Top 10 Emerging
Technologies of 2020
S P E C I A L R E P O R T
N O V E M B E R 2 0 2 0
Contents
Introduction
1 Microneedles for Painless Injections and Tests
2 Sun-Powered Chemistry
3 Virtual Patients
4 Spatial Computing
5 Digital Medicine
6 Electric Aviation
7 Lower-Carbon Cement
8 Quantum Sensing
9 Green Hydrogen
10 Whole-Genome Synthesis
Acknowledgements
3
4
6
8
10
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14
16
18
20
22
24
Illustrations: Vanessa Branchi
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storage and retrieval system.
Inside: Unsplash/Ben Sweet; Unsplash/
Paul Siewert; Unplash/Tanishq Tiwari;
Unsplash/Jared Arango; Unsplash/Lanju
Fotografie; Unsplash/Nordwood Themes;
Unsplash/Jerry Zhang; Unsplash/Matt
Reames; Unsplash/Michael Dziedzic;
Unsplash/Erda Estremera
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
2
Introduction
If some of the many thousands of human volunteers
needed to test coronavirus vaccines could have
been replaced by digital replicas – one of this
year’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies – COVID-19
vaccines might have been developed even faster,
saving untold lives. Soon virtual clinical trials could
be a reality for testing new vaccines and therapies.
Other technologies on the list could reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by electrifying air
travel and enabling sunlight to directly power the
production of industrial chemicals. With “spatial”
computing, the digital and physical worlds will
be integrated in ways that go beyond the feats
of virtual reality. And ultrasensitive sensors that
exploit quantum processes will set the stage for
such applications as wearable brain scanners and
vehicles that can see around corners.
These and the other emerging technologies have
been singled out by an international steering group
of experts. The group, convened by Scientific
American and the World Economic Forum, sifted
through more than 75 nominations. To win the
nod, the technologies must have the potential
to spur progress in societies and economies by
outperforming established ways of doing things.
They also need to be novel (that is, not currently in
wide use) yet likely to have a major impact within
the next three to five years. The steering group met
(virtually) to whittle down the candidates and then
closely evaluate the front-runners before making the
final decisions. We hope you are as inspired by the
reports that follow as we are.
Experts highlight advances with
the potential to revolutionize industry,
healthcare and society
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
November 2020
The group,
convened by
Scientific American
and the World
Economic Forum,
sifted through
more than 75
nominations.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
3
Microneedles for
Painless Injections
and Tests
1
Fewer trips to medical labs make
care more accessible
MEDICINE
Elizabeth O’Day
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
4
Barely visible needles, or “microneedles”, are
poised to usher in an era of pain-free injections
and blood testing. Whether attached to a syringe
or a patch, microneedles prevent pain by avoiding
contact with nerve endings. Typically 50-2,000
microns in length (about the depth of a sheet
of paper), and 1-100 microns wide (about the
width of human hair), they penetrate the dead top
layer of skin to reach into the second layer – the
epidermis – consisting of viable cells and a liquid
known as interstitial fluid. But most do not reach,
or only barely touch, the underlying dermis where
the nerve endings lie, along with blood and lymph
vessels and connective tissue.
Many microneedle syringe and patch applications
are already available for administering vaccines
and many more are in clinical trials for use in
treating diabetes, cancer and neuropathic pain.
Because these devices insert drugs directly into the
epidermis or dermis, they deliver medicines much
more efficiently than familiar transdermal patches,
which rely on diffusion through the skin. This year
researchers debuted a novel technique for treating
skin disorders such as psoriasis, warts and certain
types of cancer: mixing star-shaped microneedles
into a therapeutic cream or gel. The needles’
temporary gentle perforation of the skin enhances
passage of the therapeutic agent.
Many microneedle products are moving towards
commercialization for rapid, painless draws of
blood or interstitial fluid and for use in diagnostic
testing or health monitoring. Tiny holes made by
the needles induce a local change in pressure in
the epidermis or dermis that forces interstitial fluid
or blood into a collection device. If the needles
are coupled to biosensors, the devices can, within
minutes, directly measure biological markers
indicative of health or disease status, such as
glucose, cholesterol, alcohol, drug by-products or
immune cells.
Some products would allow the draws to be
done at home and mailed to a lab or analysed
on the spot. At least one product has already
cleared regulatory hurdles for such use. The
United States and Europe recently approved the
TAP blood collection device from Seventh Sense
Biosystems, which enables lay people to collect
a small sample of blood on their own, whether for
sending to a lab or for self-monitoring. In research
settings, microneedles are also being integrated
with wireless communication devices to measure
a biological molecule, use the measurement to
determine a proper drug dose and then deliver
that dose – an approach that could help realize the
promise of personalized medicine.
Microneedle devices could enable testing and
treatment to be delivered in underserved areas
because they do not require costly equipment or
a lot of training to administer. Micron Biomedical
has developed one such easy-to-use device:
a bandage-sized patch that anyone can apply.
Another company, Vaxxas, is developing a
microneedle vaccine patch that in animal and
early human testing elicited enhanced immune
responses using a mere fraction of the usual dose.
Microneedles can also reduce the risk of transmitting
blood-borne viruses and decrease hazardous waste
from the disposal of conventional needles.
Tiny needles are not always an advantage; they
will not suffice when large doses are needed. Not
all drugs can pass through microneedles, nor can
all bio-markers be sampled through them. More
research is needed to understand how factors
such as the age and weight of the patient, the site
of injection and the delivery technique influence the
effectiveness of microneedle-based technologies.
Still, these painless prickers can be expected to
significantly expand drug delivery and diagnostics
and new uses will arise as investigators devise
ways to use them in organs beyond the skin.
The needles’
temporary gentle
perforation of the
skin enhances
passage of the
therapeutic agent.
Microneedles are typically
1-100 microns wide (about
the width of human hair).
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
5
Sun-Powered
Chemistry
2
Visible light can drive processes
that convert carbon dioxide into
common materials
CHEMICAL ENGINEERING
Javier Garcia Martinez
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
6
The manufacture of many chemicals important
to human health and comfort consumes fossil
fuels, thereby contributing to extractive processes,
carbon dioxide emissions and climate change. A
new approach employs sunlight to convert waste
carbon dioxide into these needed chemicals,
potentially reducing emissions in two ways – by
using the unwanted gas as a raw material, and
sunlight, not fossil fuels, as the source of energy
needed for production.
This process is becoming increasingly feasible
thanks to advances in sunlight-activated catalysts,
or photocatalysts. In recent years, investigators
have developed photocatalysts that break the
resistant double bond between carbon and
oxygen in carbon dioxide. This is a critical first
step in creating “solar” refineries that produce
useful compounds from the waste gas – including
“platform” molecules that can serve as raw
materials for the synthesis of such varied products
as medicines, detergents, fertilizers and textiles.
Photocatalysts are typically semiconductors, which
require high-energy ultraviolet light to generate
the electrons involved in the transformation of
carbon dioxide. Yet ultraviolet light is both scarce
(representing just 5% of sunlight) and harmful. The
development of new catalysts that work under more
abundant and benign visible light has therefore been
a major objective. That demand is being addressed
by careful engineering of the composition, structure
and morphology of existing catalysts, such as
titanium dioxide. Although it efficiently converts
carbon dioxide into other molecules solely in
response to ultraviolet light, doping it with nitrogen
greatly lowers the energy required to do so. The
altered catalyst now needs only visible light to
yield widely used chemicals such as methanol,
formaldehyde and formic acid – collectively
important in the manufacture of adhesives, foams,
plywood, cabinetry, flooring and disinfectants.
At the moment, solar chemical research is
occurring mainly in academic laboratories,
including at the Joint Center for Artificial
Photosynthesis, run by the California Institute
of Technology in partnership with Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory; a Netherlands-based
collaboration of universities, industry and research
and technology organizations called the Sunrise
consortium; and the department of heterogeneous
reactions at the Max Planck Institute for Chemical
Energy Conversion in Mülheim, Germany. Some
start-ups are working on a different approach
to transforming carbon dioxide into useful
substances; namely, applying electricity to drive the
chemical reactions. Using electricity to power the
reactions would obviously be less environmentally
friendly than using sunlight if the electricity were
derived from fossil-fuel combustion, but reliance on
photovoltaics could overcome that drawback.
The advances occurring in the sunlight-driven
conversion of carbon dioxide into chemicals are
sure to be commercialized and further developed
by start-ups or other companies in the coming
years. Then the chemical industry – by transforming
what today is waste carbon dioxide into valuable
products – will move a step closer to becoming
part of a true, waste-free, circular economy, as well
as helping to make the goal of generating negative
emissions a reality.
Creating molecules that
can serve as raw materials
for the synthesis of
medicines, detergents,
fertilizers and textiles.
A new approach
employs sunlight
to convert waste
carbon dioxide
into these needed
chemicals.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
7
Virtual Patients
3
Replacing humans with simulations
could make clinical trials faster and safer
HEALTHCARE
Daniel E. Hurtado and Sophia M. Velastegui
Authors
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
8
Every day, it seems, some new algorithm
enables computers to diagnose a disease with
unprecedented accuracy, renewing predictions
that computers will soon replace doctors. What
if computers could replace patients as well? If
virtual humans could have replaced real people
in some stages of a coronavirus vaccine trial, for
instance, it could have sped development of a
preventive tool and slowed down the pandemic.
Similarly, potential vaccines that weren’t likely to
work could have been identified early, slashing
trial costs and avoiding testing poor vaccine
candidates on living volunteers. These are some
of the benefits of “in silico medicine”, or the testing
of drugs and treatments on virtual organs or body
systems to predict how a real person will respond
to the therapies. For the foreseeable future, real
patients will be needed in late-stage studies, but in
silico trials will make it possible to conduct quick
and inexpensive first assessments of safety and
efficacy, drastically reducing the number of live
human subjects required for experimentation.
With virtual organs, the modelling begins by
feeding anatomical data drawn from non-invasive,
high-resolution imaging of an individual’s actual
organ into a complex mathematical model of the
mechanisms that govern that organ’s function.
Algorithms running on powerful computers resolve
the resulting equations and unknowns, generating
a virtual organ that looks and behaves like the
real thing.
In silico clinical trials are already under way to an
extent. The US Food and Drug Administration
(FDA), for instance, is using computer simulations
in place of human trials for evaluating new
mammography systems. The agency has also
published guidance for designing trials of drugs
and devices that include virtual patients.
Beyond speeding results and mitigating the risks
of clinical trials, in silico medicine can be used in
place of risky interventions that are required for
diagnosing or planning treatment of certain medical
conditions. For example, HeartFlow Analysis, a
cloud-based service approved by the FDA, enables
clinicians to identify coronary artery disease based
on CT images of a patient’s heart. The HeartFlow
system uses these images to construct a fluid
dynamic model of the blood running through
the coronary blood vessels, thereby identifying
abnormal conditions and their severity. Without
this technology, doctors would need to perform
an invasive angiogram to decide whether and
how to intervene. Experimenting on digital models
of individual patients can also help personalize
therapy for any number of conditions and is already
used in diabetes care.
The philosophy behind in silico medicine is
not new. The ability to create and simulate the
performance of an object under hundreds of
operating conditions has been a cornerstone of
engineering for decades, such as for designing
electronic circuits, aircraft and buildings. Various
hurdles remain to its widespread implementation in
medical research and treatment.
First, the predictive power and reliability of this
technology must be confirmed and that will require
several advances. Those include the generation
of high-quality medical databases from a large,
ethnically diverse patient base that has women as
well as men; refinement of mathematical models
to account for the many interacting processes
in the body; and further modification of artificial
intelligence methods that were developed
primarily for computer-based speech and image
recognition and need to be extended to provide
biological insights. The scientific community and
industry partners are addressing these issues
through initiatives such as the Living Heart Project
by Dassault Systèmes, the Virtual Physiological
Human Institute for Integrative Biomedical
Research and Microsoft’s Healthcare NExT.
In recent years the FDA and European regulators
have approved some commercial uses of
computer-based diagnostics, but meeting
regulatory demands requires considerable time
and money. Creating demand for these tools is
challenging given the complexity of the healthcare
ecosystem. In silico medicine must be able to
deliver cost-effective value for patients, clinicians
and healthcare organizations to accelerate their
adoption of the technology.
Potential
vaccines that
weren’t likely to
work could have
been identified
early, slashing
trial costs and
avoiding testing
poor vaccine
candidates on
living volunteers.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
9
Spatial Computing
4
The next big thing beyond virtual
and augmented reality
COMPUTING
Corinna E. Lathan and Geoffrey Ling
Authors
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
10
Imagine Martha, an octogenarian who lives
independently and uses a wheelchair. All objects in
her home are digitally catalogued, all sensors and
the devices that control objects have been internet-
enabled, and a digital map of her home has been
merged with the object map. As Martha moves
from her bedroom to the kitchen, the lights switch
on and the ambient temperature adjusts. The chair
will slow if her cat crosses her path. When she
reaches the kitchen, the table moves to improve
her access to the refrigerator and stove, then
moves back when she is ready to eat. Later, if she
begins to fall when getting into bed, her furniture
shifts to protect her and an alert goes to her son
and the local monitoring station.
The “spatial computing” at the heart of this scene
is the next step in the ongoing convergence of
the physical and digital worlds. It does everything
virtual reality and augmented reality apps do:
digitize objects that connect via the cloud; allow
sensors and motors to react to one another; and
digitally represent the real world. Then it combines
these capabilities with high-fidelity spatial mapping
to enable a computer “coordinator” to track
and control the movements and interactions of
objects as a person navigates through the digital
or physical world. Spatial computing will soon
bring human-machine and machine-machine
interactions to new levels of efficiency in many
walks of life, among them industry, healthcare,
transportation and the home. Major companies,
including Microsoft and Amazon, are heavily
invested in the technology.
As is true of virtual and augmented reality, spatial
computing builds on the “digital twin” concept
familiar from computer-aided design (CAD). In
CAD, engineers create a digital representation of an
object. This twin can be used variously to 3-D print
the object, design new versions of it, provide virtual
training on it or join it with other digital objects to
create virtual worlds. Spatial computing makes
digital twins not just of objects but of people and
locations – using GPS, lidar (light detection and
ranging), video and other geolocation technologies
to create a digital map of a room, a building or a
city. Software algorithms integrate this digital map
with sensor data and digital representations of
objects and people to create a digital world that
can be observed, quantified and manipulated and
that can also manipulate the real world.
In the medical realm, consider this futuristic
scenario. A paramedic team is dispatched to
an apartment in a city to handle a patient who
might need emergency surgery. As the system
sends the patient’s medical records and real-time
updates to the technicians’ mobile devices and
to the emergency department, it also determines
the fastest driving route to reach the person. Red
lights hold crossing traffic and as the ambulance
pulls up, the building’s entry doors open, revealing
an elevator already in position. Objects move
out of the way as the medics hurry in with their
stretcher. As the system guides them to the ER
via the quickest route, a surgical team uses spatial
computing and augmented reality to map out the
choreography of the entire operating room or plan
a surgical path through this patient’s body.
Industry has already embraced the integration of
dedicated sensors, digital twins and the internet
of things to optimize productivity and will likely
be an early adopter of spatial computing. The
technology can add location-based tracking to
a piece of equipment or an entire factory. By
donning augmented-reality headsets or viewing
a projected holographic image that displays not
only repair instructions but also a spatial map
of the machine components, workers can be
guided through and around the machine to fix it as
efficiently as possible, shrinking time and its costs.
Or if a technician were engaging with a virtual-
reality version of a true remote site to direct several
robots as they built a factory, spatial-computing
algorithms could help optimize the safety, efficiency
and quality of the work by improving, for example,
the coordination of the robots and the selection
of tasks assigned to them. In a more common
scenario, fast food and retail companies could
combine spatial computing with standard industrial
engineering techniques (such as time-motion
analyses) to enhance the efficient flow of work.
The ‘spatial
computing’ at the
heart of this scene
is the next step
in the ongoing
convergence of
the physical and
digital worlds.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
11
Digital Medicine
5
Apps that diagnose and even
treat what ails us
MEDICINE
P. Murali Doraiswamy
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
12
Could the next prescription from your doctor
be for an app? A raft of apps in use or under
development can now detect or monitor mental
and physical disorders autonomously or directly
administer therapies. Collectively known as
digital medicines, the software can both enhance
traditional medical care and support patients when
access to healthcare is limited – a need that the
COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated.
Many detection aids rely on mobile devices to
record such features as users’ voices, locations,
facial expressions, exercise, sleep and texting
activity; then they apply artificial intelligence
to flag the possible onset or exacerbation of a
condition. Some smart watches, for instance,
contain a sensor that automatically detects and
alerts people to atrial fibrillation, a dangerous heart
rhythm. Similar tools are in the works to screen
for breathing disorders, depression, Parkinson’s,
Alzheimer’s, autism and other conditions. These
detection, or “digital phenotyping”, aids will
not replace a doctor any time soon but can be
helpful partners in highlighting concerns that
need follow-up. Detection aids can also take the
form of ingestible, sensor-bearing pills, called
microbioelectronic devices. Some are being
developed to detect things such as cancerous
DNA, gases emitted by gut microbes, stomach
bleeds, body temperature and oxygen levels. The
sensors relay the data to apps for recording.
The therapeutic apps are likewise designed for a
variety of disorders. The first prescription digital
therapeutic to gain FDA approval was Pear
Therapeutics’s reSET technology for substance
use disorder. Given approval in 2018 as an adjunct
to care from a health professional, reSET provides
24/7 cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and gives
clinicians real-time data on their patients’ cravings
and triggers. Somryst, an insomnia therapy app,
and EndeavorRX, the first therapy delivered as
a video game for children with attention deficit
hyperactivity disorder, received FDA clearance
earlier this year.
Looking ahead, Luminopia, a children’s health
start-up, has designed a virtual reality app to treat
amblyopia (lazy eye), an alternative to an eyepatch.
One day college students might receive alerts from
a smart watch suggesting they seek help for mild
depression after the watch detects changes in
speech and socializing patterns; then they might
turn to the Woebot chat bot for CBT counselling.
Not all wellness apps qualify as digital medicines.
For the most part, those intended to diagnose or
treat disorders must be proved safe and effective
in clinical trials and earn regulatory approval;
some may need a doctor’s prescription. (In April
2020, to help with the COVID-19 pandemic, the
FDA made temporary exceptions for low-risk
mental health devices.)
COVID-19 highlighted the importance of digital
medicine. As the outbreak unfolded, dozens of
apps for detecting depression and providing
counselling became available. Additionally,
hospitals and government agencies across the
globe deployed variations of Microsoft’s Healthcare
Bot service. Instead of waiting on hold with a call
centre or risking a trip to the emergency room,
people concerned about experiencing, say,
coughing and fever could chat with a bot, which
used natural language processing to ask about
symptoms and, based on AI analyses, could
describe possible causes or begin a telemedicine
session for assessment by a physician. By late
April, the bots had already fielded more than 200
million inquiries about COVID symptoms and
treatments. Such interventions greatly reduced the
strain on health systems.
Clearly, society must move into the future of
digital medicine with care – ensuring that the tools
undergo rigorous testing, protect privacy and
integrate smoothly into doctors’ workflows. With
such protections in place, digital phenotyping
and therapeutics could save healthcare costs by
flagging unhealthy behaviours and helping people
to make changes before diseases set in. Moreover,
applying AI to the big data sets that will be
generated by digital phenotyping and therapeutic
apps should help to personalize patient care. The
patterns that emerge will also provide researchers
with novel ideas for how best to build healthier
habits and prevent disease.
inquiries about
COVID symptoms
and treatments
to AI bots
200m
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
13
Electric Aviation
6
Enabling air travel to decarbonize
TRANSPOR TATION
Katherine Hamilton and Tammy Ma
Authors
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
14
In 2019, air travel accounted for 2.5% of global
carbon emissions, a number that could triple by
2050. While some airlines have started offsetting
their contributions to atmospheric carbon,
significant cutbacks are still needed. Electric
airplanes could provide the scale of transformation
required and many companies are racing to develop
them. Not only would electric propulsion motors
eliminate direct carbon emissions, they could also
reduce fuel costs by up to 90%, maintenance by up
to 50% and noise by nearly 70%.
Among the companies working on electric flight
are Airbus, Ampaire, MagniX and Eviation. All are
flight-testing aircraft meant for private, corporate
or commuter trips and are seeking certification
from the US Federal Aviation Administration. Cape
Air, one of the largest regional airlines, expects
to be among the first customers, with plans to
buy the Alice nine-passenger electric aircraft from
Eviation. Cape Air’s CEO Dan Wolf has said he is
interested not only in the environmental benefits
but also in potential savings on operation costs.
Electric motors generally have longer life spans
than the hydrocarbon-fuelled engines in his current
aircraft; they need an overhaul at 20,000 hours
versus 2,000.
Forward-propulsion engines are not the only ones
going electric. NASA’s X-57 Maxwell electric plane,
under development, replaces conventional wings
with shorter ones that feature a set of distributed
electric propellers. On conventional jets, wings
must be large enough to provide lift when a craft is
traveling at a low speed, but the large surface area
adds drag at higher speeds. Electric propellers
increase lift during take-off, allowing for smaller
wings and overall higher efficiency.
For the foreseeable future, electric planes will be
limited in how far they can travel. Today’s best
batteries put out far less power by weight than
traditional fuels: an energy density of 250 watt-
hours per kilogram versus 12,000 watt-hours per
kilogram for jet fuel. The batteries required for a
given flight are therefore far heavier than standard
fuel and take up more space. Approximately half
of all flights globally are fewer than 800 kilometres,
which is expected to be within the range of battery-
powered electric aircraft by 2025.
Electric aviation faces cost and regulatory
hurdles, but investors, incubators, corporations
and governments excited by the progress of
this technology are investing significantly in its
development – some $250 million flowed to
electric aviation start-ups between 2017 and 2019.
Currently, about 170 electric airplane projects are
under way. Most electric airplanes are designed for
private, corporate and commuter travel, but Airbus
says it plans to have 100 passenger versions ready
to fly by 2030.
Electric
propellers increase
lift during take-off,
allowing for smaller
wings and overall
higher efficiency.
Not only would electric
propulsion motors
eliminate direct carbon
emissions, they could also
reduce fuel costs by up
to 90%, maintenance by
up to 50% and noise by
nearly 70%.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
15
Lower-Carbon Cement
7
Construction material that combats
climate change
INFRASTRUCTURE
Mariette DiChristina
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
16
Concrete, the most widely used human-made
material, shapes much of our built world. The
manufacture of one of its key components,
cement, creates a substantial yet underappreciated
amount of human-produced carbon dioxide: up to
8% of the global total, according to the London-
based think tank Chatham House. It has been said
that if cement production were a country, it would
be the third-largest emitter after China and the US.
Currently, 4 billion tonnes of cement are produced
every year, but because of increasing urbanization,
that figure is expected to rise to 5 billion tonnes in
the next 30 years, Chatham House reports. The
emissions from cement production result from
the fossil fuels used to generate heat for cement
formation, as well as from the chemical process in
a kiln that transforms limestone into clinker, which
is then ground and combined with other materials
to make cement.
Although the construction industry is typically
resistant to change for a variety of reasons –
safety and reliability among them – the pressure
to decrease its contributions to climate change
may well accelerate disruption. In 2018, the
Global Cement and Concrete Association, which
represents about 30% of worldwide production,
announced the industry’s first Sustainability
Guidelines, a set of key measurements such
as emissions and water usage intended to
track performance improvements and make
them transparent.
Meanwhile, a variety of lower-carbon approaches
are being pursued, with some already in practice.
Start-up Solidia in Piscataway, New Jersey, is
employing a chemical process licensed from
Rutgers University that has cut 30% of the carbon
dioxide usually released in making cement. The
recipe uses more clay, less limestone and less
heat than typical processes. CarbonCure in
Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, stores carbon dioxide
captured from other industrial processes in
concrete through mineralization rather than
releasing it into the atmosphere as a by-product.
Montreal-based CarbiCrete ditches the cement
in concrete altogether, replacing it with a by-
product of steelmaking called steel slag. And
Norcem, a major producer of cement in Norway, is
aiming to turn one of its factories into the world’s
first zero-emissions, cement-making plant. The
facility already uses alternative fuels from wastes
and intends to add carbon capture and storage
technologies to remove emissions entirely by 2030.
Additionally, researchers have been incorporating
bacteria into concrete formulations to absorb
carbon dioxide from the air and to improve its
properties. Start-ups pursuing “living” building
materials include BioMason in Raleigh, North
Carolina, which “grows” cementlike bricks using
bacteria and particles called aggregate. And in
an innovation funded by the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency and published in
February in the journal Matter, researchers at
the University of Colorado Boulder employed
photosynthetic microbes called cyanobacteria to
build a lower-carbon concrete. They inoculated
a sand-hydrogel scaffold with bacteria to create
bricks with an ability to self-heal cracks.
These bricks could not replace cement and
concrete in all of today’s applications. They could,
however, someday take the place of light-duty,
load-bearing materials, such as those used for
pavers, facades and temporary structures.
The manufacture of
cement creates up to
8% of human-produced
carbon dioxide.
4 billion tonnes
of cement are
produced every
year, but because
of increasing
urbanization, that
figure is expected
to rise to 5 billion
tonnes in the next
30 years
4bn
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
17
Quantum Sensing
8
High-precision metrology based on the
peculiarities of the subatomic realm
COMPUTING
Carlo Ratti
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
18
Quantum computers get all the hype, but
quantum sensors could be equally transformative,
enabling autonomous vehicles that can “see”
around corners, underwater navigation systems,
early-warning systems for volcanic activity and
earthquakes, and portable scanners that monitor a
person’s brain activity during daily life.
Quantum sensors reach extreme levels of precision
by exploiting the quantum nature of matter – using
the difference between, for example, electrons in
different energy states as a base unit. Atomic clocks
illustrate this principle. The world time standard is
based on the fact that electrons in caesium 133
atoms complete a specific transition 9,192,631,770
times a second; this is the oscillation that other
clocks are tuned against. Other quantum sensors
use atomic transitions to detect minuscule changes
in motion and tiny differences in gravitational,
electric and magnetic fields.
There are other ways to build a quantum sensor,
however. For example, researchers at the University
of Birmingham, in the United Kingdom, are working
to develop free-falling, supercooled atoms to detect
tiny changes in local gravity. This kind of quantum
gravimeter would be capable of detecting buried
pipes, cables and other objects that today can be
reliably found only by digging. Seafaring ships could
use similar technology to detect underwater objects.
Most quantum-sensing systems remain expensive,
oversized and complex, but a new generation
of smaller, more affordable sensors should
open up new applications. Researchers at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2019
used conventional fabrication methods to put a
diamond-based quantum sensor on a silicon chip,
squeezing multiple, traditionally bulky components
on to a square a few tenths of a millimetre wide.
The prototype is a step towards low-cost, mass-
produced quantum sensors that work at room
temperature and that could be used for any
application that involves taking fine measurements
of weak magnetic fields.
Quantum systems remain extremely susceptible
to disturbances, which could limit their application
to controlled environments. But governments and
private investors are throwing money at this and
other challenges, including those of cost, scale
and complexity. The UK, for example, has put
£315 million into the second phase of its National
Quantum Computing Programme (2019-2024).
Industry analysts expect quantum sensors
to reach the market in the next three to five
years, with an initial emphasis on medical and
defence applications.
Quantum
sensors reach
extreme levels
of precision by
exploiting the
quantum nature
of matter.
Industry analysts expect
quantum sensors
to reach the market in the
next three to five
years, with an initial
emphasis on medical and
defence applications.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
19
Green Hydrogen
9
Zero-carbon energy to supplement
wind and solar
ENERGY
Jeff Carbeck
Author
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
20
When hydrogen burns, the only by-product is
water – which is why hydrogen has been an alluring
zero-carbon energy source for decades. Yet the
traditional process for producing hydrogen, in
which fossil fuels are exposed to steam, is not even
remotely zero-carbon. Hydrogen produced this way
is called grey hydrogen; if the CO2 is captured and
sequestered, it is called blue hydrogen.
Green hydrogen is different. It is produced through
electrolysis, in which machines split water into
hydrogen and oxygen, with no other by-products.
Historically, electrolysis required so much electricity
that it made little sense to produce hydrogen that
way. The situation is changing for two reasons.
First, significant amounts of excess renewable
electricity have become available at grid scale;
rather than storing excess electricity in arrays of
batteries, the extra electricity can be used to drive
the electrolysis of water, “storing” the electricity in
the form of hydrogen. Second, electrolysers are
becoming more efficient.
Companies are working to develop electrolysers
that can produce green hydrogen as cheaply as
grey or blue hydrogen, and analysts expect them
to reach that goal in the next decade. Meanwhile,
energy companies are starting to integrate
electrolysers directly into renewable power
projects. For example, a consortium of companies
behind a project called Gigastack plans to equip
Ørsted’s Hornsea Two offshore wind farm with
100 megawatts of electrolysers to generate green
hydrogen at an industrial scale.
Current renewable technologies such as solar
and wind can decarbonize the energy sector by
as much as 85% by replacing gas and coal with
clean electricity. Other parts of the economy,
such as shipping and manufacturing, are harder
to electrify because they often require fuel that is
high in energy density or heat at high temperatures.
Green hydrogen has potential in these sectors. The
Energy Transitions Commission, an industry group,
says green hydrogen is one of four technologies
necessary for meeting the Paris Agreement goal of
abating more than 10 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide
a year from the most challenging industrial sectors,
among them mining, construction and chemicals.
The traditional
process for
producing
hydrogen, in
which fossil fuels
are exposed to
steam, is not
even remotely
zero-carbon.
Companies are working
to develop electrolysers
that can produce green
hydrogen as cheaply as
grey or blue hydrogen.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
21
Whole-Genome
Synthesis
10
Next-level cell engineering
SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
Andrew Hessel and Sang Yup Lee
Authors
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
22
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists in China
uploaded the virus’s genetic sequence (the blueprint
for its production) to genetic databases. A Swiss
group then synthesized the entire genome and
produced the virus from it – essentially teleporting
the virus into their laboratory for study without
having to wait for physical samples. Such speed
is one example of how whole-genome printing is
advancing medicine and other endeavours.
Whole-genome synthesis is an extension of the
booming field of synthetic biology. Researchers
use software to design genetic sequences that
they produce and introduce into a microbe,
thereby reprogramming the microbe to do desired
work – such as making a new medicine. So far
genomes mainly get light edits. But improvements
in synthesis technology and software are making
it possible to print ever larger swathes of genetic
material and to alter genomes more extensively.
Viral genomes, which are tiny, were produced
first, starting in 2002 with the poliovirus’s roughly
7,500 nucleotides, or code letters. As with the
coronavirus, these synthesized viral genomes
have helped investigators gain insight into
how the associated viruses spread and cause
disease. Some are being designed to serve in the
production of vaccines and immunotherapies.
Writing genomes that contain millions of
nucleotides, as in bacteria and yeast, has become
tractable as well. In 2019, a team printed a version
of the Escherichia coli genome that made room
for codes that could force the bacterium to do
scientists’ bidding. Another team has produced
an initial version of the brewer’s yeast genome,
which consists of almost 11 million code letters.
Genome design and synthesis at this scale will
allow microbes to serve as factories for producing
not only drugs but any number of substances.
They could be engineered to sustainably produce
chemicals, fuels and novel construction materials
from non-food biomass or even waste gases such
as carbon dioxide.
Many scientists want the ability to write larger
genomes, such as those from plants, animals and
humans. Getting there requires greater investment
in design software (most likely incorporating
artificial intelligence) and in faster, cheaper
methods for synthesizing and assembling DNA
sequences at least millions of nucleotides long.
With sufficient funding, the writing of genomes on
the billion-nucleotide scale could be a reality before
the end of this decade. Investigators have many
applications in mind, including the design of plants
that resist pathogens and an ultrasafe human
cell line – impervious, say, to virus infections,
cancer and radiation – that could be the basis
for cell-based therapies or for biomanufacturing.
The ability to write our own genome will inevitably
emerge, enabling doctors to cure many, if not all,
genetic diseases.
Of course, whole-genome engineering could be
misused, with the chief fear being weaponized
pathogens or their toxin-generating components.
Scientists and engineers will need to devise a
comprehensive biological security filter, a set of
existing and novel technologies able to detect and
monitor the spread of new threats in real time.
Investigators will need to invent testing strategies
that can scale rapidly. Critically, governments
around the world must cooperate much more than
they do now.
The Genome Project-write, a consortium formed in
2016, is positioned to facilitate this safety net. The
project includes hundreds of scientists, engineers
and ethicists from more than a dozen countries
who develop technologies, share best practices,
carry out pilot projects, and explore ethical, legal
and societal implications.
From our Archives
Top 10 Emerging
Technologies
of 2019. World
Economic Forum
and Scientific
American;
December 2019.
The ability
to write our
own genome
will inevitably
emerge, enabling
doctors to cure
many, if not all,
genetic diseases.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
23
Acknowledgements
The Steering Group
Mariette DiChristina, Steering Group Chair, is Dean and Professor of the
Practice in Journalism at the Boston University College of Communication.
She was Editor-in-Chief of Scientific American and Executive Vice-President,
Magazines, Springer Nature.
Bernard S. Meyerson, Steering Group Vice-Chair, is Chief Innovation Officer
Emeritus at IBM. He holds awards for work spanning physics, engineering
and business.
Anas Faris Al-Faris is President of the King Abdulaziz City for Science and
Technology in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Jeff Carbeck, who has built several companies, is CEO of 10EQS.
Rona Chandrawati is a Senior Lecturer and Head of the Nanotechnology for
Food and Medicine Laboratory at the University of New South Wales.
P. Murali Doraiswamy, a Physician, Inventor and Professor at the Duke
University School of Medicine, is a leading researcher in future technologies
and precision medicine and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global
Future Councils.
Seth Fletcher is Chief Features Editor of Scientific American.
Javier Garcia Martinez is a Professor of Inorganic Chemistry and Director
of the Molecular Nanotechnology Laboratory at the University of Alicante.
Katherine Hamilton is Director of the Project for Clean Energy and Innovation
and Chair of 38 North Solutions. She has led several Forum councils.
Rigas Hadzilacos is Project Lead of the Forum’s Preparing for the Future
of Work initiative.
Daniel E. Hurtado is an Associate Professor at the Pontifical Catholic
University of Chile. The Forum named him one of the 10 most influential
scientists of the future.
Wendy Ju is an Assistant Professor at the Jacobs Technion-Cornell Institute
at Cornell Tech. Ju is a member of the Forum’s Global Autonomous and Urban
Mobility Council.
Corinna E. Lathan is Co-Founder and CEO of AnthroTronix and on the board
of PTC. Lathan was Founding Co-Chair of the Forum’s Global Future Council on
Human Enhancement.
Sang Yup Lee, a Co-Chair of the Forum’s Global Future Council on
Biotechnology, is Distinguished Professor of Chemical and Biomolecular
Engineering at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. He
holds more than 700 patents.
Geoffrey Ling, a retired US Army colonel, is an expert in technology
development and commercial transition. He is a Professor of Neurology at Johns
Hopkins University and the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences
and a Partner of Ling and Associates.
Tammy Ma is Program Leader for High-Intensity Laser Science at Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory.
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
24
Andrew Maynard is Director of the Risk Innovation Lab at Arizona State
University. His work focuses on the responsible development and use of
emerging technologies.
Ruth Morgan is a Professor of Crime and Forensic Science at University
College London and Director of the UCL Centre for the Forensic Sciences.
She is a member of the Forum’s Global Future Council on Virtual and
Augmented Reality.
Elizabeth O’Day is CEO and Founder of Olaris and Co-Chair of the Forum’s
Global Future Council on Biotechnology.
Carlo Ratti is Director of the Senseable City Lab at MIT and a Founding Partner
of Carlo Ratti Associati.
Barry Shoop, who retired from the U Army as a brigadier-general, is Dean of the
Albert Nerken School of Engineering at the Cooper Union.
Maria-Elena Torres-Padilla is Director of the Institute of Epigenetics and Stem
Cells at the Helmholtz Center Munich and a Professor of Stem Cell Biology at
the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
Sophia M. Velastegui is CTO of artificial intelligence for Dynamics 365
Operation Apps at Microsoft. She is an AI expert for the Forum’s Global Future
Council on Advanced Manufacturing and Production.
Angela Wu is an Assistant Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science
and Technology and Co-Founder of Agenovir Corporation, a CRISPR-based
therapeutics company.
Xu Xun is CEO of the global genomics organization BGI Group. He is a member
of the Forum’s Global Future Council on Biotechnology.
Guest author
Andrew Hessel is President of Humane Genomics.
Production team
Alistair Millen, Designer, Studio Miko
Ann Brady, Editor, World Economic Forum
Ricki Rusting Contributing Editor, Scientific American
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2020
25
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