commitment to date
(2018) New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy:
Provides quota and credit system for
manufacturers.
(2014–2016) Central government and some
cities and public organizations required to
have vehicle fleets comprising 30% EVs by
2016; (2016) goal increased to 50%.
(2019) 720-MWh, 4-hour battery storage pilot
approved to support renewable energy push
(2019) Ancillary services market will transition
from basic compensation mechanism to a
market integrated with spot energy prices by
2020; demand for grid-tied storage expected
to “skyrocket” by 2024.
China’s Undisputed Dominance
Scale and policy certainty matter. China’s support for EVs and domestic
manufacturing started early, was large scale, and has remained relatively
consistent (Exhibit 35). The magnitude of those targets and the associated
subsidies (~$10,000 per vehicle produced) have been key drivers for a
surge in battery and vehicle manufacturing. While many vehicle OEMs
may wind down as subsidies tighten, market leaders will have gained a
significant lead in production volumes and associated learning rates versus
their global competitors. China’s persistent development of upstream ore
processing and key material and component manufacturing capabilities
also provides an advantage.

Mobility-focused Efforts
Grid-focused Efforts
52 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
EXHIBIT 36
Key Elements of the European Union’s Battery Technology Support Ecosystem
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
EUROPE
Research & Development
Demonstration & Commercialization
Scaled Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Demand Generation
(2018) Northvolt breaks ground on Swedish
battery R&D center
(2017) European Commission announces
the European Battery Alliance to create a
competitive, sustainable battery-manufacturing
value chain in Europe; quickly followed by a
vision of 10–20 gigafactories. More than 260
organizations have joined.
(Multiple) Bans on petrol and diesel cars:
Norway (2025); Sweden (2030); France
and UK (by 2040); Germany (vehicles 100%
emissions-free by 2030)
(2019) German Federal Ministry of Education and Research launches the €500 million Battery Cell
Research Production Center, a new R&D and large-scale industrial manufacturing plant for Li-ion
cells
(2017) Germany commits to allocate €1 billion through 2021 for local companies with competitive
proposals for Li-ion production; (2018) France announces a similar commitment for €700 million.
Includes support for public charging stations.
(2019) France and Germany unveil a $5.6–$6.7 billion alliance (the “Airbus for batteries”) to
develop next-generation batteries for EVs
(2018) Sweden’s Northvolt raises $1 billion to
complete funding for large battery plant
(2016) Germany releases an EV incentive scheme
worth about €1 billion, with €4,000 off the
purchase of fully electric cars
(2019) CATL increases investment in German R&D center from €240 million to up to €1.8 billion
(2018) Poland and Germany announce a
cooperation on battery cell production in
eastern Germany and western Poland
(2018) EU ministers agree on 35% cut to CO
2

emissions from cars by 2030
(2014–2020) Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Horizon
2020, granted ~€335 million to battery-based projects for grid energy storage and low-carbon
mobility
(2019) France and Germany seek antitrust
approval from the European Commission for a
cross-border consortium that would produce
Li-ion cells
(2019) European Parliament adopts market
design rules finalizing the Clean Energy for All
Europeans package, which opens up electricity
markets to energy storage.
`
(2014–2018) European Institute of Technology
Knowledge and Innovation Communities
InnoEnergy (EIT InnoEnergy KIC) and
RawMaterials (EIT RawMaterials KIC) spend up
to €112 million in energy storage demonstration
and deployment
Europe’s Awakening
The European Commission has rapidly accelerated its support for the
advanced battery value chain over the past three years, driven largely by a
fear of dependence on and lost economic opportunity to China and the rest
of Asia. Analysts now expect Europe to overtake the United States in terms of
installed manufacturing capacity in the next few years. Notably, a large share
of that new capacity will be built by Chinese and other Asian companies.48
Mobility-focused Efforts
Grid-focused Efforts
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 53
UNITED STATES
Research & Development
Demonstration & Commercialization
Scaled Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Demand Generation
(2016) Pacific Northwest National Lab launches
the Battery 500 Consortium, a five-year, $50
million effort to achieve 500 Wh/kg energy
density using Li-metal batteries
(2009) $2.4 billion in federal grants awarded
under the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act to manufacturers of Li-ion cells, battery
packs, and materials
(2009–2019) Federal tax credit for EV
purchases; more than half of US states provide
some form of EV purchase incentive
(2019) DOE launches ReCell, its first Li-ion
battery recycling R&D center, with a focus on
reducing dependence on foreign sources of
battery materials
(2016–2026) VW settlement: $2 billion of
funding for EV charging infrastructure
US DOE’s ARPA-E program has funded many EV and grid-tied storage projects, including batteries,
automotive controls, and efficient EV chargers as well as a $30 million long-duration storage
program announced in 2018.
(2018) California sets goal of 5 million zero
emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030 with bigger
ZEV subsidies
(2019) 1,000 MWh long-duration energy storage
demonstration project announced in Utah that
combines compressed air storage, hydrogen
storage, large flow batteries, and solid-oxide
fuel cells
(2013–2019) Several states have gigawatt-
scale, grid-tied energy storage targets (e.g.,
CA, NJ, NY); others have significant but lesser
incentives or goals
(2018) FERC Order 841: requires RTOs/
ISOs to remove barriers to energy storage
participation in wholesale capacity, energy,
and ancillary service markets
(2018) Order 845: revises definition of
generating facility to include electricity
storage and enables favorable interconnection
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
EXHIBIT 37
Key Elements of the United States’ Battery Technology Support Ecosystem
Mobility-focused Efforts
Grid-focused Efforts
United States’ Start and Stop Approach
Demand for EVs in the United States has grown steadily thanks to a
combination of federal tax credits and state and local incentives. However,
lack of more cohesive or comprehensive federal support has kept demand
growth to only a fraction of that seen in China and has not been enough
to drive significant domestic battery manufacturing capacity. Some
analysts cite the lack of consistent federal EV demand support as a critical
contributor to what may be future US dependence on Chinese suppliers.49
54 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGULATORS, POLICYMAKERS, AND INVESTORS
INDIA
Research & Development
Demonstration & Commercialization
Scaled Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Demand Generation
Indian Institute of Technology Madras has an
R&D center devoted to new and advanced
battery technology
(2019) Cabinet approves National Mission
on Transformative Mobility and Battery
Storage, including two Phased Manufacturing
Programmes (PMPs), each valid until 2024,
to support 1) setting up large-scale, export-
competitive integrated batteries and cell-
manufacturing gigaplants and 2) localizing
production across the entire EV value chain.
(2017) Federal goal: 100% EV sales by 2030
Central Electrochemical Research Institute (CECRI) has set up India’s first indigenous Li-ion
fabrication facility for batteries used in defense, solar-powered devices, railways, and other high-
end uses.
(2019) India approves $1.4 billion for EV
purchase incentives
EXHIBIT 38
Key Elements of India’s Battery Technology Support Ecosystem
India’s Rapid Acceleration
India has made significant progress in the past two years in signaling
its commitment to both an electric fleet and supporting a robust
domestic industry across the EV value chain, including battery and cell
manufacturing. As evidenced by the adoption of the National Mission
on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage, India’s ministers appear
determined to maximize the economic benefits of a rapid shift to electric
mobility in India’s rapidly growing urban areas.
Mobility-focused Efforts
Recommendations
5
Recommendations
As Li-ion battery costs and performance continue steadily improving,
ecosystem actors may be tempted to assume its long-term dominance
across applications. This report has shown, however, that these
improvements will instead create footholds for a divergent set of
battery technologies with performance characteristics that are better
suited to those use cases than today’s Li-ion batteries. The following
recommendations are intended to help key stakeholders continue to
develop battery technology innovation ecosystems that anticipate this shift.
Planners and Policymakers
Think comprehensively and strategically about opportunities in the
looming storage market. The market will grow rapidly. While Li-ion will
dominate in the near team, new technologies (both advanced Li-ion and
alternative chemistries) will unlock additional applications sooner than
expected. Consider areas where such nascent opportunities could emerge
by keeping up to date on new technologies and how they can help solve
emerging energy transition challenges.
Help innovators demonstrate bankability. The noise and excitement
surrounding Li-ion can serve to diminish attention and funding from other
promising, near-commercial technologies. Consider opportunities to bring
competing technologies to market through:
• Demonstration funding
• Data-sharing platforms and incentives
• Testing standards and accessible, independent testing facilities
• Innovative re-insurance approaches to back up OEM warranties
Incentivize the diversification of grid-tied storage use cases. Incentives for
early adopters to apply storage technologies to a broader set of uses (e.g.,
ancillary services, arbitrage) can deepen collective knowledge of storage’s value
as well as the cost impacts of performance degradation and cycling impacts.
Take a long view on supply challenges. There will be fluctuations in lithium
supply, but the market will adjust.
Segment EV policy supports based on vehicle size:
• Smaller EVs (including two- and three-wheelers) will be faster to electrify
than larger vehicles; create local policies to facilitate consumer adoption
of smaller EVs.
• Consider incentives for larger companies to support shared/corporate
R&D and ownership for larger vehicles.
Investors
Diversify across near-term and long-term commercialization plays.
Consider participating in focused investment partnerships that support
both early-stage R&D and precommercial battery innovations, the risks and
investment timelines of which may not align with traditional venture capital
criteria.
Collaborate to speed collective time to market. Support open innovation,
accelerator, and innovation testing platforms to help speed the vetting of
technologies and sharing of lessons across the startup ecosystem.
Mix and match to spot new opportunities. Markets and applications that are
a best fit for some precommercial battery technologies may not exist today.
Consider what new applications a technology could unlock, as well as how
hybrid technology systems might offer unique value propositions (e.g.,
pairing two battery types to support an EV fast-charging station).
Adopt a whole systems design perspective. Look at battery-integrated
products from a system perspective to capture efficiency and safety
improvements (e.g., batteries integrated into vehicle structure).
Learn from and invest in earlier markets. Watch and invest in first markets
(e.g., drones, microgrids, fast-charging consumer devices, and non-wire
alternatives) to gain early insights into longer-term, larger opportunities.
Also consider that smaller devices and EVs will be faster to electrify than
large devices.
56 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
RECOMMENDATIONS
Look beyond Li-ion for competitive grid storage. Alternative technologies
to Li-ion (e.g., zinc and flow batteries) are already competitive to Li-ion
batteries for stationary applications (e.g., non-wire alternatives and back-up
generation). Early investors could capture a first-mover advantage.
Diversify and reduce risk by partnering across the value chain:
• Encourage technology providers to engage with battery system
integrators and proven manufacturers early on in their development
cycles to accelerate learning and time to market.
• Leverage new products from reinsurance companies (e.g., Munich Re)
that reduce end customer technology exposure.
Regulators
For Mobility and Grid Applications:
Prioritize safety. Poorly vetted technologies, bad manufacturing, and
dangerous installations can set the entire industry back.
Create fair rules and do not prescribe a winning technology. Lay the
groundwork for open access and competition for a variety of storage
technologies; set standards for acceptable levels of performance and let
the market choose which technologies to apply.
Require data transparency to accelerate learning and efficiency. Create
standards for data reporting (with either requirements or incentives for
participation) for technology OEMs and integrators to share manufacturer-
specific lifecycle, cycling, and technology costs with regulatory and
research institutions to improve and speed policy evaluations and enable
more efficient and effective market design.
For Grid Applications:
Update resource planning processes with up-to-date information. Ensure
that electric utility, grid operator, state, and regional planning efforts (including
integrated resource plans) adopt realistic, forward-looking assumptions and
scenarios about the rapidly falling costs of storage and renewable energy
technologies.
Level the playing field between storage and other demand-side resources.
Develop planning, procurement, and measurement, reporting, and verification
(MRV) approaches that create equal opportunity among utility-owned
storage, customer-owned storage, and demand-side flexibility resources.
Drive toward all-source flexibility resource procurements (versus storage-only
procurements).
Develop pathways to integrate storage at different levels of grid operation
and control. Energy storage can provide enormous value to the grid under
several paradigms, each of which should be explored and developed. These
include: 1) customer-owned and operated storage and vehicle charging subject
to distributed control; 2) dispatchable distribution-level storage resources
controlled by distribution grid operators; and 3) dispatch or market-controlled
flexibility resources linked to wholesale markets.
Support utility pilot programs. Encourage and support utilities in developing
experience with procurement and integration of grid-tied storage.
Support common tools and data reporting for LCOS. Create tools and data
platforms that can help understand LCOS under various duty cycles and
revenue-stacking value propositions.
Broaden the scope of opportunity:
• Disaggregate grid-flexibility resource procurements so that short-term
and longer-term storage technologies can be optimized to meet different
needs; move beyond procurements for four-hour storage.
• Consider longer-term procurement contracts to help new entrants
diminish risk and orient toward longer-term thinking.
• Look beyond Li-ion for competitive grid storage options (e.g., zinc and
flow batteries).
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 57
Appendix A EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
6
Appendix A EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
METHODOLOGY
The first phase of this study assessed the advanced battery technology
landscape and developed plausible scenarios for these batteries’ cost and
performance based on both published and unpublished expert knowledge of
the state of the art for emerging technology solutions. This section discusses
each of three main work streams in this first phase: 1) Preliminary Technology
Selection; 2) Expert Interviews and Site Visits; and 3) Scenario Development.
1. Preliminary Technology Selection
Electrochemical Focus
Energy storage technology innovation is evolving rapidly. Research labs,
start-ups, battery manufacturers, and others are working on multiple battery
and storage technologies at various stages of research, development, and
commercialization. These technologies employ multiple means to store
energy, including electrochemical, mechanical, thermal, and chemical
energy, each of which could play a critical role in accelerating energy
transitions toward a clean energy future.
Although exciting progress has been made across all forms of energy
storage, this research focuses on electrochemical energy storage
technologies. The pace of innovation in electrochemical battery
technology is accelerating as researchers pursue higher-performing and
less expensive solutions to meet growing market demand. This increasing
demand stems largely from the modularity and diverse applicability of lead-
acid and Li-ion batteries, which have benefited greatly from economies
of scale that have driven prices down close to their theoretical minimum
values. The ability to employ these batteries across multiple, scalable
use cases in both stationary and mobile applications provides a unique
advantage against other—usually stationary—energy storage technologies.
Several such non-electrochemical energy storage technologies and
products that claim significantly lower cost and improved performance
have recently emerged. Some of these technologies are likely to play
a critical role in advancing energy transitions, particularly in stationary
storage applications—behind and in front of the meter. Yet, most of
these technologies are still in early stages of their development and few
examples are available to estimate future prices for these technologies.
Regardless of this report’s primary focus, however, many of its findings—
particularly as they relate to regulatory and policy implications—apply to
multiple storage technologies, electrochemical or otherwise.
Technology Assessment Criteria
For the purpose of this study, the authors applied four main criteria during
an initial literature review to arrive at a shortlist of battery technologies for
detailed assessment. These criteria include:
• Expected Performance Improvement: A selected technology must
be capable of achieving better performance than current Li-ion
batteries against one or more metrics, including improved safety,
energy density, specific energy, duration, or charge rate. Battery cells
should demonstrate energy density of greater than 300 Wh/kg and
specific energy greater than 600 Wh/l, provide more than six hours
of continuous energy output, or show a significant increase in safety
or charge/discharge rates. Significantly improved performance will be
critical for gaining a foothold in competitive markets.
• Expected Cost Reductions: A technology must be capable of
surpassing cost estimates for Li-ion technologies based on its
underlying materials costs. New chemistries and designs have
transformational cost-reduction potential over current Li-ion, for
example due to use of cheaper materials or new and improved
manufacturing processes.
• Expected Time to Market: A technology should be at a stage of
research and development such that it can be piloted in a specific use
case by 2030. Multiple technologies are in various stages of R&D; this
study required that they be sufficiently developed to forecast their
commercialization pathways and hypothesized first-markets with a
reasonable degree of confidence.
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 59
• Modularity and Scalability: Modular designs for energy storage enable
lower costs (as less customization is needed), augmentation of energy
and capacity, flexibility in design of storage systems, and exclusion
of faulty cells. Scalability arises from applicability across multiple use
cases and replicable designs that can be readily mass-produced,
thereby driving economies of scale.

2. Secondary Research and Expert Interviews
Following this initial down selection, the authors completed additional
secondary research (existing reports and scientific articles) as well as a set
of expert interviews and site visits with emerging technology companies
in the battery space and other key industry stakeholders. Interviews were
conducted with the following individuals and organizations:
• ZAF
• Nant Energy
• EnZinc
• Form Energy
• Ambri
• Malta
• Solid Energy
• Solid Power
• Ionic
• Vionx
• Primus
• ESS
• Sion Power
• Ampaire
• Polyplus
• Pellion
• Sila Nanotechnologies
• Zap Go
• Natron
• General Motors
• Ford
• Dr. Shao Horn (Massachusetts
Institute of Technology)
• Dr. Gerd Ceder (Lawrence Berkeley
National Lab)
• Todd Stribley (US Department of
Energy)
• Dr. Paul Albertus (University of
Maryland)
• Dr. Brad Ullrick (Argonne National
Lab, US Department of Energy)
• Dr. Venkat Viswanathan (Carnegie
Mellon University)
• Jay Goldin (Munich Re)
• Dr. Scott Litzelman (ARPA-E, U.S.
Department of Energy)
• Engie
• Electric Power Research Institute
(EPRI)
3. Scenario Development
The authors used findings from the primary and secondary research to
develop scenarios describing potential price points and performance
metrics for new battery technologies relative to baseline forecasts for
existing technologies. These scenarios are not meant to be predictions, per
se, but rigorously informed technological assumptions that warrant careful
consideration by regulators, policymakers, and industry stakeholders. The
study also assessed the expected timing for market-entry and production
scaling of each breakthrough battery technology and evaluated its potential
competitive advantage relative to Li-ion batteries. The authors used this
analysis to map each emerging battery technology to specific end uses
based on its potential cost and relevant performance characteristics (e.g.,
cycle life, specific energy, energy density, and safety).
While lithium-ion batteries currently dominate the market, these new
chemistries and technologies could dramatically shift cost and performance
thresholds, with far-reaching implications. The expected commercialization
pathways for these technologies vary drastically: some advances depend on a
few technological improvement iterations at the lab-scale, while others require
public- and private-sector support to emerge from the “innovation valley of
death” and reach manufacturing readiness levels where economies of scale
savings can materialize. This is why careful assessment of time-to-market
and potential scaling challenges is critically important to understanding the
implications for national and global energy markets and strategies.
60 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
APPENDIX A: EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY FINDINGS BY TECHNOLOGY
For each technology assessed, the following pages provide a high-
level summary of the technology’s key performance characteristics,
projected cost and performance improvement metrics, and potential
commercialization pathways.
Advanced Li-ion
Li-ion technology may diversify further, albeit along pathways that are
compatible with existing manufacturing processes. Advances in Li-ion could
create a more energy-dense battery that is less sensitive to supply chain
constraints. Advanced Li-ion batteries may help battery costs decrease by
a factor of three.
Battery Characteristics
Lithium-ion batteries have come down in price significantly. Innovations
will improve performance incrementally, but with reduced cycle life in the
next decade.
Key Improvement Pathways
• Low/No-Cobalt Cathode: Low-cobalt NMC and cost and performance
improvements in other Li-ion chemistries, like LMO, LFP, or LTO
• Silicon Anode: Replacing graphite with silicon anode for higher energy
density

Impact on Other Performance Characteristics
• Advanced Li-ion battery chemistries could double the specific
energy (between 250 and 450 Wh/kg) and improve cost sensitivity
to cobalt supplies.
• Reaching a cycle life beyond 1,500 cycles is a primary goal for
advanced Li-ion in the coming decade, as is improving safety for new
chemistries.
BREAKTHROUGH BATTERIES: POWERING THE ERA OF CLEAN ELECTRIFICATION | 61
APPENDIX A: EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
EXHIBIT A1
Relative Performance Attributes for Advanced Li-ion
Advanced Li-ion
Safety
Cost
Energy Density
Specific Energy
Cycle Life
Current Advanced Li-ion
Future Advanced Li-ion
EXHIBIT A2
Advanced Li-ion Battery Price Scenarios
Potential Commercialization Pathways
62 | ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE
APPENDIX A: EMERGING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT & SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Market Entry:
Low barrier to entry allows for early-
stage prototyping
Market Growth:
High willingness to pay enables
iterative product improvement cycles
Mass-Market Capture:
Mature products; investments in
scaling and customer acquisition
Potential Market Pathway
Low-cobalt battery adoption for
passenger EVs
Consumer electronics scale
manufacturing of more energy-dense
Li-ion batteries
Economies of scale for more energy
dense batteries will enable long-
range and larger EVs
Details
• Mobility demand will drive low-cobalt
technology adoption
• Meeting demand for battery
production at low prices will
drive integration of low-cobalt
technologies
• Companies like Tesla are already
incorporating low-cobalt chemistries
into production lines
• Consumer electronics, which need
to pack more energy in less space,
will provide first markets for silicon
anodes
• Technology and scaling
improvements from drones and
consumer electronics could enable
longer-range mobility applications
with silicon and low-cobalt
chemistries
• Higher energy density is critical for
electrifying more energy- and power-
intensive mobility applications
Required Improvements
Meeting safety requirements with low-
cobalt cathodes
Limit volumetric expansion (silicon)
Safety and cycle-life improvements
EXHIBIT A3
Potential Commercialization Pathways for Advanced Li-ion Batteries