Business Adventures

Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street

John Brooks

Contents

1 The Fluctuation
THE LITTLE CRASH IN ’62
2 The Fate of the Edsel
A CAUTIONARY TALE
3 The Federal Income Tax
ITS HISTORY AND PECULIARITIES
4 A Reasonable Amount of Time
INSIDERS AT TEXAS GULF SULPHUR
5 Xerox Xerox Xerox Xerox
6 Making the Customers Whole
THE DEATH OF A PRESIDENT
7 The Impacted Philosophers
NON-COMMUNICATION AT GE
8 The Last Great Corner
A COMPANY CALLED PIGGLY WIGGLY
9 A Second Sort of Life
DAVID E. LILIENTHAL, BUSINESSMAN
10 Stockholder Season
ANNUAL MEETINGS AND CORPORATE POWER
11 One Free Bite
A MAN, HIS KNOWLEDGE, AND HIS JOB
12 In Defense of Sterling
THE BANKERS, THE POUND, AND THE DOLLAR
Index
1

The Fluctuation

THE STOCK MARKET—the daytime adventure serial of the well-to-do—would not be the stock market if
it did not have its ups and downs. Any board-room sitter with a taste for Wall Street lore has heard of
the retort that J. P. Morgan the Elder is supposed to have made to a naïve acquaintance who had
ventured to ask the great man what the market was going to do. “It will fluctuate,” replied Morgan
dryly. And it has many other distinctive characteristics. Apart from the economic advantages and
disadvantages of stock exchanges—the advantage that they provide a free flow of capital to finance
industrial expansion, for instance, and the disadvantage that they provide an all too convenient way
for the unlucky, the imprudent, and the gullible to lose their money—their development has created a
whole pattern of social behavior, complete with customs, language, and predictable responses to
given events. What is truly extraordinary is the speed with which this pattern emerged full blown
following the establishment, in 1611, of the world’s first important stock exchange—a roofless
courtyard in Amsterdam—and the degree to which it persists (with variations, it is true) on the New
York Stock Exchange in the nineteen-sixties. Present-day stock trading in the United States—a
bewilderingly vast enterprise, involving millions of miles of private telegraph wires, computers that
can read and copy the Manhattan Telephone Directory in three minutes, and over twenty million
stockholder participants—would seem to be a far cry from a handful of seventeenth-century Dutchmen
haggling in the rain. But the field marks are much the same. The first stock exchange was,
inadvertently, a laboratory in which new human reactions were revealed. By the same token, the New
York Stock Exchange is also a sociological test tube, forever contributing to the human species’ self-
understanding.
The behavior of the pioneering Dutch stock traders is ably documented in a book entitled
“Confusion of Confusions,” written by a plunger on the Amsterdam market named Joseph de la Vega;
originally published in 1688, it was reprinted in English translation a few years ago by the Harvard
Business School. As for the behavior of present-day American investors and brokers—whose traits,
like those of all stock traders, are exaggerated in times of crisis—it may be clearly revealed through a
consideration of their activities during the last week of May, 1962, a time when the stock market
fluctuated in a startling way. On Monday, May 28th, the Dow-Jones average of thirty leading
industrial stocks, which has been computed every trading day since 1897, dropped 34.95 points, or
more than it had dropped on any other day except October 28, 1929, when the loss was 38.33 points.
The volume of trading on May 28th was 9,350,000 shares—the seventh-largest one-day turnover in
Stock Exchange history. On Tuesday, May 29th, after an alarming morning when most stocks sank far
below their Monday-afternoon closing prices, the market suddenly changed direction, charged
upward with astonishing vigor, and finished the day with a large, though not record-breaking, Dow-
Jones gain of 27.03 points. Tuesday’s record, or near record, was in trading volume; the 14,750,000
shares that changed hands added up to the greatest one-day total ever except for October 29, 1929,
when trading ran just over sixteen million shares. (Later in the sixties, ten, twelve, and even fourteen-
million share days became commonplace; the 1929 volume record was finally broken on April 1st,
1968, and fresh records were set again and again in the next few months.) Then, on Thursday, May
31st, after a Wednesday holiday in observance of Memorial Day, the cycle was completed; on a
volume of 10,710,000 shares, the fifth-greatest in history, the Dow-Jones average gained 9.40 points,
leaving it slightly above the level where it had been before all the excitement began.
The crisis ran its course in three days, but, needless to say, the post-mortems took longer. One of
de la Vega’s observations about the Amsterdam traders was that they were “very clever in inventing
reasons” for a sudden rise or fall in stock prices, and the Wall Street pundits certainly needed all the
cleverness they could muster to explain why, in the middle of an excellent business year, the market
had suddenly taken its second-worst nose dive ever up to that moment. Beyond these explanations—
among which President Kennedy’s April crackdown on the steel industry’s planned price increase
ranked high—it was inevitable that the postmortems should often compare May, 1962, with October,
1929. The figures for price movement and trading volume alone would have forced the parallel, even
if the worst panic days of the two months—the twenty-eighth and the twenty-ninth—had not
mysteriously and, to some people, ominously coincided. But it was generally conceded that the
contrasts were more persuasive than the similarities. Between 1929 and 1962, regulation of trading
practices and limitations on the amount of credit extended to customers for the purchase of stock had
made it difficult, if not actually impossible, for a man to lose all his money on the Exchange. In short,
de la Vega’s epithet for the Amsterdam stock exchange in the sixteen-eighties—he called it “this
gambling hell,” although he obviously loved it—had become considerably less applicable to the New
York exchange in the thirty-three years between the two crashes.
THE 1962 crash did not come without warning, even though few observers read the warnings
correctly. Shortly after the beginning of the year, stocks had begun falling at a pretty consistent rate,
and the pace had accelerated to the point where the previous business week—that of May 21st
through May 25th—had been the worst on the Stock Exchange since June, 1950. On the morning of
Monday, May 28th, then, brokers and dealers had reason to be in a thoughtful mood. Had the bottom
been reached, or was it still ahead? Opinion appears, in retrospect, to have been divided. The Dow-
Jones news service, which sends its subscribers spot financial news by teleprinter, reflected a certain
apprehensiveness between the time it started its transmissions, at nine o’clock, and the opening of the
Stock Exchange, at ten. During this hour, the broad tape (as the Dow-Jones service, which is printed
on vertically running paper six and a quarter inches wide, is often called, to distinguish it from the
Stock Exchange price tape, which is printed horizontally and is only three-quarters of an inch high)
commented that many securities dealers had been busy over the weekend sending out demands for
additional collateral to credit customers whose stock assets were shrinking in value; remarked that
the type of precipitate liquidation seen during the previous week “has been a stranger to Wall Street
for years;” and went on to give several items of encouraging business news, such as the fact that
Westinghouse had just received a new Navy contract. In the stock market, however, as de la Vega
points out, “the news [as such] is often of little value;” in the short run, the mood of the investors is
what counts.
This mood became manifest within a matter of minutes after the Stock Exchange opened. At 10:11,
the broad tape reported that “stocks at the opening were mixed and only moderately active.” This was
reassuring information, because “mixed” meant that some were up and some were down, and also
because a falling market is universally regarded as far less threatening when the amount of activity in
it is moderate rather than great. But the comfort was short-lived, for by 10:30 the Stock Exchange
tape, which records the price and the share volume of every transaction made on the floor, not only
was consistently recording lower prices but, running at its maximum speed of five hundred characters
per minute, was six minutes late. The lateness of the tape meant that the machine was simply unable to
keep abreast of what was going on, so fast were trades being made. Normally, when a transaction is
completed on the floor of the Exchange, at 11 Wall Street, an Exchange employee writes the details
on a slip of paper and sends it by pneumatic tube to a room on the fifth floor of the building, where
one of a staff of girls types it into the ticker machine for transmission. A lapse of two or three minutes
between a floor transaction and its appearance on the tape is normal, therefore, and is not considered
by the Stock Exchange to be “lateness;” that word, in the language of the Exchange, is used only to
describe any additional lapse between the time a sales slip arrives on the fifth floor and the time the
hard-pressed ticker is able to accommodate it. (“The terms used on the Exchange are not carefully
chosen,” complained de la Vega.) Tape delays of a few minutes occur fairly often on busy trading
days, but since 1930, when the type of ticker in use in 1962 was installed, big delays had been
extremely rare. On October 24, 1929, when the tape fell two hundred and forty-six minutes behind, it
was being printed at the rate of two hundred and eighty-five characters a minute; before May, 1962,
the greatest delay that had ever occurred on the new machine was thirty-four minutes.
Unmistakably, prices were going down and activity was going up, but the situation was still not
desperate. All that had been established by eleven o’clock was that the previous week’s decline was
continuing at a moderately accelerated rate. But as the pace of trading increased, so did the tape
delay. At 10:55, it was thirteen minutes late; at 11:14, twenty minutes; at 11:35, twenty-eight minutes;
at 11:58, thirty-eight minutes; and at 12:14, forty-three minutes. (To inject at least a seasoning of up-
to-date information into the tape when it is five minutes or more in arrears, the Exchange periodically
interrupted its normal progress to insert “flashes,” or current prices of a few leading stocks. The time
required to do this, of course, added to the lateness.) The noon computation of the Dow-Jones
industrial average showed a loss for the day so far of 9.86 points.
Signs of public hysteria began to appear during the lunch hour. One sign was the fact that between
twelve and two, when the market is traditionally in the doldrums, not only did prices continue to
decline but volume continued to rise, with a corresponding effect on the tape; just before two o’clock,
the tape delay stood at fifty-two minutes. Evidence that people are selling stocks at a time when they
ought to be eating lunch is always regarded as a serious matter. Perhaps just as convincing a portent
of approaching agitation was to be found in the Times Square office (at 1451 Broadway) of Merrill
Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, the undisputed Gargantua of the brokerage trade. This office was
plagued by a peculiar problem: because of its excessively central location, it was visited every day at
lunchtime by an unusual number of what are known in brokerage circles as “walk-ins”—people who
are securities customers only in a minuscule way, if at all, but who find the atmosphere of a brokerage
office and the changing prices on its quotation board entertaining, especially in times of stock-market
crisis. (“Those playing the game merely for the sake of entertainment and not because of greediness
are easily to be distinguished.”—de la Vega.) From long experience, the office manager, a calm
Georgian named Samuel Mothner, had learned to recognize a close correlation between the current
degree of public concern about the market and the number of walk-ins in his office, and at midday on
May 28th the mob of them was so dense as to have, for his trained sensibilities, positively albatross-
like connotations of disaster ahead.
Mothner’s troubles, like those of brokers from San Diego to Bangor, were by no means confined to
disturbing signs and portents. An unrestrained liquidation of stocks was already well under way; in
Mothner’s office, orders from customers were running five or six times above average, and nearly all
of them were orders to sell. By and large, brokers were urging their customers to keep cool and hold
on to their stocks, at least for the present, but many of the customers could not be persuaded. In
another midtown Merrill Lynch office, at 61 West Forty-eighth Street, a cable was received from a
substantial client living in Rio de Janeiro that said simply, “Please sell out everything in my account.”
Lacking the time to conduct a long-distance argument in favor of forbearance, Merrill Lynch had no
choice but to carry out the order. Radio and television stations, which by early afternoon had caught
the scent of news, were now interrupting their regular programs with spot broadcasts on the situation;
as a Stock Exchange publication has since commented, with some asperity, “The degree of attention
devoted to the stock market in these news broadcasts may have contributed to the uneasiness among
some investors.” And the problem that brokers faced in executing the flood of selling orders was by
this time vastly complicated by technical factors. The tape delay, which by 2:26 amounted to fifty-
five minutes, meant that for the most part the ticker was reporting the prices of an hour before, which
in many cases were anywhere from one to ten dollars a share higher than the current prices. It was
almost impossible for a broker accepting a selling order to tell his customer what price he might
expect to get. Some brokerage firms were trying to circumvent the tape delay by using makeshift
reporting systems of their own; among these was Merrill Lynch, whose floor brokers, after
completing a trade, would—if they remembered and had the time—simply shout the result into a
floorside telephone connected to a “squawk box” in the firm’s head office, at 70 Pine Street.
Obviously, haphazard methods like this were subject to error.
On the Stock Exchange floor itself, there was no question of any sort of rally; it was simply a case
of all stocks’ declining rapidly and steadily, on enormous volume. As de la Vega might have
described the scene—as, in fact, he did rather flamboyantly describe a similar scene—“The bears
[that is, the sellers] are completely ruled by fear, trepidation, and nervousness. Rabbits become
elephants, brawls in a tavern become rebellions, faint shadows appear to them as signs of chaos.”
Not the least worrisome aspect of the situation was the fact that the leading bluechip stocks,
representing shares in the country’s largest companies, were right in the middle of the decline;
indeed, American Telephone & Telegraph, the largest company of them all, and the one with the
largest number of stockholders, was leading the entire market downward. On a share volume greater
than that of any of the more than fifteen hundred other stocks traded on the Exchange (most of them at a
tiny fraction of Telephone’s price), Telephone had been battered by wave after wave of urgent selling
all day, until at two o’clock it stood at 104¾—down 6⅞ for the day—and was still in full retreat.
Always something of a bellwether, Telephone was now being watched more closely than ever, and
each loss of a fraction of a point in its price was the signal for further declines all across the board.
Before three o’clock, I.B.M. was down 17½ points; Standard Oil of New Jersey, often exceptionally
resistant to general declines, was off 3¼; and Telephone itself had tumbled again, to 101⅛. Nor did
the bottom appear to be in sight.
Yet the atmosphere on the floor, as it has since been described by men who were there, was not
hysterical—or, at least, any hysteria was well controlled. While many brokers were straining to the
utmost the Exchange’s rule against running on the floor, and some faces wore expressions that have
been characterized by a conservative Exchange official as “studious,” there was the usual amount of
joshing, horseplay, and exchanging of mild insults. (“Jokes … form a main attraction to the
business.”—de la Vega.) But things were not entirely the same. “What I particularly remember is
feeling physically exhausted,” one floor broker has said. “On a crisis day, you’re likely to walk ten or
eleven miles on the floor—that’s been measured with pedometers—but it isn’t just the distance that
wears you down. It’s the physical contact. You have to push and get pushed. People climb all over
you. Then, there were the sounds—the tense hum of voices that you always get in times of decline. As
the rate of decline increases, so does the pitch of the hum. In a rising market, there’s an entirely
different sound. After you get used to the difference, you can tell just about what the market is doing
with your eyes shut. Of course, the usual heavy joking went on, and maybe the jokes got a little more
forced than usual. Everybody has commented on the fact that when the closing bell rang, at three-
thirty, a cheer went up from the floor. Well, we weren’t cheering because the market was down. We
were cheering because it was over.”
BUT was it over? This question occupied Wall Street and the national investing community all the
afternoon and evening. During the afternoon, the laggard Exchange ticker slogged along, solemnly
recording prices that had long since become obsolete. (It was an hour and nine minutes late at closing
time, and did not finish printing the day’s transactions until 5:58.) Many brokers stayed on the
Exchange floor until after five o’clock, straightening out the details of trades, and then went to their
offices to work on their accounts. What the price tape had to tell, when it finally got around to telling
it, was a uniformly sad tale. American Telephone had closed at 100⅝, down 11 for the day. Philip
Morris had closed at 71½, down 8¼ Campbell Soup had closed at 81, down 10¾. I.B.M. had closed
at 361, down 37½. And so it went. In brokerage offices, employees were kept busy—many of them
for most of the night—at various special chores, of which by far the most urgent was sending out
margin calls. A margin call is a demand for additional collateral from a customer who has borrowed
money from his broker to buy stocks and whose stocks are now worth barely enough to cover the
loan. If a customer is unwilling or unable to meet a margin call with more collateral, his broker will
sell the margined stock as soon as possible; such sales may depress other stocks further, leading to
more margin calls, leading to more stock sales, and so on down into the pit. This pit had proved
bottomless in 1929, when there were no federal restrictions on stock-market credit. Since then, a
floor had been put in it, but the fact remains that credit requirements in May of 1962 were such that a
customer could expect a call when stocks he had bought on margin had dropped to between fifty and
sixty per cent of their value at the time he bought them. And at the close of trading on May 28th nearly
one stock in four had dropped as far as that from its 1961 high. The Exchange has since estimated that
91,700 margin calls were sent out, mainly by telegram, between May 25th and May 31st; it seems a
safe assumption that the lion’s share of these went out in the afternoon, in the evening, or during the
night of May 28th—and not just the early part of the night, either. More than one customer first
learned of the crisis—or first became aware of its almost spooky intensity—on being awakened by
the arrival of a margin call in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
If the danger to the market from the consequences of margin selling was much less in 1962 than it
had been in 1929, the danger from another quarter—selling by mutual funds—was immeasurably
greater. Indeed, many Wall Street professionals now say that at the height of the May excitement the
mere thought of the mutual-fund situation was enough to make them shudder. As is well known to the
millions of Americans who have bought shares in mutual funds over the past two decades or so, they
provide a way for small investors to pool their resources under expert management; the small
investor buys shares in a fund, and the fund uses the money to buy stocks and stands ready to redeem
the investor’s shares at their current asset value whenever he chooses. In a serious stock-market
decline, the reasoning went, small investors would want to get their money out of the stock market and
would therefore ask for redemption of their shares; in order to raise the cash necessary to meet the
redemption demands, the mutual funds would have to sell some of their stocks; these sales would lead
to a further stock-market decline, causing more holders of fund shares to demand redemption—and so
on down into a more up-to-date version of the bottomless pit. The investment community’s collective
shudder at this possibility was intensified by the fact that the mutual funds’ power to magnify a market
decline had never been seriously tested; practically nonexistent in 1929, the funds had built up the
staggering total of twenty-three billion dollars in assets by the spring of 1962, and never in the interim
had the market declined with anything like its present force. Clearly, if twenty-three billion dollars in
assets, or any substantial fraction of that figure, were to be tossed onto the market now, it could
generate a crash that would make 1929 seem like a stumble. A thoughtful broker named Charles J.
Rolo, who was a book reviewer for the Atlantic until he joined Wall Street’s literary coterie in 1960,
has recalled that the threat of a fund-induced downward spiral, combined with general ignorance as
to whether or not one was already in progress, was “so terrifying that you didn’t even mention the
subject.” As a man whose literary sensibilities had up to then survived the well-known crassness of
economic life, Rolo was perhaps a good witness on other aspects of the downtown mood at dusk on
May 28th. “There was an air of unreality,” he said later. “No one, as far as I knew, had the slightest
idea where the bottom would be. The closing Dow-Jones average that day was down almost thirty-
five points, to about five hundred and seventy-seven. It’s now considered elegant in Wall Street to
deny it, but many leading people were talking about a bottom of four hundred—which would, of
course, have been a disaster. One heard the words ‘four hundred’ uttered again and again, although if
you ask people now, they tend to tell you they said ‘five hundred.’ And along with the apprehensions
there was a profound feeling of depression of a very personal sort among brokers. We knew that our
customers—by no means all of them rich—had suffered large losses as a result of our actions. Say
what you will, it’s extremely disagreeable to lose other people’s money. Remember that this
happened at the end of about twelve years of generally rising stock prices. After more than a decade
of more or less constant profits to yourself and your customers, you get to think you’re pretty good.
You’re on top of it. You can make money, and that’s that. This break exposed a weakness. It subjected
one to a certain loss of self-confidence, from which one was not likely to recover quickly.” The
whole thing was enough, apparently, to make a broker wish that he were in a position to adhere to de
la Vega’s cardinal rule: “ Never give anyone the advice to buy or sell shares, because, where
perspicacity is weakened, the most benevolent piece of advice can turn out badly.”
IT was on Tuesday morning that the dimensions of Monday’s debacle became evident. It had by now
been calculated that the paper loss in value of all stocks listed on the Exchange amounted to
$20,800,000,000. This figure was an all-time record; even on October 28, 1929, the loss had been a
mere $9,600,000,000, the key to the apparent inconsistency being the fact that the total value of the
stocks listed on the Exchange was far smaller in 1929 than in 1962. The new record also represented
a significant slice of our national income—specifically, almost four per cent. In effect, the United
States had lost something like two weeks’ worth of products and pay in one day. And, of course, there
were repercussions abroad. In Europe, where reactions to Wall Street are delayed a day by the time
difference, Tuesday was the day of crisis; by nine o’clock that morning in New York, which was
toward the end of the trading day in Europe, almost all the leading European exchanges were
experiencing wild selling, with no apparent cause other than Wall Street’s crash. The loss in Milan
was the worst in eighteen months. That in Brussels was the worst since 1946, when the Bourse there
reopened after the war. That in London was the worst in at least twenty-seven years. In Zurich, there
had been a sickening thirty-per-cent selloff earlier in the day, but some of the losses were now being
cut as bargain hunters came into the market. And another sort of backlash—less direct, but
undoubtedly more serious in human terms—was being felt in some of the poorer countries of the
world. For example, the price of copper for July delivery dropped on the New York commodity
market by forty-four one-hundredths of a cent per pound. Insignificant as such a loss may sound, it
was a vital matter to a small country heavily dependent on its copper exports. In his recent book “The
Great Ascent,” Robert L. Heilbroner had cited an estimate that for every cent by which copper prices
drop on the New York market the Chilean treasury lost four million dollars; by that standard, Chile’s
potential loss on copper alone was $1,760,000.
Yet perhaps worse than the knowledge of what had happened was the fear of what might happen
now. The Times began a queasy lead editorial with the statement that “something resembling an
earthquake hit the stock market yesterday,” and then took almost half a column to marshal its forces
for the reasonably ringing affirmation “Irrespective of the ups and downs of the stock market, we are
and will remain the masters of our economic fate.” The Dow-Jones news ticker, after opening up
shop at nine o’clock with its customary cheery “Good morning,” lapsed almost immediately into
disturbing reports of the market news from abroad, and by 9:45, with the Exchange’s opening still a
quarter of an hour away, was asking itself the jittery question “When will the dumping of stocks let
up?” Not just yet, it concluded; all the signs seemed to indicate that the selling pressure was “far from
satisfied.” Throughout the financial world, ugly rumors were circulating about the imminent failure of
various securities firms, increasing the aura of gloom. (“The expectation of an event creates a much
deeper impression … than the event itself.”—de la Vega.) The fact that most of these rumors later
proved false was no help at the time. Word of the crisis had spread overnight to every town in the
land, and the stock market had become the national preoccupation. In brokerage offices, the
switchboards were jammed with incoming calls, and the customers’ areas with walk-ins and, in many
cases, television crews. As for the Stock Exchange itself, everyone who worked on the floor had got
there early, to batten down against the expected storm, and additional hands had been recruited from
desk jobs on the upper floors of 11 Wall to help sort out the mountains of orders. The visitors’ gallery
was so crowded by opening time that the usual guided tours had to be suspended for the day. One
group that squeezed its way onto the gallery that morning was the eighth-grade class of Corpus Christi
Parochial School, of West 121st Street; the class’s teacher, Sister Aquin, explained to a reporter that
the children had prepared for their visit over the previous two weeks by making hypothetical stock-
market investments with an imaginary ten thousand dollars each. “They lost all their money,” said
Sister Aquin.
The Exchange’s opening was followed by the blackest ninety minutes in the memory of many
veteran dealers, including some survivors of 1929. In the first few minutes, comparatively few stocks
were traded, but this inactivity did not reflect calm deliberation; on the contrary, it reflected selling
pressure so great that it momentarily paralyzed action. In the interests of minimizing sudden jumps in
stock prices, the Exchange requires that one of its floor officials must personally grant his permission
before any stock can change hands at a price differing from that of the previous sale by one point or
more for a stock priced under twenty dollars, or by two points or more for a stock priced above
twenty dollars. Now sellers were so plentiful and buyers so scarce that hundreds of stocks would
have to open at price changes as great as that or greater, and therefore no trading in them was
possible until a floor official could be found in the shouting mob. In the case of some of the key
issues, like I.B.M., the disparity between sellers and buyers was so wide that trading in them was
impossible even with the permission of an official, and there was nothing to do but wait until the
prospect of getting a bargain price lured enough buyers into the market. The Dow-Jones broad tape,
stuttering out random prices and fragments of information as if it were in a state of shock, reported at
11:30 that “at least seven” Big Board stocks had still not opened; actually, when the dust had cleared
it appeared that the true figure had been much larger than that. Meanwhile, the Dow-Jones average
lost 11.09 more points in the first hour, Monday’s loss in stock values had been increased by several
billion dollars, and the panic was in full cry.
And along with panic came near chaos. Whatever else may be said about Tuesday, May 29th, it
will be long remembered as the day when there was something very close to a complete breakdown
of the reticulated, automated, mind-boggling complex of technical facilities that made nationwide
stock-trading possible in a huge country where nearly one out of six adults was a stockholder. Many
orders were executed at prices far different from the ones agreed to by the customers placing the
orders; many others were lost in transmission, or in the snow of scrap paper that covered the
Exchange floor, and were never executed at all. Sometimes brokerage firms were prevented from
executing orders by simple inability to get in touch with their floor men. As the day progressed,
Monday’s heavy-traffic records were not only broken but made to seem paltry; as one index,
Tuesday’s closing-time delay in the Exchange tape was two hours and twenty-three minutes,
compared to Monday’s hour and nine minutes. By a heaven-sent stroke of prescience, Merrill Lynch,
which handled over thirteen per cent of all public trading on the Exchange, had just installed a new
7074 computer—the device that can copy the Telephone Directory in three minutes—and, with its
help, managed to keep its accounts fairly straight. Another new Merrill Lynch installation—an
automatic teletype switching system that occupied almost half a city block and was intended to
expedite communication between the firm’s various offices—also rose to the occasion, though it got
so hot that it could not be touched. Other firms were less fortunate, and in a number of them confusion
gained the upper hand so thoroughly that some brokers, tired of trying in vain to get the latest
quotations on stocks or to reach their partners on the Exchange floor, are said to have simply thrown
up their hands and gone out for a drink. Such unprofessional behavior may have saved their customers
a great deal of money.
But the crowning irony of the day was surely supplied by the situation of the tape during the lunch
hour. Just before noon, stocks reached their lowest levels—down twenty-three points on the Dow-
Jones average. (At its nadir, the average reached 553.75—a safe distance above the 500 that the
experts now claim was their estimate of the absolute bottom.) Then they abruptly began an
extraordinarily vigorous recovery. At 12:45, by which time the recovery had become a mad scramble
to buy, the tape was fifty-six minutes late; therefore, apart from fleeting intimations supplied by a few
“flash” prices, the ticker was engaged in informing the stock-market community of a selling panic at a
moment when what was actually in progress was a buying panic.
THE great turnaround late in the morning took place in a manner that would have appealed to de la
Vega’s romantic nature—suddenly and rather melodramatically. The key stock involved was
American Telephone & Telegraph, which, just as on the previous day, was being universally watched
and was unmistakably influencing the whole market. The key man, by the nature of his job, was
George M. L. La Branche, Jr., senior partner in La Branche and Wood & Co., the firm that was acting
as floor specialist in Telephone. (Floor specialists are broker-dealers who are responsible for
maintaining orderly markets in the particular stocks with which they are charged. In the course of
meeting their responsibilities, they often have the curious duty of taking risks with their own money
against their own better judgment. Various authorities, seeking to reduce the element of human
fallibility in the market, have lately been trying to figure out a way to replace the specialists with
machines, but so far without success. One big stumbling block seems to be the question: If the
mechanical specialists should lose their shirts, who would pay their losses?) La Branche, at sixty-
four, was a short, sharp-featured, dapper, peppery man who was fond of sporting one of the Exchange
floor’s comparatively few Phi Beta Kappa keys; he had been a specialist since 1924, and his firm had
been the specialist in Telephone since late in 1929. His characteristic habitat—indeed, the spot
where he spent some five and a half hours almost every weekday of his life—was immediately in
front of Post 15, in the part of the Exchange that is not readily visible from the visitors’ gallery and is
commonly called the Garage; there, feet planted firmly apart to fend off any sudden surges of would-
be buyers or sellers, he customarily stood with pencil poised in a thoughtful way over an
unprepossessing loose-leaf ledger, in which he kept a record of all outstanding orders to buy and sell
Telephone stock at various price levels. Not surprisingly, the ledger was known as the Telephone
book. La Branche had, of course, been at the center of the excitement all day Monday, when
Telephone was leading the market downward. As specialist, he had been rolling with the punch like a
fighter—or to adopt his own more picturesque metaphor, bobbing like a cork on ocean combers.
“Telephone is kind of like the sea,” La Branche said later. “Generally, it is calm and kindly. Then all
of a sudden a great wind comes and whips up a giant wave. The wave sweeps over and deluges
everybody; then it sucks back again. You have to give with it. You can’t fight it, any more than King
Canute could.” On Tuesday morning, after Monday’s drenching eleven-point drop, the great wave
was still rolling; the sheer clerical task of sorting and matching the orders that had come in overnight
—not to mention finding a Stock Exchange official and obtaining his permission—took so long that
the first trade in Telephone could not be made until almost an hour after the Exchange’s opening.
When Telephone did enter the lists, at one minute before eleven, its price was 98½—down 2⅛ from
Monday’s closing. Over the next three-quarters of an hour or so, while the financial world watched it
the way a sea captain might watch the barometer in a hurricane, Telephone fluctuated between 99,
which it reached on momentary minor rallies, and 98⅛, which proved to be its bottom. It touched the
lower figure on three separate occasions, with rallies between—a fact that La Branche has spoken of
as if it had a magical or mystical significance. And perhaps it had; at any rate, after the third dip
buyers of Telephone began to turn up at Post 15, sparse and timid at first, then more numerous and
aggressive. At 11:45, the stock sold at 98¾; a few minutes later, at 99; at 11:50, at 99⅜; and finally,
at 11:55, it sold at 100.
Many commentators have expressed the opinion that that first sale of Telephone at 100 marked the
exact point at which the whole market changed direction. Since Telephone is among the stocks on
which the ticker gives flashes during periods of tape delay, the financial community learned of the
transaction almost immediately, and at a time when everything else it was hearing was very bad news
indeed; the theory goes that the hard fact of Telephone’s recovery of almost two points worked
together with a purely fortuitous circumstance—the psychological impact of the good, round number
100—to tip the scales. La Branche, while agreeing that the rise of Telephone did a lot to bring about
the general upturn, differs as to precisely which transaction was the crucial one. To him, the first sale
at 100 was insufficient proof of lasting recovery, because it involved only a small number of shares
(a hundred, as far as he remembers). He knew that in his book he had orders to sell almost twenty
thousand shares of Telephone at 100. If the demand for shares at that price were to run out before this
two-million-dollar supply was exhausted, then the price of Telephone would drop again, possibly
going as low as 98⅛ for a fourth time. And a man like La Branche, given to thinking in nautical terms,
may have associated a certain finality with the notion of going down for a fourth time.
It did not happen. Several small transactions at 100 were made in rapid succession, followed by
several more, involving larger volume. Altogether, about half the supply of the stock at that price was
gone when John J. Cranley, floor partner of Dreyfus & Co., moved unobtrusively into the crowd at
Post 15 and bid 100 for ten thousand shares of Telephone—just enough to clear out the supply and
thus pave the way for a further rise. Cranley did not say whether he was bidding on behalf of his firm,
one of its customers, or the Dreyfus Fund, a mutual fund that Dreyfus & Co. managed through one of
its subsidiaries; the size of the order suggests that the principal was the Dreyfus Fund. In any case, La
Branche needed only to say “Sold,” and as soon as the two men had made notations of it, the
transaction was completed. Where-upon Telephone could no longer be bought for 100.
There is historical precedent (though not from de la Vega’s day) for the single large Stock
Exchange transaction that turns the market, or is intended to turn it. At half past one on October 24,
1929—the dreadful day that has gone down in financial history as Black Thursday—Richard
Whitney, then acting president of the Exchange and probably the best-known figure on its floor, strode
conspicuously (some say “jauntily”) up to the post where U.S. Steel was traded, and bid 205, the
price of the last sale, for ten thousand shares. But there are two crucial differences between the 1929
trade and the 1962 one. In the first place, Whitney’s stagy bid was a calculated effort to create an
effect, while Cranley’s, delivered without fanfare, was apparently just a move to get a bargain for the
Dreyfus Fund. Secondly, only an evanescent rally followed the 1929 deal—the next week’s losses
made Black Thursday look no worse than gray—while a genuinely solid recovery followed the one in
1962. The moral may be that psychological gestures on the Exchange are most effective when they are
neither intended nor really needed. At all events, a general rally began almost immediately. Having
broken through the 100 barrier, Telephone leaped wildly upward: at 12:18, it was traded at 101¼; at
12:41, at 103½; and at 1:05, at 106¼. General Motors went from 45½ at 11:46 to 50 at 1:38.
Standard Oil of New Jersey went from 46¾ at 11:46 to 51 at 1:28. U.S. Steel went from 49½ at
11:40 to 52⅜ at 1:28. I.B.M. was, in its way, the most dramatic case of the lot. All morning, its stock
had been kept out of trading by an overwhelming preponderance of selling orders, and the guesses as
to its ultimate opening price varied from a loss of ten points to a loss of twenty or thirty; now such an
avalanche of buying orders appeared that when it was at last technically possible for the stock to be
traded, just before two o’clock, it opened up four points, on a huge block of thirty thousand shares. At
12:28, less than half an hour after the big Telephone trade, the Dow-Jones news service was sure
enough of what was happening to state flatly, “The market has turned strong.”
And so it had, but the speed of the turnaround produced more irony. When the broad tape has
occasion to transmit an extended news item, such as a report on a prominent man’s speech, it
customarily breaks the item up into a series of short sections, which can then be transmitted at
intervals, leaving time in the interstices for such spot news as the latest prices from the Exchange
floor. This was what it did during the early afternoon of May 29th with a speech delivered to the
National Press Club by H. Ladd Plumley, president of the United States Chamber of Commerce,
which began to be reported on the Dow-Jones tape at 12:25, or at almost exactly the same time that
the same news source declared the market to have turned strong. As the speech came out in sections
on the broad tape, it created an odd effect indeed. The tape started off by saying that Plumley had
called for “a thoughtful appreciation of the present lack of business confidence.” At this point, there
was an interruption for a few minutes’ worth of stock prices, all of them sharply higher. Then the tape
returned to Plumley, who was now warming to his task and blaming the stock-market plunge on “the
coincidental impact of two confidence-upsetting factors—a dimming of profit expectations and
President Kennedy’s quashing of the steel price increase.” Then came a longer interruption, chock-
full of reassuring facts and figures. At its conclusion, Plumley was back on the tape, hammering away
at his theme, which had now taken on overtones of “I told you so.” “We have had an awesome
demonstration that the ‘right business climate’ cannot be brushed off as a Madison Avenue cliché but
is a reality much to be desired,” the broad tape quoted him as saying. So it went through the early
afternoon; it must have been a heady time for the Dow-Jones subscribers, who could alternately
nibble at the caviar of higher stock prices and sip the champagne of Plumley’s jabs at the Kennedy
administration.
IT was during the last hour and a half on Tuesday that the pace of trading on the Exchange reached its
most frantic. The official count of trades recorded after three o’clock (that is, in the last half hour)
came to just over seven million shares—in normal times as they were reckoned in 1962, an unheard-
of figure even for a whole day’s trading. When the closing bell sounded, a cheer again arose from the
floor—this one a good deal more full-throated than Monday’s, because the day’s gain of 27.03 points
in the Dow-Jones average meant that almost three-quarters of Monday’s losses had been recouped; of
the $20,800,000,000 that had summarily vanished on Monday, $13,500,000,000 had now reappeared.
(These heart-warming figures weren’t available until hours after the close, but experienced securities
men are vouchsafed visceral intuitions of surprising statistical accuracy; some of them claim that at
Tuesday’s closing they could feel in their guts a Dow-Jones gain of over twenty-five points, and there
is no reason to dispute their claim.) The mood was cheerful, then, but the hours were long. Because of
the greater trading volume, tickers ticked and lights burned even farther into the night than they had on
Monday; the Exchange tape did not print the day’s last transaction until 8:15—four and three-quarters
hours after it had actually occurred. Nor did the next day, Memorial Day, turn out to be a day off for
the securities business. Wise old Wall Streeters had expressed the opinion that the holiday, falling by
happy chance in the middle of the crisis and thus providing an opportunity for the cooling of
overheated emotions, may have been the biggest factor in preventing the crisis from becoming a
disaster. What it indubitably did provide was a chance for the Stock Exchange and its member
organizations—all of whom had been directed to remain at their battle stations over the holiday—to
begin picking up the pieces.
The insidious effects of a late tape had to be explained to thousands of naïve customers who
thought they had bought U.S. Steel at, say, 50, only to find later that they had paid 54 or 55. The
complaints of thousands of other customers could not be so easily answered. One brokerage house
discovered that two orders it had sent to the floor at precisely the same time—one to buy Telephone
at the prevailing price, the other to sell the same quantity at the prevailing price—had resulted in the
seller’s getting 102 per share for his stock and the buyer’s paying 108 for his. Badly shaken by a
situation that seemed to cast doubt on the validity of the law of supply and demand, the brokerage
house made inquiries and found that the buying order had got temporarily lost in the crush and had
failed to reach Post 15 until the price had gone up six points. Since the mistake had not been the
customer’s, the brokerage firm paid him the difference. As for the Stock Exchange itself, it had a
variety of problems to deal with on Wednesday, among them that of keeping happy a team of
television men from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation who, having forgotten all about the
United States custom of observing a holiday on May 30th, had flown down from Montreal to take
pictures of Wednesday’s action on the Exchange. At the same time, Exchange officials were
necessarily pondering the problem of Monday’s and Tuesday’s scandalously laggard ticker, which
everyone agreed had been at the very heart of—if not, indeed, the cause of—the most nearly
catastrophic technical snarl in history. The Exchange’s defense of itself, later set down in detail,
amounts, in effect, to a complaint that the crisis came two years too soon. “It would be inaccurate to
suggest that all investors were served with normal speed and efficiency by existing facilities,” the
Exchange conceded, with characteristic conservatism, and went on to say that a ticker with almost
twice the speed of the present one was expected to be ready for installation in 1964. (In fact, the new
ticker and various other automation devices, duly installed more or less on time, proved to be so
heroically effective that the fantastic trading pace of April, 1968 was handled with only negligible
tape delays.) The fact that the 1962 hurricane hit while the shelter was under construction was
characterized by the Exchange as “perhaps ironic.”
There was still plenty of cause for concern on Thursday morning. After a period of panic selling,
the market has a habit of bouncing back dramatically and then resuming its slide. More than one
broker recalled that on October 30, 1929—immediately after the all-time-record two-day decline,
and immediately before the start of the truly disastrous slide that was to continue for years and
precipitate the great depression—the Dow-Jones gain had been 28.40, representing a rebound
ominously comparable to this one. In other words, the market still suffers at times from what de la
Vega clinically called “antiperistasis”—the tendency to reverse itself, then reverse the reversal, and
so on. A follower of the antiperistasis system of security analysis might have concluded that the
market was now poised for another dive. As things turned out, of course, it wasn’t. Thursday was a
day of steady, orderly rises in stock prices. Minutes after the ten-o’clock opening, the broad tape
spread the news that brokers everywhere were being deluged with buying orders, many of them
coming from South America, Asia, and the Western European countries that are normally active in the
New York stock market. “Orders still pouring in from all directions,” the broad tape announced
exultantly just before eleven. Lost money was magically reappearing, and more was on the way.
Shortly before two o’clock, the Dow-Jones tape, having proceeded from euphoria to insouciance,
took time off from market reports to include a note on plans for a boxing match between Floyd
Patterson and Sonny Liston. Markets in Europe, reacting to New York on the upturn just as they had
on the downturn, had risen sharply. New York copper futures had recovered over eighty per cent of
their Monday and Tuesday-morning losses, so Chile’s treasury was mostly bailed out. As for the
Dow-Jones industrial average at closing, it figured out to 613.36, meaning that the week’s losses had
been wiped out in toto, with a little bit to spare. The crisis was over. In Morgan’s terms, the market
had fluctuated; in de la Vega’s terms, antiperistasis had been demonstrated.
ALL that summer, and even into the following year, security analysts and other experts cranked out
their explanations of what had happened, and so great were the logic, solemnity, and detail of these
diagnoses that they lost only a little of their force through the fact that hardly any of the authors had
had the slightest idea what was going to happen before the crisis occurred. Probably the most
scholarly and detailed report on who did the selling that caused the crisis was furnished by the New
York Stock Exchange itself, which began sending elaborate questionnaires to its individual and
corporate members immediately after the commotion was over. The Exchange calculated that during
the three days of the crisis rural areas of the country were more active in the market than they
customarily are; that women investors had sold two and a half times as much stock as men investors;
that foreign investors were far more active than usual, accounting for 5.5 per cent of the total volume,
and, on balance, were substantial sellers; and, most striking of all, that what the Exchange calls
“public individuals”—individual investors, as opposed to institutional ones, which is to say people
who would be described anywhere but on Wall Street as private individuals—played an
astonishingly large role in the whole affair, accounting for an unprecedented 56.8 per cent of the total
volume. Breaking down the public individuals into income categories, the Exchange calculated that
those with family incomes of over twenty-five thousand dollars a year were the heaviest and most
insistent sellers, while those with incomes under ten thousand dollars, after selling on Monday and
early on Tuesday, bought so many shares on Thursday that they actually became net buyers over the
three-day period. Furthermore, according to the Exchange’s calculations, about a million shares—or
3.5 per cent of the total volume during the three days—were sold as a result of margin calls. In sum, if
there was a villain, it appeared to have been the relatively rich investor not connected with the
securities business—and, more often than might have been expected, the female, rural, or foreign one,
in many cases playing the market partly on borrowed money.
The role of the hero was filled, surprisingly, by the most frightening of untested forces in the market
—the mutual funds. The Exchange’s statistics showed that on Monday, when prices were plunging,
the funds bought 530,000 more shares than they sold, while on Thursday, when investors in general
were stumbling over each other trying to buy stock, the funds, on balance, sold 375,000 shares; in
other words, far from increasing the market’s fluctuation, the funds actually served as a stabilizing
force. Exactly how this unexpectedly benign effect came about remains a matter of debate. Since no
one has been heard to suggest that the funds acted out of sheer public-spiritedness during the crisis, it
seems safe to assume that they were buying on Monday because their managers had spotted bargains,
and were selling on Thursday because of chances to cash in on profits. As for the problem of
redemptions, there were, as had been feared, a large number of mutual-fund shareholders who
demanded millions of dollars of their money in cash when the market crashed, but apparently the
mutual funds had so much cash on hand that in most cases they could pay off their shareholders
without selling substantial amounts of stock. Taken as a group, the funds proved to be so rich and so
conservatively managed that they not only could weather the storm but, by happy inadvertence, could
do something to decrease its violence. Whether the same conditions would exist in some future storm
was and is another matter.
In the last analysis, the cause of the 1962 crisis remains unfathomable; what is known is that it
occurred, and that something like it could occur again. As one of Wall Street’s aged, ever-anonymous
seers put it recently, “I was concerned, but at no time did I think it would be another 1929. I never
said the Dow-Jones would go down to four hundred. I said five hundred. The point is that now, in
contrast to 1929, the government, Republican or Democratic, realizes that it must be attentive to the
needs of business. There will never be apple-sellers on Wall Street again. As to whether what
happened that May can happen again—of course it can. I think that people may be more careful for a
year or two, and then we may see another speculative buildup followed by another crash, and so on
until God makes people less greedy.”
Or, as de la Vega said, “It is foolish to think that you can withdraw from the Exchange after you
have tasted the sweetness of the honey.”
2

The Fate of the Edsel

RISE AND FLOWERING

IN the calendar of American economic life, 1955 was the Year of the Automobile. That year,
American automobile makers sold over seven million passenger cars, or over a million more than
they had sold in any previous year. That year, General Motors easily sold the public $325 million
worth of new common stock, and the stock market as a whole, led by the motors, gyrated upward so
frantically that Congress investigated it. And that year, too, the Ford Motor Company decided to
produce a new automobile in what was quaintly called the medium-price range—roughly, from
$2,400 to $4,000—and went ahead and designed it more or less in conformity with the fashion of the
day, which was for cars that were long, wide, low, lavishly decorated with chrome, liberally
supplied with gadgets, and equipped with engines of a power just barely insufficient to send them into
orbit. Two years later, in September, 1957, the Ford Company put its new car, the Edsel, on the
market, to the accompaniment of more fanfare than had attended the arrival of any other new car since
the same company’s Model A, brought out thirty years earlier. The total amount spent on the Edsel
before the first specimen went on sale was announced as a quarter of a billion dollars; its launching
—as Business Week declared and nobody cared to deny—was more costly than that of any other
consumer product in history. As a starter toward getting its investment back, Ford counted on selling
at least 200,000 Edsels the first year.
There may be an aborigine somewhere in a remote rain forest who hasn’t yet heard that things
failed to turn out that way. To be precise, two years two months and fifteen days later Ford had sold
only 109,466 Edsels, and, beyond a doubt, many hundreds, if not several thousands, of those were
bought by Ford executives, dealers, salesmen, advertising men, assembly-line workers, and others
who had a personal interest in seeing the car succeed. The 109,466 amounted to considerably less
than one per cent of the passenger cars sold in the United States during that period, and on November
19, 1959, having lost, according to some outside estimates, around $350 million on the Edsel, the
Ford Company permanently discontinued its production.
How could this have happened? How could a company so mightily endowed with money,
experience, and, presumably, brains have been guilty of such a monumental mistake? Even before the
Edsel was dropped, some of the more articulate members of the car-minded public had come forward
with an answer—an answer so simple and so seemingly reasonable that, though it was not the only
one advanced, it became widely accepted as the truth. The Edsel, these people argued, was designed,
named, advertised, and promoted with a slavish adherence to the results of public-opinion polls and
of their younger cousin, motivational research, and they concluded that when the public is wooed in
an excessively calculated manner, it tends to turn away in favor of some gruffer but more
spontaneously attentive suitor. Several years ago, in the face of an understandable reticence on the
part of the Ford Motor Company, which enjoys documenting its boners no more than anyone else, I set
out to learn what I could about the Edsel debacle, and my investigations have led me to believe that
what we have here is less than the whole truth.
For, although the Edsel was supposed to be advertised, and otherwise promoted, strictly on the
basis of preferences expressed in polls, some old-fashioned snake-oil-selling methods, intuitive
rather than scientific, crept in. Although it was supposed to have been named in much the same way,
science was curtly discarded at the last minute and the Edsel was named for the father of the
company’s president, like a nineteenth-century brand of cough drops or saddle soap. As for the
design, it was arrived at without even a pretense of consulting the polls, and by the method that has
been standard for years in the designing of automobiles—that of simply pooling the hunches of sundry
company committees. The common explanation of the Edsel’s downfall, then, under scrutiny, turns out
to be largely a myth, in the colloquial sense of that term. But the facts of the case may live to become
a myth of a symbolic sort—a modern American antisuccess story.
THE origins of the Edsel go back to the fall of 1948, seven years before the year of decision, when
Henry Ford II, who had been president and undisputed boss of the company since the death of his
grandfather, the original Henry, a year earlier, proposed to the company’s executive committee,
which included Ernest R. Breech, the executive vice-president, that studies be undertaken concerning
the wisdom of putting on the market a new and wholly different medium-priced car. The studies were
undertaken. There appeared to be good reason for them. It was a well-known practice at the time for
low-income owners of Fords, Plymouths, and Chevrolets to turn in their symbols of inferior caste as
soon as their earnings rose above five thousand dollars a year, and “trade up” to a medium-priced
car. From Ford’s point of view, this would have been all well and good except that, for some reason,
Ford owners usually traded up not to Mercury, the company’s only medium-priced car, but to one or
another of the medium-priced cars put out by its big rivals—Oldsmobile, Buick, and Pontiac, among
the General Motors products, and, to a lesser extent, Dodge and De Soto, the Chrysler candidates.
Lewis D. Crusoe, then a vice-president of the Ford Motor Company, was not overstating the case
when he said, “We have been growing customers for General Motors.”
The outbreak of the Korean War, in 1950, meant that Ford had no choice but to go on growing
customers for its competitors, since introducing a new car at such a time was out of the question. The
company’s executive committee put aside the studies proposed by President Ford, and there matters
rested for two years. Late in 1952, however, the end of the war appeared sufficiently imminent for the
company to pick up where it had left off, and the studies were energetically resumed by a group
called the Forward Product Planning Committee, which turned over much of the detailed work to the
Lincoln-Mercury Division, under the direction of Richard Krafve (pronounced Kraffy), the division’s
assistant general manager. Krafve, a forceful, rather saturnine man with a habitually puzzled look,
was then in his middle forties. The son of a printer on a small farm journal in Minnesota, he had been
a sales engineer and management consultant before joining Ford, in 1947, and although he could not
have known it in 1952, he was to have reason to look puzzled. As the man directly responsible for the
Edsel and its fortunes, enjoying its brief glory and attending it in its mortal agonies, he had a
rendezvous with destiny.
IN December, 1954, after two years’ work, the Forward Product Planning Committee submitted to the
executive committee a six-volume blockbuster of a report summarizing its findings. Supported by
copious statistics, the report predicted the arrival of the American millennium, or something a lot like
it, in 1965. By that time, the Forward Product Planning Committee estimated, the gross national
product would be $535 billion a year—up more than $135 billion in a decade. (As a matter of fact,
this part of the millennium arrived much sooner than the Forward Planners estimated. The G. N. P.
passed $535 billion in 1962, and for 1965 was $681 billion.) The number of cars in operation would
be seventy million—up twenty million. More than half the families in the nation would have incomes
of over five thousand dollars a year, and more than 40 percent of all the cars sold would be in the
medium-price range or better. The report’s picture of America in 1965, presented in crushing detail,
was of a country after Detroit’s own heart—its banks oozing money, its streets and highways choked
with huge, dazzling medium-priced cars, its newly rich, “upwardly mobile” citizens racked with
longings for more of them. The moral was clear. If by that time Ford had not come out with a second
medium-priced car—not just a new model, but a new make—and made it a favorite in its field, the
company would miss out on its share of the national boodle.
On the other hand, the Ford bosses were well aware of the enormous risks connected with putting a
new car on the market. They knew, for example, that of the 2,900 American makes that had been
introduced since the beginning of the Automobile Age—the Black Crow (1905), the Averageman’s
Car (1906), the Bug-mobile (1907), the Dan Patch (1911), and the Lone Star (1920) among them—
only about twenty were still around. They knew all about the automotive casualties that had followed
the Second World War—among them Crosley, which had given up altogether, and Kaiser Motors,
which, though still alive in 1954, was breathing its last. (The members of the Forward Product
Planning Committee must have glanced at each other uneasily when, a year later, Henry J. Kaiser
wrote, in a valediction to his car business, “We expected to toss fifty million dollars into the
automobile pond, but we didn’t expect it to disappear without a ripple.”) The Ford men also knew
that neither of the other members of the industry’s powerful and well-heeled Big Three—General
Motors and Chrysler—had ventured to bring out a new standard-size make since the former’s La
Salle in 1927, and the lat