Paris 2015
Getting a global agreement
on climate change
Paris 2015: getting a global agreement on
climate change
A report by Christian Aid, Green Alliance,
Greenpeace, RSPB, and WWF
Lead author: Rebecca Willis
Acknowledgements
With thanks to the following for their assistance in
producing this publication: Alastair Harper,
Matthew Spencer, Frieda Metternich, Karen Crane,
Michael Jacobs, Gareth Morgan, Harry Huyton, Tom Viita,
Ruth Davis, Alison Doig, John Lanchbery, Camilla Born,
Ben Stafford, Rose Dickinson, Barry Johnston,
Penny Evans, Helen Dennis, Murray Birt, Dominic White,
Luke James, Bernadette Fischler, Gwen Harrison,
Elena Perez, Brigitta Huckstein, Tracy Carty, Leo Hickman,
Mohamed Adow, Rachel Garthwaite, Kate Pumphrey and
Sol Oyuela.
Published by Green Alliance
August 2014
ISBN 978-1-909980-18-1
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1
Contents
Summary
2
What needs to be agreed?
4
From Rio to Paris: what has changed since 1992?
8
Prospects for an agreement
11
Why a global agreement is needed
12
2
Summary
At the Paris summit in December 2015, 196 countries will meet to sign a
new climate change agreement. But how likely is it that it will be
meaningful and make a difference to climate action on the ground?
Not only is a deal possible but, with the right political leadership, it can lead to
ambitious outcomes that will have a real impact on tackling climate change.
Countries like the US and China are working to ensure an outcome is likely
in 2015; and the years since the 2009 Copenhagen negotiations have seen
some significant breakthroughs.
The 2009 negotiations were fraught and chaotic, with a last minute
agreement emerging after frantic scenes on the conference floor. Yet
international negotiations remain vital for countries to build on national
approaches, providing reassurance that they are not acting alone, and
making it easier for nations to work together towards a low carbon future.
This is why the 2015 Paris summit is important. To ensure meaningful
action on climate change, the deal must contain the following elements:
• ambitious action before and after 2020
• a strong legal framework and clear rules
• a central role for equity
• a long term approach
• public finance for adaptation and the low carbon transition
• a framework for action on deforestation and land use
• clear links to the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals
A strong deal will make a significant difference to the ability of individual
countries to tackle climate change. It will provide a clear signal to business,
to guide investment toward low carbon outcomes. It will reduce the
competitiveness impacts of national policies, and create a simpler, more
predictable framework for companies operating in different countries.
Vitally, a strong climate deal will help to meet international development
aims, which are at increasing risk from rising global temperatures.
Eliminating poverty, improving health and building security are all
outcomes linked to tackling climate change.
And it will also bring huge benefits to the natural environment by helping
to avoid biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystems upon which
we all depend.
3
So the question now is whether
we will have the courage to
act before it’s too late. And how
we answer will have a profound
impact on the world that we
leave behind not just to you,
but to your children and to your
grandchildren.”
US President Barack Obama,
Georgetown Address, June 20131
4
What needs to be
agreed?
In December 2015, countries will meet in Paris to sign a global agreement
on climate change. But what should be in it? The 2015 agreement will be
different from those that came before. In the early years of climate
negotiations, the focus was on setting ‘top-down’ targets, which drove
national action. Today, the emphasis has shifted. Individual countries are
being asked to come forward with their own ambitions and plans for
carbon reduction. Agreement at the global level is needed to to ensure that
countries’ pledged contributions add up to sufficient global action,
providing financial support for adaptation and the low carbon transition,
while ensuring transparency to enhance co-operation.
A good agreement will provide an enabling framework, allowing
individual countries to do more than they could alone. Agreement is
needed and possible on the following elements of a global deal:
Ambitious action before and after 2020
Countries are aiming to reach agreement in Paris on a deal that will come
into force from 2020. This means ensuring each nation pledges its own
‘nationally determined contribution’ for post-2020 action, no later than
March 2015.
But, at the Durban talks in 2011, countries also agreed to accelerate action
before 2020.2 Limiting climate change in the long term depends on
cumulative emissions so, if less is done now, greater effort will be needed
in the future. Failure to act now will make it harder to limit temperature
rises to less than 2oC, much less 1.5oC, above pre-industrial levels.3
Emissions reduction pledges for the period up to 2020 have been made by
more than 90 countries but, added together, these are, in the words of the
UN, “far from sufficient to close the emissions gap.”4
The agreement should include ambitious national plans for action from
2020 onwards, and a package of pre-2020 action, with more ambitious
national mitigation pledges, better delivery of existing financial
commitments and more action in key sectors, such as energy efficiency,
renewable energy deployment and forest protection.
A strong legal framework and clear rules
To ensure action on the ground, governments and businesses must be
confident that countries will deliver on the promises they make in the
agreement, with processes to account for action and ensure transparency.
The international agreement must have a clear legal basis that works for
different national constitutions. Negotiations are already working towards
finding the right legal design to ensure both certainty and the broadest
participation.
The legal form of the agreement should inspire confidence that
commitments will be delivered in a timely and credible manner by
national governments. This should be supported by a clear, shared
accounting system and robust, transparent monitoring and reporting
requirements.
5
A central role for equity
If the climate challenge is to be met effectively, and the resulting global
agreement is to be supported by the 196 potential country signatories, it
must be seen as fair for all. This means the agreement must recognise both
the different contributions of countries to climate change and the
changing nature of the global economy. It must acknowledge where
nations have more responsibility and where they have more capacity to
tackle climate change.
The agreement must allow for comparisons of national contributions,
using appropriate indicators of national responsibilities and capabilities, to
encourage ambition and ensure that climate action links with strategies for
poverty alleviation and sustainable development.
A long term approach
The agreement reached in Paris should not be seen as static. Instead, it should
establish a framework to build from, with rolling commitments to reduce
emissions and support adaptation. This should be on a five year cycle, with a
ratchet mechanism over time built into the system and a clear, long term goal.
There are two reasons for this. First, carbon targets will need to be revised
in the light of emerging science. Second, as confidence in the agreement
grows, and countries implement low carbon strategies, there will be more
evidence of the social and economic benefits of action and greater
confidence amongst investors; this will lead to a virtuous circle of action,
and the possibility of greater ambition in future international negotiations.
The agreement should include a forward looking regime of five year
commitment periods with a one-way ratchet mechanism to enable
enhanced ambition; it should move towards a goal to phase out pollution
from fossil fuels by 2050 and phase in clean energy technologies.
Public finance for adaptation and the low carbon transition
A global climate agreement is much more likely, and will be much more
effective, if it provides finance to support action on adaptation and
mitigation. Countries have already agreed to scale climate finance up to
$100 billion a year by 2020. They have also established the delivery
mechanism for a significant portion of that funding, in the form of a Green
Climate Fund. Fully capitalised and with strong leadership, the fund could
become a transformational institution, with the ability to influence other
international financial institutions and the wider investment environment.
Moreover, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s finance
discussions are not taking place in isolation, but are part of broader efforts
to reform international financial frameworks to deliver sustainable
development. These include negotiations to deliver enhanced public finance
for development, which will be discussed intensively during 2015, and
efforts to help redirect private capital from high to low carbon investments.
The agreement should include commitments to scaled up public finance,
to support adaptation and mitigation action, aligned with other public
finance for development; and wider efforts should be made to secure
private sector investment in the low carbon economy.
The American economy is
already beginning to feel the
effects of climate change.
These impacts will likely grow
materially over the next five
to 25 years and affect the
future performance of today’s
business and investment
decisions.”
Risky business: the economic risks of
climate change in the US5
6
A framework for action on deforestation and land use
Forest protection and support for sustainable land management will be a
crucial part of a new agreement. The REDD+ programme, agreed in
Warsaw in 2013, sets out guidelines for reducing emissions from
deforestation in developing countries. These cover such issues as
biodiversity, social impacts and governance, and finance for action to meet
these guidelines. This approach can provide the foundation for further
action on stronger ecosystem protection, poverty alleviation in rural
communities, support for sustainable agriculture and better climate
resilience in vulnerable communities.
Any new agreement covering forest protection, land use and agriculture
should be properly financed, have clear rules for emissions accounting
and involve local communities in decision making. It should ensure better
biodiversity, ecosystem protection and restoration, and include support for
sustainable agriculture and increased climate resilience.
Clear links to the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals
Goals for international development are also being discussed in 2014 and
2015, in a separate UN process. The aim is to agree a new set of Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, to replace the Millennium
Development Goals. This timing provides an unprecedented opportunity to
set a clear path for international development for the next generation.
Action on climate change is essential to meeting development aims,
including poverty eradication, health, education, food and energy security.
The agreements on climate change and SDGs should be seen as
complementary, with opportunities for mutual benefit in areas such as low
carbon development, climate adaptation and resilience, and new flows of
finance.6
7
I challenge you to bring to the
Summit bold pledges. Innovate,
scale up, co-operate and deliver
concrete action that will close
the emissions gap and put us on
track for an ambitious legal
agreement.”
UN Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon7
8
From Rio to Paris:
what has changed
since 1992?
It’s over twenty years since the first treaty, signed at the 1992 Rio Earth
Summit, when countries agreed to limit their emissions of greenhouse
gases. The intervening years have seen far reaching changes in the
understanding of, and response to, climate change.
Greater scientific certainty
There has been a steady increase in scientific understanding. The recent
reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that
human induced changes to the climate are already taking place, with
significant effects on earth systems.8
Broader national action
Increasing knowledge of climate change impacts has prompted extensive
responses from governments, business and civil society. Nine out of ten
Europeans, for example, now think that climate change is a serious
problem.9 Many countries have developed comprehensive legislation on
climate. The UK was the first country, with its historic 2008 Climate
Change Act, to set statutory targets for emissions reduction. Mexico now
has a General Law on Climate Change; Nigeria has a National Climate
Change Policy and Response Strategy; and China will shortly consult on a
national climate change law. Altogether, 66 countries, which represent
around 88 per cent of global emissions, now have climate legislation in
place.10
September
2014

UN Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon hosts a
summit for heads of
state and government,
as well as leaders from
business, finance and
civil society, to catalyse
action on climate
change
December
2014

UN climate negotiations:
ministers meet in Lima
to discuss the post-
2020 agreement and
pre-2020 action
Early
2015

Countries submit
proposed plans on
targets and contributions
to the UN by March
2015, to be reviewed in
advance of the Paris
summit
9
Economic investment
Alongside rising concerns, businesses are seeing opportunities too:
markets in low carbon goods and services now amount to £3.4 trillion and
have outperformed the mainstream economy since the onset of the
financial crisis.11 Meanwhile, the cost of renewable energy has fallen
markedly as markets have expanded.12
There is an appetite for action on climate change. But global warming has
not been reduced to safe levels.13 The world is currently on track for
warming of at least 3 to 4oC by 2100,14 which would have far reaching
consequences for food security, fresh water availability, and the frequency
and intensity of storms.15 At this level of climate change, the efficacy of
adaptation strategies would be severely limited.
This is why the Paris summit is important
A strong international agreement will:
• allow countries to push ahead with strategies and policies for carbon
emissions reduction, knowing that others are doing likewise;
• provide a predictable framework for a global low carbon economy;
• allow developing countries to pursue low carbon development strategies
and adapt to the effects of climate change;
• improve international efforts to protect the natural environment.
December
2015

Paris climate summit
2015-2020

International action
continues, including
continuation of the
Kyoto agreement,
ratification of the Paris
agreement and
development of
institutions
2021

Formal date for
implementation of the
Paris agreement
September
2015

UN agreement on
Sustainable
Development Goals
10
We are the first generation to
understand the consequences of
a high carbon economy on the
planet, on future prosperity
and, in particular, on the most
vulnerable around the world.
Let us be the generation that
stands up and takes the
responsibility conveyed by that
knowledge.”
Christiana Figueres, executive
secretary, UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change,
May 201416
11
Prospects for
an agreement
While international climate negotiations are always complex and fraught,
there are strong reasons for optimism about the outcome of the 2015
summit.
The US and China have shifted their positions
The past five years have seen significant shifts in position from the most
influential countries, notably China and the US. Despite a divided
Congress, President Obama has committed to reducing emissions, making
climate change a defining issue of his second term. China has an ambitious
strategy to grow its renewables sector, with tough new laws on air
pollution and strong action on limiting coal consumption. Last year, the
two countries signed an agreement to work together on carbon reduction
in crucial sectors including transport and energy efficiency.
A clear timetable
The agreement reached in Durban in 2011, together with discussions in
Warsaw in 2013, set a clear timetable. This should mean that negotiations
are more ordered and less last minute than the Copenhagen talks. Although
there are a large number of issues to be resolved, the institutional
framework is much more developed than it was in 2009, including a
functioning reporting system and the Green Climate Fund.
The case for action is understood
The benefits of action, and the consequences of inaction, are becoming
ever clearer. Businesses are mobilising to call for a strong agreement, with a
new coalition, representing more than 500 global companies, forming in
June 2014.18 Mounting evidence on the impacts of climate change, which
is increasing the risk of extreme events, from the recent winter flooding in
the UK to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, is underlining the case for
action.
This does not make a strong global agreement automatic or easy. But it
does raise the prospect of serious multilateral co-operation to achieve a
common goal.
Both sides recognize that,
given the latest scientific
understanding of accelerating
climate change and the urgent
need to intensify global
efforts to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, forceful,
nationally appropriate action
by the United States and
China – including large scale
co-operative action – is more
critical than ever.”
Joint US-China Statement on
Climate Change, April 201317

12
Why a global
agreement is
needed
There is clear evidence that global co-operation will help to bolster
individual countries’ efforts on carbon reduction, and increase overall
ambition to tackle climate change. Above all, a global agreement provides
more clarity and certainty, which will improve prospects for the global
economy, for international development and for the natural environment.
The IPCC reports: growing evidence, greater consensus
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Fifth
Assessment in 2014, summarising the work of thousands of scientists
across the world. The message was, in the panel’s own words,
“unequivocal”. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases are now higher than they have been for nearly a million years, long
before human society began. The burning of fossil fuels is the main reason
behind this increase. Without strong action, temperatures are very likely to
exceed the 2oC target that governments have committed to. This will result
in serious consequences including sea level rises, heatwaves, loss of snow
and ice cover, disruptions to agriculture and food production, and greater
extremes of drought and rainfall.
October 2013

The physical science
basis
March 2014

Impacts, adaptation
and vulnerability
April 2014

Mitigation of climate
change
IPCC working groups
In its 2013 report, for the first time the IPCC put a number on the total
amount of carbon that can be emitted, while keeping within the 2oC target.
Keeping within this limit would require the emission of no more than 880
gigatonnes of carbon. This is, in effect, a global carbon budget. Yet, by
2011, 530 gigatonnes, or nearly two thirds of the total budget, had already
been spent. Emissions must peak soon, and then decline steeply, to stay
within the 2oC limit.
Economic prosperity
There is consensus among business leaders that a strong global agreement
will improve economic prosperity in the UK, the EU and elsewhere. Early
action will help to avoid the economic cost of climate impacts, which
could amount to between five and 20 per cent of GDP, depending on the
level of warming.19 There are additional economic benefits in low carbon
investment, but signals need to be clear and consistent.
Spending on low carbon goods and services is strong and growing.20
However, in many parts of the world it remains a small proportion of
overall investment. As the World Economic Forum states, “progress in
green investment continues to be outpaced by investment in fossil fuel
intensive, inefficient infrastructure”.21 While low carbon investment is
encouraged, so too is fossil fuel investment, resulting in conflicting
13
Taking action now will not
only solve the problem of
protecting the planet, but it
will be a tremendous boost
for economies.”
Dr Jim Yong Kim, president,
World Bank, 201422
14
signals to business. By making the wrong types of infrastructure
investments now, we are condemning ourselves to more costly
adjustments later.
International Energy Agency research warns that delayed action would
result in substantial additional costs, as high carbon investments made now
would quickly lose their utility and value.23 In the UK, the Committee on
Climate Change has identified that the UK could save £100 billion from
early action.24
Investment in clean energy and transport systems also brings other
economic benefits. It reduces vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel prices and
improves local air quality which improves quality of life, saves lives and
reduces healthcare spending.25
The best way to remove conflicting messages and set clear goals for
investment would be to secure an agreement at the global level.
A global agreement would allow national governments to introduce
stronger policies to cut emissions, without risking impacts on international
competitiveness. A clear international framework for carbon reduction
would reward low carbon growth, and deter high carbon investment,
wherever companies are located.
Without a climate agreement, the outlook for business and the economic
development of the poorest looks more challenging. Supply chains,
particularly of agricultural products like wheat, rice and maize, will be
affected, with consequent effects on price.27 Disruption from extreme
weather events will result in significant losses. The World Economic
Forum’s report on global risks estimates the total economic losses
from Hurricane Katrina at $125 billion, and from Hurricane Sandy at $70
billion for the states of New York and New Jersey alone.28
International development and climate change
The UK plays a leading role in efforts to support international development
and poverty eradication, linked to the Millennium Development Goals, and
the new Sustainable Development Goals to be agreed through the UN in 2015.
The UK supports developing countries in their efforts to reduce poverty,
improve health outcomes, and promote food security and access to energy.
Action on climate change is essential to meeting all these outcomes. The
Overseas Development Institute (ODI) carried out a thorough review of
the impacts of climate change on different development goals and found
that climate change had an impact on all of the goals, directly or indirectly.
Direct impacts include food security, availability of water, and health
outcomes. These, in turn, affect other development goals, such as gender
equality, education and human rights (see the ODI’s ‘billiard ball’ model
overleaf).
If the working group 2 report
on impacts describes a
potential train wreck and
working group 1 identifies
the driver, the working group
3 report on mitigation
explains how to avoid the
crash. But it also suggests that
the brakes are not working.”
Dr Celine Herweijer, partner,
PwC26
15
The lack of action on climate
change not only risks putting
prosperity out of reach of
millions of people in the
developing world, it threatens
to roll back decades of
sustainable development.”
World Bank, 201229
16
I was very struck by the fact that
the impacts of climate change
are undermining a whole range
of human rights: rights to food,
safe water and health and
education. But it is also
displacing people, which is very
likely to cause not just human
distress but potentially conflict.
So for me it’s a very, very serious
issue of human rights.”
Mary Robinson, UN special
envoy for climate change, 201330
17
The billiard ball model: the impact of climate change on
development goals31
Climate
change
Climate change impacts
directly on three of the goals
From impact on these three
areas stems a range of
interlinked knock-on effects
on all goal areas
Food
security
Jobs and
prosperity
Income
poverty
Education
Gender
equality
Conflict
and
security
Energy
and water
Health
The IPCC is clear that climate change will exacerbate poverty in most
developing countries. This is due to a complex range of factors, but
particularly food price increases.32 It notes that, in the years since its
previous report in 2007, there have been rapid food price increases,
following climate extremes in key producing systems.
A similar picture emerges on health. A study, by The Lancet and University
College London, stated that climate change is the biggest global health
threat of the 21st century.33 Climate change influences disease patterns,
food, water, sanitation, extreme events, shelter and human settlements,
which in turn affect health outcomes. Infant mortality is closely linked to
under nutrition and food insecurity, both affected by climate change.34
Reducing carbon emissions will help to mitigate these effects; meanwhile,
there are economic, health and social opportunities in low carbon
development pathways. Decentralised low carbon energy, for example,
such as solar and wind, can provide electricity for the 70 per cent of
sub-Saharan Africans who currently have no access. Growth in off grid
solar has given 2.5 million households in Kenya access to energy.35
2015 provides a crucial opportunity to align development goals with
action on climate change, given the discussions around the Sustainable
18
Development Goals. The Paris agreement needs to acknowledge the
importance of climate change mitigation to development and the necessity
of finance, both to adapt to climate change and to invest in low carbon
economic pathways.
Global security
Climate change is also likely to affect global security, with defence experts
warning of increased conflict, humanitarian crises and refugee
movements.36 The Pentagon refers to climate change impacts as a “threat
multiplier” which aggravates poverty, political instability and social
tensions.37
Ecosystems and biodiversity
A strong climate agreement is essential to protecting ecosystems and
biodiversity, both in the UK and elsewhere. Biodiversity is already in
decline globally, and climate change will amplify this, significantly
increasing the risk of extinctions. The speed of change is of particular
concern, as it is unprecedented in geological history, and outpaces the
ability of many species to adapt.38 Academic analysis suggests that for each
additional degree of warming a further ten per cent level of extinction is
likely.39
With climate change of up to 2oC average warming, conservation strategies
will be more challenging and expensive, but if temperatures rise further
more major interventions will be required, such as deliberate relocation of
species or major ecosystem engineering projects, and in some cases they
will be impossible.40 Prevention, through emissions reduction, is cheaper
and more effective than a cure.
Ecosystem protection and restoration is of central importance to the
economy. The landmark TEEB study (The Economics of Ecosystems and
Biodiversity) estimates the future annual costs of biodiversity loss at
between £1.4 and £3.1 trillion.42 Consultants PwC say business is already
being affected by declining biodiversity, through increased resource costs
or reduced productivity in agriculture.43
Protecting and restoring ecosystems such as forests and peatlands also
helps to reduce emissions. About one quarter of all human-induced
emissions comes from agriculture, forestry and other land use, mainly
tropical deforestation and peatland degradation. This is recognised in
global climate talks. The REDD+ initiative has the dual aim of reducing
greenhouse gases and protecting forests in developing countries.
Negotiations are underway to provide a financing mechanism, rewarding
developing countries for protecting forests.
Climate change will amplify
existing social, political and
resource stresses, shifting the
tipping point at which
conflict ignites, rather than
directly causing it. Climate
change is likely to increase the
frequency, scale and duration
of humanitarian crises. It is
also likely to change patterns
of migration, making border
security an ongoing concern,
especially in the developed
world.”
UK Ministry of Defence, Global
strategic trends out to 204041
19
Tropical forests play an absolutely
critical role in ensuring the
stability of the global climate;
they are vital in providing global
food, water and energy security;
and let us not forget that
reducing deforestation is also
very likely the single most
effective way of avoiding the
mass extinction of animals and
plants.”
HRH the Prince of Wales,
May 201344
20
1 ‘Remarks by the President on Climate
Change’, 25 June 2013, Georgetown
University, Washington, DC
2 The ‘Durban Platform for Enhanced
Action’, or ADP, agreed two
workstreams: one on developing an
agreement in 2015 to take effect in
2020; the other to increase ambition
between now and 2020. See: unfccc.
int/bodies/body/6645.php
3 The UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change will consider
strengthening the goal to 1.5°C by 2015,
on the basis of best scientific knowledge
available, see: unfccc.int/key_steps/
cancun_agreements/items/6132.php
4 UNFCCC, October 2013, UNFCCC/
TP/2014/8, Updated compilation of
information on mitigation benefits
of actions, initiatives and options to
enhance mitigation ambition
5 The Risky Business Project is co-
chaired by Michael Bloomberg, Hank
Paulson and Tom Steyer to look at the
economic risks of climate change; June
2014, Risky business: the economic
risks of climate change in the US
6 CAFOD, April 2014, Discussion paper:
Doubling climate ambition: how the
post-2015 and UNFCCC processes
complement each other
7 Secretary-General’s address to
the General Assembly, New York,
September 2013
8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, September 2013, Climate
change 2013: the physical science basis
9 European Commission, 2014, Special
Eurobarometer 409: Climate change
report
10 GLOBE International, January 2014,
GLOBE climate legislation study, fourth
edition: review of climate change
legislation in 66 countries
11 Green Alliance, 2013, The global
green race: a business review of UK
competitiveness in low carbon markets
12 International Renewable Energy
Agency, November 2012, Renewable
power generation costs: summary for
policymakers
13 The goal of limiting warming to
less than two degrees Celsius was
agreed at the Copenhagen UN climate
conference and given formal status at
the UNFCCC negotiations in Cancun,
2010
14 UNEP, November 2010, The emissions
gap report: are the Copenhagen Accord
pledges sufficient to limit global
warming to 2 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C?
15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014:
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
16 Speaking in London, 7 May 2014
17 Office of the Spokesperson
Washington, DC, media note, 13 April
2013, ‘Joint US-China Statement on
Climate Change’
18 The ‘We Mean Business’ coalition is a
group of existing business coalitions
arguing for strong climate action
19 EU Climate Change Expert Group ‘EG
Science’, July 2008, The 2°C target:
background on impacts, emission
pathways, mitigation options and costs
20 Green Alliance, 2013, The global
green race: a business review of UK
competitiveness in low carbon markets
21 World Economic Forum, 2013, Green
investment report
22 World Bank news, 11 April 2014,
‘Heads of World Bank, IMF & UN
Discuss Climate Risks & Policies with
Finance Ministers’
23 IEA, 2013, World energy outlook
24 Committee on Climate Change,
December 2013, Fourth carbon budget
review, part 2: The cost-effective path
to the 2050 target
25 OECD, 2014, The cost of air pollution
26 PwC comment on IPCC Working Group
3 report, April 2014, pwc.blogs.com/
press_room/2014/04/pwc-comment-
on-ipcc-working-group-3-report-on-
climate-change-mitigation.html
27 IPCC, 2014, Climate change 2014:
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
28 World Economic Forum, Global risks
2013, eighth edition
29 World Bank & Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research and Climate
Analytics, November 2012, Turn down
the heat: why a 4degC warmer world
must be avoided, page ix
30 Mary Robinson speaking to RTCC,
September 2013, www.rtcc.
org/2013/09/19/mary-robinson-
climate-change-is-a-serious-issue-of-
human-rights/
31 The ‘billiard ball’ model is from:
Overseas Development Institute, 2014,
Zero poverty… think again, and is
reproduced with ODI’s kind permission
32 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2014, Climate change 2014:
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
33 The Lancet and University College
London Institute for Global Health
Commission, May 2009, Managing the
health effects of climate change
34 Ibid
35 Green Alliance, April 2014, The low
carbon energy lift: powering faster
development in sub-Saharan Africa
36 This is emphasised in reports by RUSI,
the IPCC and the Ministry of Defence,
for example.
37 US Department of Defense, 2014,
Quardrilennial defense review
38 Professor Chris Thomas, 2012, ‘Nature
conservation at 4degC’ in Climate
change: biodiversity and people on the
front line, RSPB, Natural England and
WWF-UK
39 Ibid
40 Ibid
41 Ministry of Defence, October 2013,
Global strategic trends out to 2040,
fourth edition, DCDC
42 TEEB, 2012, The economics of
ecosystems and biodiversity in
business and enterprise
43 PwC for the World Economic Forum,
January 2010, Biodiversity and
business risk
44 Prince Charles, 8 May 2013 speech to
a meeting on tropical forest science, St
James’s Palace
Endnotes
21
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