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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
O
ctober 2016
Contents
1. Highlights
2. Tactical Allocation
3. Global Economic Outlook
4. Global Equity
5. Global Fixed Income
6. Non-Traditional Strategy
Performance Summary
Publication Details
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
2
Highlights
Markets have proved fiercely resilient in the first nine months of the year,
despite various storm clouds seemingly swirling by the day. As we enter
the final quarter, the US election will be front and center, as will the
direction of global central bank policy; this will exacerbate market
swings and we expect to see at least one market hiccup before year end.
However, global recession risk appears low and the typical harbingers of
the end of a bull market are largely absent. Global yields are recovering
post-Brexit but we expect them to remain Lower for Longer.
Economy
The usual summer doldrums did little to improve the prospects of global
economic growth, which remain underwhelming and below potential.
While we maintain that a global recession does not appear to be in the
cards, the lack of obvious growth catalysts persists globally. Moreover, the
complexities of politics and global central bank policy are at a crossroads.
Equity
Despite the ongoing carousel of concerns, global equity markets have
continued to move higher. As we enter the final quarter of the year,
central bank policy action, US elections, and Italy’s referendum will
come into focus. These events will likely lead to increased price
fluctuations and at least one market setback. Still, the underlying
market trends remain positive, global recession risks remain low, and the
fourth quarter historically has tended to be one of the strongest periods
of the year. Thus, the bull market, albeit aged and less powerful,
remains intact.
Fixed Income
Central bank policies remain front and center in driving rates but with
limits to, and shrinking effectiveness of monetary policy, a shift to fiscal
stimulus appears on the horizon. We advise positioning bond allocations
at the low end of investment guideline ranges and focus on high quality,
including government bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and investment-
grade corporate and municipal bonds. We remain cautious on the non-
investment grade portion of the credit markets and continue to avoid
non-US fixed income.
Non-Traditional
Our favored strategies are diversified hedge funds, market neutral hedged
equity and managed futures in an environment where we believe the future
upside in stocks and bonds has moderated. Therefore, we emphasize
strategies less dependent on the direction of traditional markets.
Third Quarter Recap
US economic trends remained
sluggish and on an uneven path.
The Federal Reserve stayed put at
its September meeting, though
made clear a rate increase was
likely before year end. Several
other central banks cut rates in
September, including Russia,
Turkey and Indonesia. The Bank of
Japan decided to change tact,
choosing to control the yield curve
rather than targeting asset
purchases. Meanwhile, the Bank of
England and the European Central
Bank signaled their willingness to
do more to support markets.
Despite some bumps, stocks closed
out a strong third quarter with a
quiet September. Emerging
markets remained on top during
September, surging for the quarter
and extending the year-to-date
lead. Non-US developed stocks also
had a solid quarter, as core
European stocks helped drive
performance. Flattish returns put
the US behind for September and
the quarter, but in the middle of
the pack for the year.
The trend of the past few months—
underperformance by the quality
bond sectors—continued in the
third quarter. US core bonds were
flat for the month and rose
modestly for the third quarter, but
maintain solid gains for 2016.
Longer-dated bonds across the
quality spectrum outperformed
during the quarter as the yield
curve continued to flatten.
Commodities rose during
September, but fell for the third
quarter, though are still holding
onto solid year-to-date returns.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
Tactical Allocation
= No allocation = Current allocation = Opportunistic allocation
US Large Cap
US Small & Mid Cap
Non-US Developed Markets
Emerging Markets (EM)
Non-US Dev. Markets Small Cap
Real Estate Securities
Natural Resources
Master Limited Partnerships
US Government
US Mortgage-Backed Securities
US Investment Grade Corporate
Municipal
US High Yield
US Leveraged Loans
US Preferred Securities
US Convertible
Non-US Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Alternative Strategies
Real Assets
Fixed income
Non-traditional
Balanced Portfolio relative to
policy benchmark
50% MSCI All Country World Index / 50%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index or
Barclays 1-15 Year Municipal Index
O
verw
eight
Significant overw
eight
O
pportunistic allocation
Portfolio risk
Equity
N
o allocation
Significant underw
eight
U
nderw
eight
Slight underw
eight
N
eutral
Slight overw
eight
Neutral = within 10% of benchmark allocation
Slight Over/Underweight = less than 20% deviation from benchmark
Over/Underweight = between 20% and 50% deviation from benchmark
Significantly Over/Underweight = 50% and over deviation from benchmark
Opportunistic allocations are out-of-benchmark and are made within a range of 0-20
Portfolio Positioning
Neutral risk posture given
balance of factors: stable US
economy, global monetary
stimulus and limited attractive
alternatives vs. mature cycle,
downside global economic risks
and richer equity valuations.
Equity
We continue to advocate a US
equity bias within a global
equity framework, advise
maintaining some exposure to
non-US markets as valuations
suggest a great deal of bad news
is already priced in and recently
removed our tactical Emerging
Markets underweight.
Fixed income
Low interest rates remain a
headwind for bond returns, but
high-quality bonds play an
important role as a portfolio
stabilizer and tend to
outperform during periods of
market turmoil.
Non-traditional
We expect alternative strategies
to help balance equity risk and
provide a source of differentiated
return, especially as stock
market opportunities moderate
and bond yields remain low. We
continue to avoid commodities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
4
Figure 1: US Second-Quarter GDP, Contributions
to Percent Change
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-0.30
0.18
-1.16
-0.31
0.12
2.88
1.4
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Total GDP
Consumer Spending
Business Spending
Residential Building
Business Inventories
Net Exports
Government
Global Economic Outlook
The usual summer doldrums did little to improve the prospects of global economic growth,
which remain underwhelming and below potential. In fact, some data wobbled enough in the
early summer months to spark some recession chatter that quickly dissipated in subsequent
months. While we maintain that a global recession does not appear to be in the cards, the
lack of obvious growth catalysts persists globally. Moreover, the complexities of politics and
global central bank policy remain at a crossroads.
US Economic Growth Remains Sluggish
and on an Uneven Path
Growth remains sluggish and on an uneven path.
Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at
a 1.4% annualized pace (Figure 1), revised up from
the prior release of 1.1%.
The biggest moves compared to the prior release
were business spending, business inventories, and net
exports. Business inventories have contracted for five
consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 1956.
Among the bright spots, consumer spending remained
on a roughly 3% growth trend. However, government
flipped back to negative after five consecutive
quarters of growth. Much of the weakness was
concentrated on the state & local levels.
Looking ahead, while we anticipate that GDP will
accelerate somewhat, it now appears that the second
half will not deliver the growth we and many others
originally expected. Thus, as in the three previous
years, 2016 will probably fall short, yet it will be
enviably better than for most of our developed peers.
Meanwhile, the employment situation has improved
some since the sluggish summer months. From July
through September, monthly job gains have averaged
192,000 (Figure 2). Still, payrolls gained a monthly
average of 178,000 this year, following an average
229,000 per month in 2015. Interestingly, average
hourly earnings have risen by 2.6%, yet with modestly
rising wages inflation pressures have remained muted.
Likewise, several manufacturing gauges, which had
softened during the summer, appeared to recover. In
sum, the US economy continues to muddle through.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
5
Global Monetary Policy:
Still the Only Game in Town
We view fears of an end to the easy global monetary
policy conditions as exaggerated. As evident by the
various moves and non-moves in September, global
central bankers are clearly committed to doing
whatever it takes.
In the US, we continue to expect a gradual tightening
cycle given weak global conditions and mixed
domestic data. Moreover, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ)
actions affirm that authorities deem additional
stimulus tools as critical in a bid to strengthen the
effectiveness of its monetary easing program in the
battle against deflation. Moreover, the lack of
progress towards the European Central Bank’s (ECB)
inflation target suggests that an extension of the
bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program by year end
is increasingly probable, while the Bank of England
(BoE) stands ready to provide additional stimulus
should economic trends deteriorate.
Importantly, though, we believe that global monetary
policy needs to hand off to fiscal changes. As we
noted in August (Global Perspective: Revving Up the
Fiscal Engines 8/8/2016), targeted and sizeable fiscal
stimulus would help keep global recessionary
pressures under control, but structural constraints—
most notably debt pressures and political
inflexibility—will limit the scope and effectiveness of
this expected fiscal push. The realities of the
projected fiscal stimulus are that political willingness
is lacking and the impact is weak as ultimately the
money spent on infrastructure development
programs, social endeavors and outright cash
handouts will have to be borrowed, taxed or printed,
thus bearing only meager and short-term stimulus
consequences, and making monetary policy still
critical and relevant.
Political Pressures Manageable
While we expect the market to continue to focus on
monetary policy, deepening global political
uncertainties are serving as an underlying nuisance on
investor sentiment and market behavior.
Europe’s economy continues to muddle along and
political risks remain high. Italy will vote on an
important constitutional referendum in December,
Germany and France are set to hold general elections
in 2017, and British Prime Minister Theresa May has
suggested she will push ahead with triggering the
formal Brexit process early next year.
With the electoral uncertainty in the US, the
deepening political bifurcations across the Eurozone,
the long-term challenges posed by Brexit and even
the sporadic pockets of unrest across the emerging
markets universe, we sense global political trends will
persist as an irritant to the stability of the global
economy and the international financial markets.
As we enter the last quarter of the year, we believe
markets are becoming more accustomed to the
realities of a lower global growth trajectory and more
limited policy strength. Uncertainty surrounding
global monetary policy as well as an increasingly-
combative political backdrop remains. Still, we
believe rising political pressures are broadly
manageable, and underscore the structural
underpinnings of an increasingly interdependent
global economy.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2015
2016
In
th
ou
sa
nd
s
Figure 2: Monthly Job Change
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
6
Global Equity
Despite the ongoing carousel of concerns, global equity markets have continued to move
higher. As we enter the final quarter of the year, central bank policy action, US elections, and
Italy’s referendum will come into focus. These events will likely lead to increased price
fluctuations, and we expect to see at least one market hiccup before year end. Still, the
underlying market trends remain positive, global recession risks remain low, and the fourth
quarter historically has tended to be one of the strongest periods of the year. Thus, the bull
market, albeit aged and less powerful, remains intact.
Markets Are Proving Resilient
If we told you at the beginning of 2016 that the global
equity market would start January with double-digit
declines, the United Kingdom would vote to leave the
European Union, that US economic growth would
average just 1.1% during the first half, and that the
yield on the 10-year US Treasury would drop to a
record low on the back of safe-haven buying and
sluggish growth—most investors would probably ask
how much stocks would be down. Instead, through
the first nine-months of 2016, global equity markets
are up a healthy clip, led by double-digit gains in
emerging markets. Our view is that a very
accommodative global monetary policy, a stable
global economy, and a dearth of attractive
investment options have supported stocks. In the
fourth quarter, improved earnings trends and a slight
tick up in global growth trends should allow stocks to
continue to grind higher, but not without fits and
starts along the way.
Regional Outlook
United States
We continue to retain a US bias given its sturdier
economic and earnings trends as well as its defensive
characteristics. Moreover, US stocks rose to a record
level in the third quarter. Historically, the S&P 500’s
performance after making a new high for the first
time in a year has been favorable, with stocks rising
12 months later 94% of the time with an average 16%
return. Still given high absolute valuations, it will be
important to see earnings improve, which is our
expectation. One of the main reasons the US market
had largely traded sideways until its recent breakout
is forward earnings trends had also treaded water.
Importantly, forward US earnings trends recently rose
to a new high (Figure 3) as the outlook for energy
sector profits are rebounding and the US dollar is now
less of a headwind for multinational companies.
Figure 3:
US Stocks & Earnings Estimates Both at New Highs
Data source: Factset;
Earnings are 12-month forward earnings estimates
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
S&P 500 vs. Earnings
S&P 500 (L)
Earnings Estimate
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
7
Beyond earnings, two main known issues investors will
contend with is the November US Presidential
election and the growing probability of a Fed rate
hike before year end. In regard to the election, the
market has tended to do better on a short-term basis
if the incumbent party stays in office given this is
largely seen as the status quo. On the other hand, a
change of leadership tends to bring with it heightened
uncertainty, and often a short-term market setback.
However, we would urge investors not to make any
drastic portfolio changes due to the election alone.
Our works suggests where we are in the economic
cycle, as well as other fundamental factors, such as
valuations and earnings are overwhelmingly more
important (see Market Perspective: Portfolios &
Politics Don’t Mix, 8/4/16). Moreover, American
companies are very dynamic, and once business owners
know the rules of the game, they will adjust. Indeed,
corporations are making record profits today, despite
a sluggish economic recovery and increased regulation.
Turning to the Fed, as long as economic data stays on
the current trajectory, a rate hike is likely by year
end. Indeed, the market is currently pricing in a 70%
chance of a Fed increase by December. Consequently,
we expect to see more of a sector rotation as a result
of such a hike as opposed to a deep market pullback,
given how well this potential rate increase has been
telegraphed. From a sector perspective, higher rates
should be helpful for financials – and we continue to
favor regional banks given the cheap valuations and
positive sensitivity to yields. Technology is another
area that we see as market leadership given the
sector has a combination of defensive and cyclical
characteristics, positive earnings, large cash balances,
reasonable valuations, and positive price trends.
Non-US Developed Markets:
De-emphasize
We advise maintaining some exposure to non-US
developed markets, but remain less sanguine about
the prospects relative to the US and Emerging Markets
(EM). Europe’s earning trends, while stable, are less
strong than other regions. That said, we have been
impressed by the resiliency of European indices given
recent pressures on the banking system. Moreover,
the UK’s equity market has done particularly well,
partly as a result of the weaker British pound
improving the competitiveness of exporters. The best
thing going for Europe is that expectations appear
low - as such a little good news could go a long way.
Likewise, Japan’s economy continues to be
challenged, but its equity market now trades at a
significant discount to global equity, while monetary
policy remains supportive. Stability in earnings trends
is something we are watching and could move us to a
more bullish view.
Emerging Markets
We are removing our tactical underweight of
emerging markets (EM) relative to our global equity
universe after seeing our thesis largely play out. For
several years, we have advocated de-emphasizing
emerging markets due to a sluggish economic growth
outlook, weak earnings trends, falling commodity
prices, a strong dollar, concerns around the Federal
Reserve’s transition, and the need for structural
changes. We are now seeing improvement in many of
these factors, which supports a weighting closer to
EM’s allocation in the global equity market. Three
main points support a higher weighting.
First, EM now ranks ahead of US and non-US developed
markets on our composite scores, which include
valuations, price momentum, and earnings, the latter
of which should evidence steady support amid
improving growth trends and stable exchange rates.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
8
Next, EM still have catch up potential. Indeed,
despite improved performance this year, EM has
substantially trailed global equity over the past
several years (Figure 4). Moreover, since peaking in
2011, EM has underperformed US markets on a total
return basis by about 90% and trailed global equity
by nearly 50%.
Finally, an incrementally more positive view of this
asset class is the cyclical EM growth slowdown of
recent years is being gradually reversed as more
competitive exchange rates, supportive fiscal and
monetary conditions, targeted structural reform
efforts, as well as a less-strong US dollar, a less
aggressive Fed and low interest rates are aiding the
Emerging Markets growth equation. Importantly, EM
equity tends to outperform when the EM economic
growth gap widens relative to developed equity
markets (DM; Figure 5), which is happening for the
first time since 2012. In a Lower-for-Longer world,
EM’s growth premium appears attractive.
Figure 4: EM Performance Cycle Turning
Data source: MSCI; returns shown in USD on a net basis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
Emerging Markets Relative to Global
Equity
EM
underperforming
EM
outperforming
Figure 5: EM Equity Tends to Outperform When the
EM Economic Growth Gap Widens Relative to DM
Data source: Haver
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2009 2011 2013 2016
Relative Economic Growth and Equity
Performance
GDP Spread: EM - DM (Left)
EM performance relative to DM
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
9
Global Fixed Income
Central bank policies remain front and center in driving rates but with limits to, and shrinking
effectiveness of monetary policy, a shift to fiscal stimulus appears on the horizon. We advise
positioning bond allocations at the low end of investment guideline ranges and focus on high
quality, including government bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and investment-grade
corporate and municipal bonds. We remain cautious on the non-investment grade portion of
the credit markets and continue to avoid non-US fixed income.
Negative- and Low-Interest Rate
Policies at the Limit
We expect yields to rise modestly amid global central
bank policies’ reduced effectiveness, a shift to fiscal
stimulus, and the Fed gradually raising rates.
That said, global monetary policy is still very loose,
and while the Fed is expected to raise rates once this
year, it has lowered its growth forecast and indicated
an even more gradual pace for interest rate increases
going forward. Furthermore, global demand for yield
continues to provide support for rates.
Central bank policies remain front and center in
driving rates. Interest in negative interest rate
policies (NIRP) implemented by major central banks
such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank
of Japan (BoJ) appears to have waned over the last
quarter as monetary policy is losing effectiveness.
Further, there is concern over the impact of negative-
to low-interest rates on banks and other financial
institutions as well as pension funds. This policy hurts
banks’ profitability and ability to lend.
Recent central bank policy actions suggest a shift.
The BoJ announced a move to target the yield curve
rather than asset purchases; further downside for its
key benchmark rate (currently at -0.1%) is likely
limited. The ECB disappointed in September by not
announcing additional policy measures, and the Fed
signaled that a rate hike is likely by December.
With limits to monetary policy, a shift to fiscal
stimulus appears on the horizon, as evidenced by
Japan’s fiscal stimulus package, as policy makers in
the UK, Eurozone and the US look for economic
solutions. However, the boost to global growth is
expected to be modest― high levels of debt likely
constrain the scope and depth of any projected global
fiscal stimulus push.
All in all, these developments should provide a floor
for interest rates and some upward pressure on yields
(Figure 6). Therefore, while interest rates should
move higher over the near term, we believe they will
remain in a lower range.
Figure 6: Bond Yields are Off the Lows during the
Brexit Turmoil
Data Source: Factset
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
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Se
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Japanese 10-Yr Govt Bond Yield (lhs)
German 10-Yr Govt Bond Yield (lhs)
US 10-Yr Treasury Yield (rhs)
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
10
Prefer High Quality Bonds
Given this backdrop and our neutral portfolio stance,
we advise positioning bond allocations at the low end
of investment guideline ranges and focusing on high
quality, including government bonds, mortgage-
backed securities (MBS), and investment-grade
corporate and municipal bonds. With bond allocations
at the low end of ranges, we look to fixed income as
a portfolio diversifier and stabilizer during risk-off
periods such as at the beginning of 2016 and again
during the Brexit turmoil in June.
In this environment, where growth is hard to come
by, financial markets are likely to overreact, and
there are plenty of upcoming events expected to
create choppiness such as the US elections, the
constitutional referendum in Italy and the formal
commencement of Brexit in early 2017.
Mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds
provide a hedge in the event that rates move higher
than expected; MBS have lower interest-rate
sensitivity than governments and corporate bond
spreads would likely tighten if rates increased
because of an improving economy (Figure 7).
Non-Investment Grade & Municipals
We remain cautious on the non-investment grade
portion of the credit markets. High yield corporate
bonds have seen spreads narrow back to levels not
seen since mid-2015, and valuations have become
expensive as investors have sought higher yielding
securities. While the stabilization in oil prices and
easy monetary policies have provided support, we
believe that the best days of the credit cycle are
behind us. Banks have been tightening credit standards
over the last year, and leverage has been on the rise.
While municipal bonds have seen respectable
performance this year, they have underperformed the
taxable bond space; valuations were higher coming
into 2016, and supply has been stronger than
expected. Still, demand has stayed steady, and
valuations are more reasonable at this time. Therefore,
municipal bonds are still an attractive option for tax-
sensitive investors.
Non-US Fixed Income
In the non-US bond space, Japanese interest rates
moved up with the change in the BoJ’s policy
offsetting gains in Eurozone and UK sovereign bonds
while currency was additive to total returns. Yields
are at very low levels in this space, and these bonds
have higher sensitivity to changes in interest rates.
Emerging markets debt has performed well this year
with a weaker US dollar and stronger commodity
prices. Still, while yields are more attractive in this
space, we believe that the opportunities in
commodities are limited and credit quality has
declined. Therefore, we continue to stay on the
sidelines in favor of high quality US bonds.
Figure 7: MBS Tend to Outperform Government
Bonds in Periods of Rising Rates
Data Source: Factset
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
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MBS indexed relative to Government Bonds (lhs)
10-Year Treasury Yield (rhs)
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
11
Non-Traditional Strategy
Our favored strategies are diversified hedge funds, market neutral hedged equity and
managed futures in an environment where we believe the future upside in stocks and bonds
has moderated. Therefore, we emphasize strategies less dependent on the direction of
traditional markets.
Less Directional Strategies Offer
Ballast in Diversified Portfolios
Broad-based hedge funds eked out gains for the
seventh consecutive month as market choppiness
moved higher by quarter end. Performance, however,
was mixed across strategies with equity and credit-
based hedge funds posting gains in the quarter while
trend reversals in fixed income, the US dollar and
commodities pressured managed futures (Figure 8).
Nonetheless, we believe that in an environment with
moderating fixed income and equity returns, non-
traditional strategies should play an increasingly
important role in diversified portfolios. They provide a
partial hedge against market downturns, less correlated
sources of returns and capital appreciation
opportunities with minimal reliance on the direction of
the stock market.
Non-Traditional Anchor Allocation
We recommend allocations to diversified hedge fund
managers as an anchor to the non-traditional
allocation in balanced portfolios as they have been
shown to improve diversification, reduce volatility and
smooth portfolio returns over time.
Hedged Equity and Managed Futures
Within hedged equity strategies, we prefer exposure
to market neutral. Declining intra-stock correlations
are generally favorable for hedged equity returns.
However, we are beginning to see correlations among
stocks rise, which creates challenges for directionally-
positioned hedged equity managers. We, thus, prefer
managers with low net market exposure, which should
hold up better during periods of market stress.
We also expect managed futures strategies to do well
as the market cycle matures. These strategies capture
opportunities across other areas of the global markets,
like commodities, currencies and interest rates in a bi-
directional fashion, meaning they have the ability to
generate returns in bull and bear markets.
Hedge funds may involve a high degree of risk, often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of
investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures
and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds often charge high fees which may
offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager.
Managed Futures and commodity investing involve a high degree of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors could lose a substantial amount of
money in a very short period of time. The amount you may lose is potentially unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally deposit with your broker.
This is because trading security futures is highly leveraged, with a relatively small amount of money controlling assets having a much greater value. Investors
who are uncomfortable with this level of risk should not trade managed futures or commodities.
Figure 8: HFRX Hedge Fund Returns
Data Source: Factset
2.2%
0.9%
3.4%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-1.2%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Global
Hedge Fund
Absolute
Return
Equity Hedge Macro/CTA
QTD
YTD
0.7%
1.3%
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
12
Performance Summary
Rates (%)
9/30/16
6/30/16
3/31/16
12/31/15
9/30/15
U.S. Fed Funds Target
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
European Central Bank Rate
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.05
Bank of England Rate
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
Bank of Japan Rate
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
0.10
USA LIBOR - 3 Month
0.85
0.85
0.65
0.63
0.61
TED Spread (bps) - 3 Month
0.58
0.58
0.40
0.42
0.44
2 Yr U.S. Treasury
0.76
0.76
0.58
0.72
1.06
10 Yr U.S. Treasury
1.60
1.60
1.47
1.77
2.27
10-2 yr slope
0.83
0.83
0.89
1.05
1.21
Barclays Municipal Bond Blend 1-15 Year (YTW)
1.55
1.55
1.36
1.60
1.78
BofAML High Yield Master (YTW)
6.25
6.25
7.36
8.39
8.77
BofAML Corporate Master (YTW)
2.85
2.85
2.90
3.21
3.69
Currencies
9/30/16
6/30/16
3/31/16
12/31/15
9/30/15
Euro ($/€)
1.12
1.11
1.14
1.09
1.12
Yen (¥/$)
101.27
102.59
112.40
120.30
119.77
GBP ($/£)
1.30
1.34
1.44
1.47
1.51
Commodities
9/30/16
6/30/16
3/31/16
12/31/15
9/30/15
Light Crude Oil ($/barrel)
48.24
48.33
38.34
37.04
45.09
Gold ($/ozt)
1,317.10
1,320.60
1,235.60
1,060.20
1,115.20
CBOE Volatility Index
9/30/16
6/30/16
3/31/16
12/31/15
9/30/15
CBOE VIX
13.29
15.63
13.95
18.21
24.50
Data source: FactSet
Major Market Returns through September 2016
Important Disclosures: All information is as of title date unless otherwise noted. This document was prepared for clients of SunTrust Bank for informational purposes only. This material may not be suitable for all investors and may
not be redistributed in whole or part. Neither SunTrust Bank, nor any affiliates make any representation or warranties as to the accuracy or merit of this analysis for individual use. Information contained herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed. Comments and general market related projections are based on information available at the time of writing and believed to be accurate; are for informational purposes
only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm and may not be relied upon for future investing. The views expressed may change at any time. The information provided in this
report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any financial instrument, product or service sponsored or provided by SunTrust Bank or its affiliates or agents. Investors are advised to consult with their
investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions. Past returns are not indicative of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index.
5.3
3.9
6.4
9.0
0.5
5.5
-0.2
0.6
-3.9
2.2
6.6
7.8
1.7
16.0
5.8
15.3
3.2
14.2
8.9
1.3
12.0
15.4
6.5
16.8
5.2
12.8
4.3
12.6
-2.6
0.7
5.2
11.2
0.5
-0.6
4.0
5.3
4.2
1.2
-12.3
-0.2
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
G
lo
ba
l S
to
ck
s
U
S
La
rg
e
Ca
p
N
on
-U
S
D
ev
el
op
ed
Em
er
gi
ng
M
ar
ke
ts
U
S
Co
re
B
on
ds
H
ig
h
Yi
el
d
Bo
nd
s
M
un
ic
ip
al
B
on
ds
N
on
-U
S
Bo
nd
s
Co
m
m
od
it
ie
s
G
lo
ba
l H
ed
ge
F
un
ds
QTD
YTD
1 Yr
3 Yr
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
13
Publication Details
Authors
Jennifer Capouya, CFA, CFP®, CTFA, AIF
Deputy Chief Investment Officer
Director of Portfolio & Market Strategy
SunTrust Bank & GenSpring Family Offices
Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT
Chief Market Strategist, SunTrust Bank
Michael Skordeles, AIF
Senior Market Strategist, SunTrust Bank
Shelly Simpson, CFA, CAIA
Senior Portfolio Strategist, SunTrust Bank
Sabrina Bowens-Richard, CFA, CAIA
Senior Portfolio Strategist, SunTrust Bank
Aryam Vázquez
Senior Global Macro Strategist,
SunTrust Bank & GenSpring Family Offices
Emily Novick, CFA, CFP®
Portfolio Strategist, SunTrust Bank
Contributors
Gregory Miller
Chief Economist, SunTrust Bank
Andrew Richman, CTFA
Director of Fixed Income Strategy
SunTrust Bank & GenSpring Family Offices
Aki Pampush, CFA, CPA
Director of Equity Strategy, SunTrust Bank
Editors
Oliver Merten, CFA, CFP®
Director of Investment Communications
SunTrust Bank & GenSpring Family Offices
Amy Hanson
Investment Communications Associate
SunTrust Bank & GenSpring Family Offices
Portfolio &
M
arket Strategy G
roup
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
14
Important Disclosures
Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor
to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses.
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investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank, SunTrust Delaware Trust Company and SunTrust Banks Trust Company (Cayman) Limited.
Securities, brokerage accounts, insurance (including annuities) and investment advisory products and services are offered by SunTrust Investment Services, Inc.,
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SunTrust Advisory Services LLC, SunTrust Investment Services, Inc., and GenSpring Family Offices, LLC, each of which is registered as an investment adviser with
the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
SunTrust Bank and its affiliates and the directors, officers, employees and agents of SunTrust Bank and its affiliates (collectively, "SunTrust") are not permitted
to give legal or tax advice. Clients of SunTrust should consult with their legal and tax advisors prior to entering into any financial transaction.
Investment and Insurance Products: •Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured •Are not Bank Guaranteed •May Lose Value
The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but SunTrust Investment Services, Inc. (STIS)
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Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. SunTrust Bank and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued
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The information and material presented in this commentary are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives,
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herein may not be suitable for you, and you may want to consult a financial advisor. Nothing in this material constitutes individual investment, legal or tax
advise. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future
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Investors may be prohibited in certain states from purchasing some over-the-counter securities mentioned herein.
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STIS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material.
Asset Allocation does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Fixed Income Securities are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risk, and reinvestment risk. Fixed Income Securities, if held to
maturity, may provide a fixed rate of return and a fixed principal value. Fixed Income Securities prices fluctuate and when redeemed, may be worth more or less
than their original cost.
High Yield Fixed Income Investments, also known as junk bonds, are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default and tend to be more volatile than
investment grade fixed income securities.
International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to US investing. These risks include potential economic uncertainties
of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in emerging market countries, since these countries may have
relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies.
Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price
fluctuations, and illiquidity.
Emerging Markets: Investing in the securities of such companies and countries involves certain considerations not usually associated with investing in developed
countries, including unstable political and economic conditions, adverse geopolitical developments, price volatility, lack of liquidity, and fluctuations in currency
exchange rates.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
15
Asset classes are represented by the following indexes:
MSCI ACWI index (Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to
measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The MSCI ACWI consists of 45 country indices comprising 24 developed and 21
emerging market country indices.
MSCI World captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted
market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EM index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
MSCI EAFE index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding
the US & Canada.
MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US market. With 640 constituents, the index covers
approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.
S&P 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is
a broad based Index.
Russell 1000 index is a measure of the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index and includes
approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
Russell 3000 index measures the performance of the 3000 largest US companies based on total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the
investable US equity market.
Russell Mid Cap index is a measure of the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell Midcap is a subset of the Russell 1000
Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell Midcap
represents approximately 31% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 companies.
Russell 2000 Index is comprised of 2000 smaller company stocks and is generally used as a measure of small-cap stock performance.
FTSE NAREIT US Real Estate Index Series is designed to present investors with a comprehensive family of REIT performance indexes that span the commercial real
estate space across the US economy, offering exposure to all investment and property sectors.
Bloomberg Commodity Index is composed of futures contracts on physical commodities. It currently includes 22 commodity futures in six sectors. The weightings
of the commodities are calculated in accordance with rules that ensure that the relative proportion of each of the underlying individual commodities reflects its
global economic significance and market liquidity.
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is the broadest measure of the taxable U.S. bond market, including most Treasury, agency, corporate, mortgage-backed, asset-
backed, and international dollar-denominated issues, all with investment-grade ratings (rated Baa3 or above by Moody’s) and maturities of one year or more.
Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index measures the
performance of U.S. Dollar denominated U.S. Treasuries, government-related and investment grade U.S. corporate securities that have a remaining maturity of
greater than one year and less than ten years.
Barclays US MBS Fixed Rate Index covers agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie
Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). Pool aggregates must have at least USA 250mn current outstanding, fixed-rate pool aggregates comprise individual TBA
deliverable MBS pools mapped on the basis of agency, program, coupon, and origination year of the pool. Rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) or higher
using the middle rating of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch after dropping the highest and lowest available ratings. When a rating from only two agencies is available, the
lower (“more conservative”) is used. When a rating from only one agency is available, that is used to determine index eligibility. Pool aggregates must have a
weighted average maturity of at least 1 year.
BofA Merrill Lynch Treasury Master is an unmanaged index tracking government securities.
BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. Inflation-Linked Treasury Index: Tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated inflation linked sovereign debt publicly issued by the
U.S. government in its domestic market. Qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining term to final maturity, interest and principal payments tied
to inflation and a minimum amount outstanding of $1 billion. Strips are excluded from the Index; however, original issue zero coupon bonds are included in the
Index and the amounts outstanding of qualifying coupon securities are not reduced by any portions that have been stripped.
Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwether Indices are a series of benchmarks tracking the performance and attributes of six on-the-run U.S. Treasuries that reflect the
most recently issued 3m, 6m, 2y, 3y, 5y, 10y, and 30y securities. The bellwether indices follow Barclays index monthly rebalancing conventions.
Barclays Municipal Bond Blend 1-15 Year (1-17 Y) is an unmanaged index of municipal bonds with a minimum credit rating of at least Baa, issued as part of a deal
of at least $50 million, that have a maturity value of at least $5 million and a maturity range of 12 to 17 years.
BofAML U.S. Corporate Master is an unmanaged index comprised of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt securities publicly issued in the
U.S. domestic market with at least one year remaining term to final maturity.
BofAML US HY Master index is an index that tracks US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.
Citigroup Non-USD WGBI (USD) is an index covering thirteen government-bond markets: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. For inclusion in this index, a market must total at least (U.S.) $20 billion for three consecutive
months.
Citigroup Non-USD WGBI (USD) Hedged is an index where the currency exposure is hedged and covers government-bond markets including the following:
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Please see Important Disclosures for additional information.
SunTrust Investment Insights | October 2016
16
JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite is a comprehensive emerging market debt index that tracks local currency bonds issued by Emerging Market
governments. It includes only those countries that are directly accessible by most of the international investor base and excludes countries with explicit capital
controls, but does not factor in regulatory/tax hurdles in assessing eligibility. The maximum weight to any country in the index is capped at 10%.
HFRX Indices (HFRX) are a series of benchmarks of hedge fund industry performance which are engineered to achieve representative performance of a larger
universe of hedge fund strategies. Hedge Fund Research, Inc. ("HFR, Inc.") employs the HFRX Methodology, a proprietary and highly quantitative process by which
hedge funds are selected as constituents for the HFRX Indices. This methodology includes robust classification, cluster analysis, correlation analysis, advanced
optimization and Monte Carlo simulations. More specifically, the HFRX Methodology defines certain qualitative characteristics, such as: whether the fund is open
to transparent fund investment and the satisfaction of the index manager's due diligence requirements. Production of the HFRX Methodology results in a model
output which selects funds that, when aggregated and weighted, have the highest statistical likelihood of producing a return series that is most representative of
the reference universe of strategies.
The CBOE Volatility Index® is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction
in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. VIX is often referred to as the
"investor fear gauge“.
MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a
component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to
make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication
or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information
assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or
creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality,
accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting
any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without
limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. MSCI All-Country World ex-US Index: is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed
to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets, ex-US equities.
The Alerian MLP Index is the leading gauge of large- and mid-cap energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs). The float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted index,
which includes 50 prominent companies and captures approximately 75% of available market capitalization.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
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CN2016-3267EXP102017